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MSU

Michigan State 24 at Rutgers 27

RUTG
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · SHI Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+15.3RUTG 22.5%Aaron Young 0 Yd Fumble Return (JaiPatel Kick)AWAY 24 - HOME 13 · Q4 13:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:09 · Aaron Young 0 Yd Fumble Return (Jai Patel Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense−20.6Pregame prior+2.7Score differential−9.4Garbage-time factor−10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:46: Katin Houser run for 12 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +17.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:41: Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +17.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:09: Aaron Young 0 Yd Fumble Return (Jai Patel Kick) — RUTG win probability +15.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:30: Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 4 yds for a TD (Gavin Wimsatt pass to Christian Dremel for Two-Point Conversion) — RUTG win probability +27.8 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 8:21: Kyle Monangai run for 21 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — RUTG win probability +29.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 9:00MSU 4th & 1 at RUTG 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.5%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:35RUTG 4th & 1 at MSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.9%−0.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:52RUTG 4th & 4 at MSU 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.0%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−3.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:42MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:21RUTG 4th & 4 at MSU 29, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%−0.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:18RUTG 4th & 1 at MSU 37, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−2.6
    40% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:24RUTG 4th & 10 at MSU 35, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:50MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 48, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02MSU 4th & 2 at RUTG 14, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%−1.0
    84% to make
    Punt
    54.0%−7.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:16RUTG 4th & 6 at MSU 45, down 11
    Close callPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−1.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:36RUTG 4th & 18 at RUTG 17, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.6%−4.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:09MSU 4th & 21 at MSU 22, up 18
    Numbers favored punt by 3.2 ptsWent for it · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.3%−3.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:15MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−2.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:05MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:32MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:46MSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:41MSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:09RUTG Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:30RUTG Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:21RUTG Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:2137% → 42%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.8%
Nathan Carter run for 7 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
62.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 4 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
62.7%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the MSU 41Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
62.6%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
62.5%
Katin Houser run for 7 yds to the RUTG 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
62.4%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 11
50
+12
62.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 12 yds to the RUTG 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
62.2%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the RUTG 36Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+1
62.1%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the RUTG 35Similar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+6
62.1%
Harold Joiner III run for 6 yds to the RUTG 29Similar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+3
62.1%
Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the RUTG 26 Katin Houser fumbled, recovered by MSU for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
61.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 13 yds to the RUTG 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
61.4%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the RUTG 13Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
58.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 13 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:3960% → 61%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
59.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Christian Dremel for 29 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
60.3%
Kyle Monangai run for 5 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
60.5%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+4
59.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Christian Dremel for 4 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+8
59.4%
Kyle Monangai run for 8 yds to the MSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
60.1%
Kyle Monangai run for 10 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
59.9%
Kyle Monangai run for 3 yds to the MSU 6Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
59.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Johnny Langan for 2 yds to the MSU 4Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
59.0%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
60.6%
Jai Patel 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0640% → 40%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.0%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 26Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
59.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 5 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
59.7%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
60.3%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:0960% → 61%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
59.5%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Ian Strong for 27 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
61.0%
Kyle Monangai run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 49Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+14
60.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Christian Dremel for 14 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-11
61.5%
Gavin Wimsatt sacked by Cal Haladay for a loss of 11 yards to the MSU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 46
+17
59.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Christian Dremel for 17 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
60.8%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+47
61.3%
Jai Patel 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5FUMBLE
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:2340% → 42%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
60.0%
Katin Houser run for 10 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
59.6%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+10
59.7%
Jalen Berger run for 10 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
59.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-3
59.5%
Jalen Berger run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 25Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
60.2%
HOUSER, Katin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MOSLEY, Tre thrown to the RU45, clock 11:07. PENALTY RU Pass Interference on LONGERBEAM, Robert declined RU Roughing the Passer on DIXON, Flip enforced 15 yards from the MSU25 to the MSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
58.0%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+12
57.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaron Glover for 12 yds to the RUTG 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
56.9%
Katin Houser run for a loss of 3 yards to the RUTG 47Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+5
57.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Alante Brown for 5 yds Alante Brown fumbled, recovered by RUTG Desmond IgbinosunSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6MISSED FG
9 plays · 11 yds · 3:0463% → 56%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
62.5%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 2 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
62.5%
Samuel Brown V run for 5 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
61.2%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 2 yds to the MSU 37Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
60.1%
Samuel Brown V run for 2 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
62.3%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
62.3%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
60.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+53
58.2%
Jude McAtamney 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
56.4%
HOUSER, Katin pass deep to the left incomplete intended for GLOVER, Jaron thrown to the RU30, clock 06:18. PENALTY RU Pass Interference on ROGERS, Eric enforced 15 yards to the MSU50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:1045% → 47%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
50
+4
54.7%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the RUTG 46Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+4
54.5%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the RUTG 42Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
54.3%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the RUTG 41Similar
Q2 4:19
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+15
55.8%
Rutgers Penalty, Targeting on POWELL, Tyreem enforced (Tyreem Powell) to the RUTG 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
53.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 7 yds fumbled, recovered by RUTG Robert LongerbeamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:5758% → 53%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
58.2%
Kyle Monangai run for 9 yds to the RUTG 27Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+2
59.8%
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds to the RUTG 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
58.0%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
57.6%
Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Derrick Harmon) to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
53.3%
Michigan State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Katin Houser) to the MSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0745% → 43%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+2
54.7%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 13
OWN 45
0
54.6%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+3
55.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 3 yds to the MSU 48Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
56.7%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
39.4%
Katin Houser run for 12 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11INT
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:1244% → 46%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
43.8%
Rutgers Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the RUTG 20Similar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+29
43.5%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to JaQuae Jackson for 29 yds to the RUTG 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
46.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 1:2758% → 62%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
41.8%
Jalen Berger run for 6 yds to the MSU 42Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+15
41.4%
(01:25) HOUSER, Katin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GLOVER, Jaron thrown to the RU23, clock 01:22. PENALTY RU Pass Interference on LONGERBEAM, Robert enforced 15 yards to the RU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
40.3%
HOUSER, Katin pass deep to the right intercepted by LONGERBEAM, Robert at the RU17 intended for FITZPATRICK, Christian. Longerbeam return for 19 yards to the RU36, out of bounds, clock 01:13. PENALTY RU Offsides on BAILEY, Wesley enforced 5 yards from the RU43 to the RU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+4
39.7%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the RUTG 34Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
39.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
39.8%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the RUTG 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
39.1%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+10
39.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jalen Berger for 10 yds to the RUTG 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
38.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 8 yds to the RUTG 14Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
38.0%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
38.6%
Katin Houser run for no gain to the RUTG 14Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+37
37.7%
Jonathan Kim 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by WIMSATT, Gavin at RU20 (team loss of 5), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:3439% → 34%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.3%
Kyle Monangai run for 3 yds to the RUTG 28Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
39.2%
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds to the RUTG 30Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
38.0%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Johnny Langan for 11 yds to the RUTG 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
39.3%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Christian Dremel for 5 yds to the RUTG 46Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
39.2%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 5 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
39.5%
Kyle Monangai run for no gain to the MSU 49Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
38.5%
Gavin Wimsatt run for 4 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
36.6%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
34.4%
Flynn Appleby punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:2865% → 91%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
34.7%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
33.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaron Glover for 3 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+9
33.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 9 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
32.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 8 yds to the MSU 43Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
30.4%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
29.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 8 yds to the RUTG 46Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+8
28.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 8 yds to the RUTG 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
28.8%
Jalen Berger run for 6 yds to the RUTG 32Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 4
OPP 32
0
27.5%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+12
27.9%
Jalen Berger run for 12 yds to the RUTG 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
26.9%
Jalen Berger run for 8 yds to the RUTG 12Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+3
26.3%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the RUTG 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
25.8%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the RUTG 4Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
8.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 4 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:5115% → 13%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
15.4%
Gavin Wimsatt sacked by Brandon Wright for a loss of 8 yards to the RUTG 17Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
13.5%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
13.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:36
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
13.4%
Flynn Appleby punt for 61 yds, downed at the MSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · -22 yds · 4:1491% → 78%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
8.8%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 23Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+10
8.5%
Nathan Carter run for 10 yds to the MSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
8.0%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 31Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 12
OWN 31
0
7.5%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:18
3RD & 12
OWN 31
-4
7.6%
Katin Houser sacked by Max Melton for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 27Similar
Q4 14:31
4TH & 16
OWN 27
-5
7.3%
(14:31) O'SHAUGHNESSY, Michael punt 38 yards to the RU35 downed by WILSON, Drew , clock 14:28. PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MSU27 to the MSU22. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:09
4TH & 21
OWN 22
0
22.5%
Aaron Young 0 Yd Fumble Return (Jai Patel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:2279% → 78%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.8%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
20.6%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 23Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+1
21.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Evan Morris for 1 yd to the MSU 24Similar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
21.8%
Ryan Eckley punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Christian Dremel at the RUTG 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:4521% → 48%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
20.6%
Gavin Wimsatt sacked by Khalil Majeed for a loss of 5 yards to the RUTG 22Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+24
19.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 24 yds to the RUTG 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
22.3%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+17
21.3%
Kyle Monangai run for 17 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
23.2%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
22.6%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Ian Strong for 4 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+6
19.4%
Kyle Monangai run for 6 yds to the MSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
21.3%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Christian Dremel for 11 yds to the MSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
21.0%
Kyle Monangai run for 12 yds to the MSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
20.8%
Kyle Monangai run for no gain to the MSU 4Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
20.5%
Gavin Wimsatt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
48.4%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 4 yds for a TD (Gavin Wimsatt pass to Christian Dremel for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20TD
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
77.4%
Kyle Monangai run for 21 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0932% → 31%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.1%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 26Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
68.2%
Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
68.7%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
69.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22END OF GAME
15 plays · 26 yds · 7:0173% → 95%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.6%
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds to the RUTG 27Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
74.0%
Kyle Monangai run for 11 yds to the RUTG 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
75.8%
Kyle Monangai run for 2 yds to the RUTG 40Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
77.9%
Kyle Monangai run for 6 yds to the RUTG 46Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+4
80.9%
Kyle Monangai run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
50
+1
84.5%
Kyle Monangai run for 1 yd to the MSU 49Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+9
87.2%
Kyle Monangai run for 9 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
89.3%
Kyle Monangai run for 5 yds to the MSU 35Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+11
91.0%
Kyle Monangai run for 11 yds to the MSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
91.1%
(02:04) [NHSG] Kneel down by WIMSATT, Gavin at MSU36 (team loss of 12), clock 02:00.Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 22
OPP 36
0
91.7%
(01:21) [NHSG] Kneel down by WIMSATT, Gavin at MSU43 (team loss of 7), clock 01:17.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 29
OPP 43
0
95.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by WIMSATT, Gavin at MSU49 (team loss of 6).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:21
Kyle Monangai run for 21 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+29.1
TD · Q4 8:30
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 4 yds for a TD (Gavin Wimsatt pass to Christian Dremel for Two-Point Conversion)
+27.8
TD · Q2 1:46
Katin Houser run for 12 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)
-17.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com