2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMASS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [SG] Kneel down by PRIBULA, Beau at PSU30 (team loss of 4), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:35: Drew Allar run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:20: Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:01: Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:29: Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 30 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MASS made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 10:29MASS 4th & 18 at MASS 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q1 6:33PSU 4th & 22 at PSU 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.28% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.2%average punt
- Q1 4:17MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q1 1:29MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q2 9:50MASS 4th & 4 at PSU 47, down 14Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 3:38MASS 4th & 22 at MASS 6, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q2 0:37MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 26, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.330% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 13:54MASS 4th & 18 at MASS 17, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 13:54PSU 4th & 2 at MASS 43, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%57% to convertField goal99.5%−0.228% to makePunt99.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 8:05MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 45, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 3:57MASS 4th & 2 at MASS 33, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 10:45MASS 4th & 12 at PSU 41, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−<0.124% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 0:37MASS 4th & 6 at PSU 34, down 63Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goal0.0%47% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 4:17PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:35PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:20PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:01PSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:29PSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:12PSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:57PSU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:37PSU Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:28PSU Touchdown, up 62 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPSUDrive 1FUMBLE8 plays · 39 yds · 3:2299% → 99%
Q1 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+5
99.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 5 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
99.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 8 yds to the MASS 49Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+11
99.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 11 yds fumbled, recovered by MASS Tyler RudolphSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:011% → 1%
Q1 11:30
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-8
99.1%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Dani Dennis-Sutton and Adisa Isaac for a loss of 8 yards to the MASS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 3:5699% → 99%
Q1 10:29
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+7
99.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 7 yds to the PSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
99.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 45Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+10
99.0%
ALLAR, Drew pass up the middle incomplete intended for LAMBERT-SMITH, KeAndre thrown to the MAS45. PENALTY MAS Pass Interference on RUTHERFORD, Isaiah enforced 10 yards to the MAS45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 14
OPP 49
-8
99.0%
Drew Allar sacked by JB Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the PSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4PUNT TD4 plays · 3 yds · 2:161% → 1%
Q1 6:33
3RD & 6
OWN 14
-1
98.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for a loss of 1 yard to the MASS 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:441% → 2%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Anthony Simpson for no gain to the MASS 25Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
98.7%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to George Johnson III for 16 yds to the MASS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.6%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for no gain to the MASS 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD8 plays · 71 yds · 3:5498% → 99%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
98.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 9 yds to the MASS 44Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
98.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 8 yds to the MASS 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+21
98.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 21 yds to the MASS 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
98.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 9 yds to the MASS 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 28 yds · 2:452% → 2%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
98.4%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Cam Miller for a loss of 3 yards to the MASS 22Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+15
98.5%
Penn State Penalty, Roughing the Passer enforced (15 Yards) to the MASS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-7
98.4%
Taisun Phommachanh sacked by Chop Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the MASS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3098% → 99%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
98.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 12 yds to the MASS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
98.5%
ALLAR, Drew pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LAMBERT-SMITH, KeAndre thrown to the MAS0. PENALTY MAS Pass Interference on RUTHERFORD, Isaiah enforced 15 yards to the MAS21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
98.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 9 yds to the MASS 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 2:361% → 1%
PSUDrive 10TD7 plays · 35 yds · 2:3799% → 100%
MASSDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:190% → 0%
MASSDrive 12END OF HALF4 plays · 3 yds · 0:460% → 0%
MASSDrive 13PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:060% → 0%
PSUDrive 14TD6 plays · 51 yds · 2:25100% → 100%
Q3 13:54
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 7 yds to the MASS 44Similar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.8%
ALLEN, Kaytron rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the MAS30 (BROWN, JB). PENALTY MAS Offsides enforced 5 yards from the MAS35 to the MAS30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 5
OPP 30
+30
99.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 30 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:240% → 0%
Q3 11:29
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+16
99.8%
Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 16 yds to the MASS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD8 plays · 54 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 18 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT TD4 plays · 8 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q3 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Ahmad Haston pass complete to George Johnson III for 8 yds to the MASS 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18INT8 plays · 6 yds · 3:510% → 0%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 31
-15
100.0%
Ahmad Haston pass intercepted for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Block below the waist enforced (15 Yards) to the MASS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD5 plays · 49 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
99.9%
Massachusetts Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nahji Logan) to the MASS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
99.9%
PRIBULA, Beau pass to the left incomplete intended for EVANS, Omari thrown to the MAS0. PENALTY MAS Offsides on DYSON, Donovan declined MAS Pass Interference on BOYKIN, Noah enforced 12 yards to the MAS2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 2:520% → 0%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
100.0%
HASTON, Ahmad pass to the left incomplete intended for SIMPSON, Anthony thrown to the MAS30. PENALTY PSU Roughing the Passer on LYONS, Jameial enforced 15 yards from the MAS35 to the MAS50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-2
100.0%
Jalen John run for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 36 Jalen John fumbled, recovered by MASS Jalen JohnSimilar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 7
OPP 36
-5
100.0%
Massachusetts Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the PSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22DOWNS15 plays · 48 yds · 7:440% → 0%
Q4 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
100.0%
Ahmad Haston pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 3 yds to the MASS 23Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+9
100.0%
Ahmad Haston pass complete to Mark Pope for 9 yds to the MASS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-5
100.0%
Massachusetts Penalty, False Start (Ethan Mottinger) to the PSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23END OF GAME1 play · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
100.0%
[SG] Kneel down by PRIBULA, Beau at PSU30 (team loss of 4), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:20
Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)
+0.7
TD · Q2 1:01
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 12:35
Drew Allar run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)
+0.3