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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:19 · Tommy Doman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lucas at the IU 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:17: Donaven McCulley pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 44 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — IU win probability +1.5 pts (now 5%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:24: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +1.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:11: Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +2.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:22: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 54 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:28: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 7 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5IU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 13:51IU 4th & 11 at IU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q1 12:19MICH 4th & 21 at MICH 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snapGo for it96.9%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.1%average punt
- Q1 5:08MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.7%average punt
- Q2 8:53IU 4th & 2 at MICH 48, tiedClose callPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it8.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 3:24MICH 4th & 2 at IU 2, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.3%48% to convertField goal89.8%−0.694% to makePunt87.8%−2.5average punt
- Q2 1:40IU 4th & 16 at IU 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.1%−0.814% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q3 10:46IU 4th & 23 at IU 12, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.86% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 5:18MICH 4th & 5 at IU 10, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%88% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 0:49IU 4th & 3 at MICH 32, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%53% to convertField goal0.1%−0.151% to makePunt-0.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 6:03MICH 4th & 4 at IU 4, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%40% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.193% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 5:57IU 4th & 2 at MICH 40, down 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%57% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.134% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:06IU 4th & 3 at MICH 31, down 45Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.152% to convertField goal0.0%54% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7IU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 2:17IU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.9%97% to makeGo for two5.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:19MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:24MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.8%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:11MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:22MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:28MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:02MICH Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:03MICH Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:092% → 2%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.2%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for a loss of 1 yard to the IU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 1:3298% → 98%
IUDrive 3INT13 plays · 60 yds · 5:442% → 3%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
97.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Cam Camper for 6 yds to the IU 30Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+10
97.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Bradley Archer for 10 yds to the IU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
97.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Cam Camper for 15 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
97.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 7 yds to the MICH 36Similar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
97.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 5 yds to the MICH 24Similar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+10
97.9%
Tayven Jackson pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 10 yds to the MICH 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2797% → 97%
Q1 6:35
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-3
97.2%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Lanell Carr Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5TD7 plays · 77 yds · 2:513% → 5%
MICHDrive 6TD11 plays · 77 yds · 5:5495% → 95%
Q1 2:13
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+13
95.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 13 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
94.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 13 yds to the IU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+15
94.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 15 yds to the IU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+15
95.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 15 yds to the IU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 2:206% → 7%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
94.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 6 yds to the IU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD13 plays · 87 yds · 5:2994% → 95%
Q2 8:53
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+17
94.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 17 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+23
93.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Tyler Morris for 23 yds to the IU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
93.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Tyler Morris for 14 yds to the IU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
93.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 18 yds to the IU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -6 yds · 1:446% → 5%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for no gain to the IU 25Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-37
94.6%
SORSBY, Brendan pass deep to the right complete for 37 yards to MCCULLEY, Donaven caught at the MIC38 and advanced to the MIC38, End of Play. PENALTY IU Face mask on CARPENTER, Zach enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the IU25 to the IU11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD7 plays · 46 yds · 1:2995% → 96%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
94.7%
Indiana Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Marcus Burris Jr.) to the IU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+7
94.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 7 yds to the IU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
94.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 16 yds to the IU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
96.2%
[NH] Kneel down by SORSBY, Brendan at IU10 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD5 plays · 65 yds · 2:3197% → 99%
IUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · -13 yds · 1:362% → 2%
Q3 12:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-13
98.4%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Jaylen Harrell for a loss of 13 yards to the IU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14TD5 plays · 52 yds · 2:1899% → 100%
Q3 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 7 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15FUMBLE3 plays · -10 yds · 0:500% → 0%
MICHDrive 16FG5 plays · 5 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17DOWNS13 plays · 26 yds · 4:290% → 0%
Q3 5:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
99.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 7 yds to the IU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+17
99.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+8
99.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Cam Camper for 8 yds to the MICH 32Similar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
99.8%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Rayshaun Benny for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD8 plays · 51 yds · 3:47100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
99.9%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Roman Wilson for 5 yds to the IU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19INT2 plays · -5 yds · 0:160% → 0%
MICHDrive 20TD9 plays · 36 yds · 5:43100% → 100%
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.9%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Benjamin Hall for no gain to the IU 21Similar
Q4 11:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.9%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 4 yds to the IU 4Similar
Q4 6:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
100.0%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Karmello English for 4 yds for a TD (Adam Samaha KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21DOWNS13 plays · 51 yds · 5:510% → 0%
Q4 5:57
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+7
100.0%
Brendan Sorsby run for 7 yds to the MICH 40 Brendan Sorsby fumbled, recovered by IU Mike KaticSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22END OF GAME1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:11
Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q3 12:22
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 54 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q2 3:24
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+1.8