Try the model
ILL

Illinois 27 at Maryland 24

MD
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · SECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:26 · Hugh Robertson punt for 53 yds, downed at the MD 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Pregame prior+26.0Home team on offense−0.8Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:09: Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +11.1 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:33: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +17.0 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:00: Antwain Littleton II run for 4 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +19.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 1:31: Jack Howes 48 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +15.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Caleb Griffin 43 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +33.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:44MD 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:28MD 4th & 9 at MD 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:06MD 4th & 2 at ILL 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−4.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:26ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:29MD 4th & 5 at MD 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:01ILL 4th & 10 at MD 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:13ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:09ILL 4th & 1 at MD 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:12MD 4th & 15 at ILL 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−3.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−8.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:18ILL 4th & 5 at MD 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−9.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:18MD 4th & 2 at ILL 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−1.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    28.2%−10.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:25ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−6.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:44MD 4th & 2 at MD 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:33ILL 4th & 2 at MD 45, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%−8.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−4.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:30MD 4th & 12 at MD 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:14ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−3.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:31MD 4th & 7 at ILL 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−9.0
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−18.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00ILL 4th & 5 at MD 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−14.8
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−26.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:20ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:06MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:46MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:09ILL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:33ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:00MD Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:1685% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
85.4%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
85.4%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+7
85.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 7 yds to the MD 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
85.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
85.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 11 yds fumbled, recovered by MD Octavian Smith Jr. , return to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
85.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
50
0
85.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dylan Wade for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
50
0
85.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 10
50
0
84.4%
Colton Spangler punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 3:2416% → 19%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
84.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 12 yds to the ILL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
84.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+13
84.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 13 yds to the ILL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
84.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the ILL 48Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
84.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 4 yds to the MD 48Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
84.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the MD 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
81.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 44 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5282% → 81%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.9%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
82.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 14 yds to the MD 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
82.2%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 44Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
82.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
82.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
80.7%
Colton Spangler punt for 50 yds, downed at the ILL 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4INT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:5119% → 22%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
80.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+1
80.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the ILL 7Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+18
80.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 18 yds to the ILL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
80.6%
Luke Altmyer run for 13 yds to the ILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
80.3%
Aidan Laughery run for 3 yds to the ILL 41Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
80.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
78.3%
Luke Altmyer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 3:3180% → 81%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
79.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 11 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
79.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 9 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+20
80.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Preston Howard for 20 yds to the ILL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
80.2%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the ILL 12Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
80.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 6 yds to the ILL 6Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+2
79.9%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the ILL 4Similar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
81.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Sean Greeley for 4 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:3420% → 21%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.0%
Aidan Laughery run for 6 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
79.6%
Aidan Laughery run for 3 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
79.7%
Kaden Feagin run for 9 yds to the ILL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
79.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 8 yds to the MD 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
78.8%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the MD 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-8
79.1%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Fa'Najae Gotay for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 43Similar
Q2 11:26
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
79.0%
Hugh Robertson punt for 53 yds, downed at the MD 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5779% → 78%
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
79.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for no gain to the MD 4Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 4
0
79.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+5
78.5%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass to the left incomplete thrown to the UMD15. PENALTY ILL Offsides on HOLMES, Ezekiel enforced 5 yards from the UMD4 to the UMD9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 5
OWN 9
0
78.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:29
4TH & 5
OWN 9
0
77.8%
Colton Spangler punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8MISSED FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2824% → 23%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
76.1%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Donnell Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 29Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+2
76.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the MD 27Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
76.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
77.1%
Caleb Griffin 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:1579% → 85%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+24
78.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 24 yds to the ILL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
80.0%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the ILL 46Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
80.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+9
79.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 9 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
80.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+2
80.4%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+5
79.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Antwain Littleton II for 5 yds to the ILL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
84.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 27 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3317% → 17%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.9%
Aidan Laughery run for 5 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
82.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 6 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
82.4%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Kellan Wyatt for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 32Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+4
83.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 4 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
82.7%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Jaishawn Barham for 0 yards to the ILL 36Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
83.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11FUMBLE
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:3684% → 84%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
84.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 15 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
84.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 7 yds to the ILL 35Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-5
84.5%
Maryland Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ILL 40Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
84.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 7 yds to the ILL 33Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+6
83.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 6 yds Kaden Prather fumbled, recovered by ILL Kenenna OdelugaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 1:2818% → 31%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
81.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 6 yds to the ILL 33Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+17
81.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
50
+15
79.9%
ALTMYER, Luke scrambles up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the UMD48, End of Play. PENALTY UMD Personal Foul on FULLER, Quashon enforced 15 yards from the ILL50 to the UMD35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
78.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 10 yds to the MD 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
79.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ashton Hollins for 4 yds to the MD 21Similar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
79.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+9
79.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 9 yds to the MD 2Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
80.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
69.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
74.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by TAGOVAILOA, Taulia at UMD18 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:2230% → 49%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
69.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 8 yds to the ILL 49Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-5
68.9%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (James Kreutz) to the ILL 44Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+7
69.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 7 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
68.9%
ALTMYER, Luke sacked for a loss of 9 yards at the ILL42 (FULLER, Quashon). PENALTY UMD Face mask on FULLER, Quashon enforced 15 yards from the UMD49 to the UMD34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
68.2%
Kaden Feagin run for 8 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+1
67.9%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd to the MD 25Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+4
68.9%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the MD 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
67.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
68.2%
Kaden Feagin run for 6 yds to the MD 15Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+15
51.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:2156% → 51%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.0%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+18
57.6%
Roman Hemby run for 18 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
59.2%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass deep to the left incomplete intended for PRATHER, Kaden thrown to the ILL12. PENALTY ILL Pass Interference on STRAIN, Tyler enforced 15 yards to the ILL36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
60.1%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+12
61.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 12 yds to the ILL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
61.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 1 yd to the ILL 21Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 9
OPP 21
-6
61.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Seth Coleman for a loss of 6 yards to the ILL 27Similar
Q3 10:33
3RD & 15
OPP 27
0
57.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 15
OPP 27
+45
51.1%
Jack Howes 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:5451% → 61%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
48.7%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+15
48.7%
ALTMYER, Luke pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Casey thrown to the ILL45. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on COLEY JR., Corey enforced 15 yards to the ILL44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
46.6%
Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
46.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+26
46.9%
Luke Altmyer run for 26 yds to the MD 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
45.2%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd to the MD 26Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+4
45.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the MD 22Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
46.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
39.1%
Caleb Griffin 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:1840% → 64%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
39.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 14 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
42.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
41.6%
Antwain Littleton II run for 4 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+12
41.9%
Roman Hemby run for 12 yds to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
44.6%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
44.7%
Maryland Penalty, Offensive Holding (Aric Harris) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+13
40.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 13 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+11
40.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 11 yds to the ILL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
44.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
44.7%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass deep to the left incomplete intended for CHAMBERS, Tyrese thrown to the ILL0. PENALTY ILL Offsides on BRYANT, Alec enforced 5 yards from the ILL16 to the ILL11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+7
44.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 7 yds to the ILL 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for 4 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2849% → 44%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
50.9%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 46Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
50.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-11
51.5%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Fa'Najae Gotay and Taizse Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the ILL 35Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
55.6%
Hugh Robertson punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4157% → 53%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 6 yds to the MD 31Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
56.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Antwain Littleton II for 2 yds to the MD 33Similar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
52.6%
Colton Spangler punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:1155% → 58%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.9%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the ILL 47Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
45.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 8 yds to the MD 45Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
45.1%
Luke Altmyer run for no gain to the MD 45Similar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
41.7%
Hugh Robertson punt for 41 yds, downed at the MD 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 4:0349% → 41%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
48.9%
Antwain Littleton II run for 4 yds to the MD 8Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+4
48.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 4 yds Kaden Prather fumbled, recovered by MD Kaden PratherSimilar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+12
47.4%
Antwain Littleton II run for 12 yds to the MD 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
50.0%
Jeshaun Jones pass complete to Taulia Tagovailoa for 21 yds to the MD 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
53.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 5
50
0
55.2%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 5
50
-7
54.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Seth Coleman for a loss of 7 yards to the MD 43Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
40.9%
Colton Spangler punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1767% → 69%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
33.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 3 yds to the ILL 20Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
33.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
33.2%
Hugh Robertson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the MD 32Similar
Q4 4:13
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+2
31.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the ILL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:4339% → 60%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
38.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
50
+17
44.2%
Roman Hemby run for 17 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
48.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 1 yd to the ILL 32Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+3
47.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-1
45.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 30Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+48
60.2%
Jack Howes 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 1:3149% → 93%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+29
49.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 29 yds to the MD 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
43.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Aidan Laughery for 12 yds to the MD 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
38.7%
Aidan Laughery run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 31Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+9
38.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 9 yds to the MD 22Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-3
40.0%
Luke Altmyer run for a loss of 3 yards to the MD 25Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
6.9%
Caleb Griffin 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Caleb Griffin 43 yd FG GOOD
-33
TD · Q3 0:00
Antwain Littleton II run for 4 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+19.5
TD · Q3 10:33
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)
-17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com