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AUB

Auburn 18 at LSU 48

LSU
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:20 · Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Pregame prior+26.2Home team on offense+2.4Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:15: John Emery Jr. 2 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick) — LSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:22: Jarquez Hunter 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick) — AUB win probability +5.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 10:21: Damian Ramos 35 Yd Field Goal — LSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:00: Kyren Lacy 25 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick) — LSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:56: Brandon Frazier 3 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Robby Ashford Pass to Brandon Frazier for Two-Point Conversion) — AUB win probability +7.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:06AUB 4th & 20 at AUB 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:39LSU 4th & 9 at AUB 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    77.1%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:20AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:21LSU 4th & 6 at AUB 18, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−4.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:23AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:22LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 36, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:16AUB 4th & 17 at AUB 13, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:09AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 47, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:35AUB 4th & 7 at LSU 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−3.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:57AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:29AUB 4th & 4 at LSU 14, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:09AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 45, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 13:21LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:15LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:22AUB Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:00LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:53LSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:56AUB Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:51LSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:28LSU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3381% → 81%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+35
80.6%
Logan Diggs run for 35 yds to the AUB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
80.5%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+29
80.8%
Malik Nabers 29 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 1:1519% → 19%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.6%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Kam Stutts) to the AUB 20Similar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
80.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 7 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
80.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Luke DealSimilar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-12
80.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the AUB 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AUB Jarquez HunterSimilar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
80.7%
Oscar Chapman punt for 53 yds , Gregory Clayton Jr. returns for no gain to the LSU 15 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:2281% → 81%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
80.7%
Logan Diggs run for 8 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+3
80.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 3 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+26
80.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 26 yds to the AUB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
81.0%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+5
81.1%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
81.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+17
81.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 17 yds to the AUB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
81.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the AUB 9Similar
Q1 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+2
81.0%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the AUB 7Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 4
OPP 7
-5
80.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AUB 12Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
80.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+30
80.6%
Damian Ramos 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0619% → 19%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
81.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 20Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+4
81.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 4 yds to the AUB 24Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
81.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Koy Moore, broken up by Andre' SamSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
81.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:5681% → 86%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
80.9%
John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-5
81.3%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Lance Heard) to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+49
80.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 49 yds to the AUB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
81.4%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the AUB 10Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
81.4%
John Emery Jr. run for 2 yds to the AUB 8Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+6
81.1%
John Emery Jr. run for 6 yds to the AUB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.9%
John Emery Jr. 2 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:4315% → 20%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
84.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 15 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
84.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 12 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
84.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+10
84.4%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Hooks, Shane, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Alexander, Zy) 10 yards to the LSU35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
84.0%
Payton Thorne run for 16 yds to the LSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
84.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Shane HooksSimilar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
84.8%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (Mekhi Wingo) to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+2
84.7%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+10
85.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 10 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.6%
Jarquez Hunter 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:5380% → 85%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
80.4%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Eugene Asante for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+11
80.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 11 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+22
80.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 22 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
81.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 13 yds to the AUB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
81.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the AUB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
81.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
81.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik Nabers, broken up by Donovan KaufmanSimilar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+9
81.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 9 yds to the AUB 13Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 1
OPP 13
-5
80.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AUB 18Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
85.4%
Damian Ramos 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:4915% → 15%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.7%
Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
84.6%
Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
84.7%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
84.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Rivaldo Fairweather, broken up by Zy AlexanderSimilar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
84.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Shane HooksSimilar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
85.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5686% → 84%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.0%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
85.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 13 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
85.8%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
86.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik Nabers, broken up by Nehemiah PritchettSimilar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
84.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy, broken up by Kayin LeeSimilar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
83.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Koy Moore at the AUB 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:5915% → 14%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
85.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Nick Mardner, broken up by Zy AlexanderSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
85.2%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 19Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-5
85.5%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Avery Jones) to the AUB 14Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 16
OWN 14
-7
85.6%
Thorne, Payton rush for 17 yards to the AUBURN31, PENALTY AUBURN holding (Wade, Dillon) 7 yards to the AUBURN7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 23
OWN 7
+6
86.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 13Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
85.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:1886% → 86%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
50
+7
85.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 7 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+4
85.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
85.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 5 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-3
86.1%
Jayden Daniels pass intercepted D.J. James return for 3 yds to the AUB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:3614% → 14%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
85.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 20Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+6
86.0%
Robby Ashford run for 6 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+10
85.8%
Robby Ashford run for 10 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
85.5%
Jeremiah Cobb run for no gain to the AUB 36Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+13
86.0%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 13 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
85.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Shane HooksSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
85.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Shane Hooks, broken up by Paris ShandSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OWN 49
-2
85.6%
Payton Thorne sacked by Mekhi Wingo for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 47 Auburn Penalty, Offensive Holding (Izavion Miller) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
86.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 47 yds, downed at the LSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
85.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:1914% → 17%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
86.1%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the AUB 26 Auburn Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brandon Frazier) to the AUB 16Similar
Q3 14:31
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+9
86.3%
Robby Ashford run for 9 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+39
86.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 39 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
85.2%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 13 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
84.2%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 5 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
84.4%
Robby Ashford pass incomplete to Brandon FrazierSimilar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 18
-7
85.3%
Robby Ashford sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+5
87.1%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jordan Jefferson) to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
83.2%
Alex McPherson 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:1985% → 94%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
85.4%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+6
85.4%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-5
85.1%
Daniels, Jayden pass complete to Nabers, Malik for 5 yards to the AUBURN26, PENALTY LSU illegal motion (Nabers, Malik) 5 yards to the AUBURN36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+8
85.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 8 yds to the AUB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
86.0%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the AUB 24Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-1
86.0%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Jalen McLeod and Marcus Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 25Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+25
94.1%
Kyren Lacy 25 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:578% → 7%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 25Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 26Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
93.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 4 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
93.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:5094% → 98%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+57
94.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 57 yds to the AUB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
94.8%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the AUB 9Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
94.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the AUB 3 LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (Logan Diggs) to the AUB 13Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
98.0%
Josh Williams 13 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:442% → 9%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
97.7%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the AUB 20Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+28
97.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 13 yds to the AUB 33 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Sage Ryan) to the AUB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.6%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the AUB 48Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+32
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 32 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
97.8%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
97.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 4 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
98.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Rivaldo FairweatherSimilar
Q3 0:29
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+8
98.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 8 yds to the LSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
98.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the LSU 3Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.1%
Brandon Frazier 3 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Robby Ashford Pass to Brandon Frazier for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5795% → 99%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.7%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+23
95.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 23 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
95.5%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+7
95.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 7 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
96.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 6 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-8
96.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the AUB 27 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Lance Heard) to the AUB 37Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+22
96.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 22 yds to the AUB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.3%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the AUB 15Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+9
96.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 9 yds to the AUB 6Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+1
96.6%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the AUB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.3%
Logan Diggs 5 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.9%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Fair, Jay (Ryan, Sage), PENALTY LSU roughing passer (Shand, Paris) 15 yards to the AUBURN40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
98.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 39Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+6
99.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 6 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
99.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Rivaldo Fairweather, broken up by Jordan JeffersonSimilar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+3
99.2%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the AUB 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 4:3599% → 100%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
99.4%
John Emery Jr. run for 11 yds to the AUB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
99.5%
John Emery Jr. run for 17 yds to the AUB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
99.5%
Josh Williams run for 5 yds to the AUB 15Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
99.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the AUB 11Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+1
99.5%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the AUB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
99.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 9 yds to the AUB 1Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Josh Williams 1 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
99.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 11 yds to the AUB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 3 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+8
99.9%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 5
50
+11
99.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 11 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.9%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 6 yds to the LSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:00
Kyren Lacy 25 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)
+8
TD · Q4 14:56
Brandon Frazier 3 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Robby Ashford Pass to Brandon Frazier for Two-Point Conversion)
-7
TD · Q2 14:22
Jarquez Hunter 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com