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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreAUB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:20 · Jeremiah Cobb run for 6 yds to the LSU 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:15: John Emery Jr. 2 Yd Run (Damian Ramos Kick) — LSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:22: Jarquez Hunter 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick) — AUB win probability +5.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
- FG · Q2 10:21: Damian Ramos 35 Yd Field Goal — LSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:00: Kyren Lacy 25 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick) — LSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:56: Brandon Frazier 3 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Robby Ashford Pass to Brandon Frazier for Two-Point Conversion) — AUB win probability +7.0 pts (now 9%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AUB made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 12:06AUB 4th & 20 at AUB 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snapGo for it21.8%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.0%average punt
- Q1 6:39LSU 4th & 9 at AUB 12, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snapGo for it78.0%−0.227% to convertField goalTheir call78.2%86% to makePunt77.1%−1.1average punt
- Q1 5:20AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snapGo for it21.6%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.8%average punt
- Q2 10:21LSU 4th & 6 at AUB 18, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snapGo for it78.7%−0.338% to convertField goalTheir call79.0%79% to makePunt74.7%−4.2average punt
- Q2 8:23AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 42, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snapGo for it16.9%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%average punt
- Q2 6:22LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 36, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snapGo for it83.4%−0.937% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.3%average punt
- Q2 4:16AUB 4th & 17 at AUB 13, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snapGo for it14.1%−1.613% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.7%average punt
- Q2 0:09AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 47, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snapGo for it14.5%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.8%average punt
- Q3 11:35AUB 4th & 7 at LSU 20, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snapGo for it13.8%−0.435% to convertField goalTheir call14.2%75% to makePunt10.7%−3.5average punt
- Q3 5:57AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 30, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q3 0:29AUB 4th & 4 at LSU 14, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%46% to convertField goal1.7%−<0.184% to makePunt0.4%−1.3average punt
- Q4 7:09AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 45, down 23Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 13:21LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.9%97% to makeGo for two77.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:15LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.1%97% to makeGo for two81.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:22AUB Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.1%97% to makeGo for two21.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:00LSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.4%97% to makeGo for two90.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:53LSU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:56AUB Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick4.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call4.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:51LSU Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:28LSU Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLSUDrive 1TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3381% → 81%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 9 yds to the LSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT7 plays · -10 yds · 1:1519% → 19%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
80.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 7 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-12
80.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 12 yards to the AUB 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AUB Jarquez HunterSimilar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
80.7%
Oscar Chapman punt for 53 yds , Gregory Clayton Jr. returns for no gain to the LSU 15 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3FG13 plays · 66 yds · 5:2281% → 81%
AUBDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0619% → 19%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
81.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 20Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+4
81.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 4 yds to the AUB 24Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
81.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Koy Moore, broken up by Andre' SamSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
81.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:5681% → 86%
Q1 4:13
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+49
80.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 49 yds to the AUB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD11 plays · 75 yds · 2:4315% → 20%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
84.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 15 yds to the AUB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
84.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 12 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+10
84.4%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Hooks, Shane, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Alexander, Zy) 10 yards to the LSU35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+10
85.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 10 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FG11 plays · 57 yds · 3:5380% → 85%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
80.4%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Eugene Asante for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+11
80.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 11 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+22
80.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 22 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
81.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 13 yds to the AUB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
81.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik Nabers, broken up by Donovan KaufmanSimilar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+9
81.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 9 yds to the AUB 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 1:4915% → 15%
Q2 8:38
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
84.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Rivaldo Fairweather, broken up by Zy AlexanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5686% → 84%
Q2 6:36
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
86.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik Nabers, broken up by Nehemiah PritchettSimilar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
84.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren Lacy, broken up by Kayin LeeSimilar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
83.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Koy Moore at the AUB 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT6 plays · -7 yds · 1:5915% → 14%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
85.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Nick Mardner, broken up by Zy AlexanderSimilar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 16
OWN 14
-7
85.6%
Thorne, Payton rush for 17 yards to the AUBURN31, PENALTY AUBURN holding (Wade, Dillon) 7 yards to the AUBURN7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
85.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11INT4 plays · 16 yds · 1:1886% → 86%
Q2 3:50
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+4
85.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 4 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
85.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 5 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-3
86.1%
Jayden Daniels pass intercepted D.J. James return for 3 yds to the AUB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12PUNT9 plays · 28 yds · 2:3614% → 14%
LSUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14FG10 plays · 55 yds · 3:1914% → 17%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
86.1%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the AUB 26 Auburn Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brandon Frazier) to the AUB 16Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+39
86.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 39 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 18
-7
85.3%
Robby Ashford sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15TD8 plays · 39 yds · 3:1985% → 94%
Q3 10:14
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-5
85.1%
Daniels, Jayden pass complete to Nabers, Malik for 5 yards to the AUBURN26, PENALTY LSU illegal motion (Nabers, Malik) 5 yards to the AUBURN36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+8
85.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 8 yds to the AUB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-1
86.0%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Jalen McLeod and Marcus Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:578% → 7%
LSUDrive 17TD4 plays · 67 yds · 1:5094% → 98%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+57
94.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 57 yds to the AUB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
94.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the AUB 3 LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (Logan Diggs) to the AUB 13Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
98.0%
Josh Williams 13 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD11 plays · 84 yds · 3:442% → 9%
Q3 3:11
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+28
97.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 13 yds to the AUB 33 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Sage Ryan) to the AUB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+32
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 32 yds to the LSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
97.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 4 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 0:29
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+8
98.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 8 yds to the LSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.1%
Brandon Frazier 3 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Robby Ashford Pass to Brandon Frazier for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19TD13 plays · 75 yds · 5:5795% → 99%
Q4 13:02
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+7
95.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 7 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
96.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 6 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-8
96.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the AUB 27 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Lance Heard) to the AUB 37Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+22
96.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 22 yds to the AUB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20DOWNS6 plays · 23 yds · 1:181% → 1%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.9%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Fair, Jay (Ryan, Sage), PENALTY LSU roughing passer (Shand, Paris) 15 yards to the AUBURN40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
98.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 39Similar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
99.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Rivaldo Fairweather, broken up by Jordan JeffersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21TD7 plays · 48 yds · 4:3599% → 100%
Q4 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
99.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 9 yds to the AUB 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22END OF GAME8 plays · 44 yds · 1:520% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:00
Kyren Lacy 25 Yd pass from Jayden Daniels (Damian Ramos Kick)
+8
TD · Q4 14:56
Brandon Frazier 3 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Robby Ashford Pass to Brandon Frazier for Two-Point Conversion)
-7
TD · Q2 14:22
Jarquez Hunter 2 Yd Run (Alex McPherson Kick)
-5.4