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ARK

Arkansas 21 at Alabama 24

ALA
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:58: Kobe Prentice 79 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +2.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:52: Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +2.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:41: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 29 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +3.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:33: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 5 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +9.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:59: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 14 yds for a TD (KJ Jefferson pass to Andrew Armstrong for Two-Point Conversion) — ARK win probability +17.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 13:39ARK 4th & 5 at ARK 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:37ALA 4th & 5 at ALA 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:15ARK 4th & 7 at ALA 37, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.3%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    12.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:20ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:05ARK 4th & 3 at ALA 31, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.6%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:08ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 34, down 1
    Close callPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:42ARK 4th & 17 at ARK 16, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:47ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 34, down 15
    Close callPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:50ALA 4th & 22 at ALA 39, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:31ALA 4th & 9 at ARK 43, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    91.4%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:02ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 19, down 15
    Close callPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:47ALA 4th & 3 at ARK 12, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%−0.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−4.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:51ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 11, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:55ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 32, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:58ALA 4th & 19 at ALA 16, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−2.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:13ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−4.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:19ARK 4th & 19 at ARK 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−4.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 0:58ALA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:52ALA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:41ALA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:33ARK Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:59ARK Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    20.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0210% → 11%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 4 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
89.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the ARK 30Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
89.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
89.5%
Max Fletcher punt for 59 yds, downed at the ALA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5389% → 89%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
89.4%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the ALA 13Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
89.2%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the ALA 13Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+3
89.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+4
88.7%
James Burnip punt for 52 yds , Isaiah Sategna returns for 4 yds to the ARK 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:5711% → 12%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
88.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the ARK 36Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
88.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Rashod DubinionSimilar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+24
88.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 24 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
88.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the ALA 37Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
88.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:53
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
88.1%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the ALA 37Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+55
87.9%
Cam Little 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4788% → 87%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.7%
Alabama Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the ALA 20Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+18
87.4%
Jase McClellan run for 18 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
87.5%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-6
87.4%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Landon Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 37Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+7
86.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 7 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
86.7%
James Burnip punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 4:0513% → 17%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
86.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 14 yds to the ARK 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
86.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the ARK 38Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
86.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 41Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+21
85.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 21 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-7
85.2%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Trezmen Marshall for a loss of 7 yards to the ALA 45Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 17
OPP 45
+8
85.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 8 yds to the ALA 37Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+6
84.5%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+49
83.3%
Cam Little 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5784% → 85%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.7%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the ALA 25Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
83.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 21 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ALA Jalen MilroeSimilar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+79
85.4%
Kobe Prentice 79 Yd pass from Jalen Milroe (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3014% → 15%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
85.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
85.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
85.4%
Max Fletcher punt for 49 yds, downed at the ALA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 5:0285% → 88%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
85.1%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the ALA 19Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+44
84.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 44 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
85.7%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the ARK 36Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-7
85.5%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Jashaud Stewart and Hudson Clark for a loss of 7 yards to the ARK 43Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 16
OPP 43
+25
84.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 25 yds to the ARK 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
85.4%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the ARK 13Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
85.3%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the ARK 10Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+4
84.7%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ARK 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
85.0%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the ARK 1Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5613% → 12%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
87.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the ARK 24Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+3
87.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-11
87.8%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Jah-Marien Latham for a loss of 11 yards to the ARK 16Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 17
OWN 16
0
88.3%
Max Fletcher punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the ALA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:5387% → 92%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jalen HaleSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
87.2%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+14
87.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 14 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
88.1%
Jam Miller run for 16 yds to the ARK 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
91.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 29 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:489% → 9%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jaedon WilsonSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
90.9%
Dominique Johnson run for no gain to the ARK 25Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
91.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 9 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
91.5%
Max Fletcher punt for 50 yds, downed at the ALA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 1:4493% → 92%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
92.5%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the ALA 17Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+10
92.8%
Justice Haynes run for 10 yds to the ALA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
92.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 8 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+16
92.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 16 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
93.2%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Landon Jackson and Jaheim Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 45Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 16
OWN 45
0
92.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 16
OWN 45
-6
92.1%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Landon Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 39Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 22
OWN 39
0
92.2%
James Burnip punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:279% → 8%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
91.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the ARK 11Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+5
91.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the ARK 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:1192% → 92%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for 4 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
92.1%
Jase McClellan run for 12 yds to the ALA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
92.4%
Jase McClellan run for 15 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
92.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
92.6%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the ARK 43Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
92.3%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
91.8%
James Burnip punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARK 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:179% → 8%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
91.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the ARK 17Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 17
0
91.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+2
91.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the ARK 19Similar
Q3 11:02
4TH & 2
OWN 19
0
91.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 70 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16FG
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:5193% → 96%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
92.6%
Roydell Williams run for 16 yds to the ALA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
92.7%
Jam Miller run for 19 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+35
93.1%
Roydell Williams run for 35 yds to the ARK 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
93.7%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the ARK 15Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
93.7%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the ARK 12Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 3
OPP 12
0
93.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:47
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+30
95.7%
Will Reichard 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:405% → 5%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-9
95.0%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Terrion Arnold for a loss of 9 yards to the ARK 6Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 19
OWN 6
+10
95.2%
AJ Green run for 10 yds to the ARK 16Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-5
95.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 11Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
95.4%
Max Fletcher punt for 60 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5196% → 96%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
96.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
96.1%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
96.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jalen HaleSimilar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
95.9%
James Burnip punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:225% → 14%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
95.5%
Arkansas Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the ARK 18Similar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+7
95.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 7 yds to the ARK 25Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
95.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+17
95.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the ARK 27 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the ARK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
95.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the ARK 44Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+9
95.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 9 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.4%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+22
95.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 22 yds to the ALA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
94.8%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the ALA 23Similar
Q3 1:17
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
94.9%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the ALA 20Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+15
95.7%
Alabama Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Caleb Downs) to the ALA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 5 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2191% → 90%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.3%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the ALA 25Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
91.2%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Landon Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the ALA 16Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
90.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+1
90.2%
James Burnip punt for 54 yds , Isaiah Sategna returns for 1 yd to the ARK 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:4211% → 30%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
89.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 29Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+23
90.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 23 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
87.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 6 yds to the ALA 42Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+4
87.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
87.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaaSimilar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+25
88.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 25 yds to the ALA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
87.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 14Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
87.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+14
70.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 14 yds for a TD (KJ Jefferson pass to Andrew Armstrong for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:3478% → 74%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.6%
Jase McClellan run for no gain to the ALA 25Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
75.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Malik BensonSimilar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+67
73.9%
James Burnip punt for 59 yds, return by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 16 Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the ARK 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 4:2626% → 26%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
73.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the ARK 8Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
73.8%
Dominique Johnson run for 4 yds to the ARK 12Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+19
74.4%
AJ Green run for 19 yds to the ARK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
70.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 9 yds to the ARK 40Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+4
67.3%
AJ Green run for 4 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
65.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
68.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-11
69.3%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Dallas Turner and Justin Eboigbe for a loss of 11 yards to the ARK 35Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 19
OWN 35
+11
74.2%
Max Fletcher punt for 41 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for 11 yds to the ALA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24END OF GAME
16 plays · 26 yds · 4:3577% → 95%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
76.8%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the ALA 37Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
80.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 5 yds to the ALA 42Similar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
85.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
87.9%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Ja'Corey Brooks) to the ALA 41Similar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+2
87.6%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+14
87.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 14 yds to the ARK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
90.5%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the ARK 41Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+6
91.4%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the ARK 35Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
92.2%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the ARK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
94.2%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Jase McClellan) to the ARK 35Similar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 15
OPP 35
-2
94.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 37Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 17
OPP 37
-2
95.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:59
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 14 yds for a TD (KJ Jefferson pass to Andrew Armstrong for Two-Point Conversion)
-17.6
TD · Q3 0:33
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 5 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)
-9.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com