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SHSU

Sam Houston 13 at New Mexico State 27

NMSU
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2023 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreSHSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:29 · Jadon Cardell punt for 51 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for no gain to the NMSU 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorPregame priorBlowout margin
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Home team on offense+30.3Score differential+26.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Garbage-time factor+7.2Pregame prior+4.1Blowout margin+13.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:42: Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 78 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:39: Ethan Albertson 22 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:47: Diego Pavia pass incomplete — NMSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:55: Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SHSU win probability +5.6 pts (now 7%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:01: Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK) — SHSU win probability +8.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9SHSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 11:25SHSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    38.1%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:34SHSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:39NMSU 4th & 5 at SHSU 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−6.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:47SHSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.4%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:18NMSU 4th & 17 at SHSU 21, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−2.6
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    76.6%−6.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:09SHSU 4th & 12 at SHSU 36, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:33NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 39, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:48SHSU 4th & 9 at SHSU 17, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:57NMSU 4th & 3 at SHSU 49, up 27
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:29SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 9, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:29NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 33, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:57NMSU 4th & 2 at SHSU 47, up 21
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:17SHSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−2.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:45NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 26, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:17NMSU 4th & 5 at SHSU 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:17SHSU 4th & 5 at SHSU 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:16SHSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 32, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:51NMSU 4th & 16 at NMSU 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:24SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SHSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 4:46NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:42NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:27NMSU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:55SHSU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:01SHSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SHSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 3:3539% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
61.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 16 yds to the SHSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
61.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 8 yds to the SHSU 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+7
61.1%
Noah Smith run for 7 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
61.1%
Tobias Weaver run for 2 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+4
61.1%
Tobias Weaver run for 4 yds to the NMSU 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-2
61.1%
Tobias Weaver run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 40Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
60.9%
Jadon Cardell punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 6:3961% → 65%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
61.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 6 yds to the NMSU 19Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+10
61.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 10 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
61.1%
Monte Watkins run for no gain to the NMSU 29Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
61.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 15 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
61.4%
QB Keeper PAVIA, Diego rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the SHS49, out of bounds. PENALTY NMS Holding on TIAVAASUE, Ron enforced 10 yards from the NMS44 to the NMS34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+16
61.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 16 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 4
50
+3
61.4%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the SHSU 47Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+1
61.3%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
61.4%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+17
61.4%
Diego Pavia run for 17 yds to the SHSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
61.5%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the SHSU 22Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
65.4%
Diego Pavia run for 22 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:1236% → 36%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
64.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 20 yds to the SHSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
63.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 43Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+6
64.3%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 6 yds to the SHSU 49Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+4
63.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 4 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
63.7%
Jadon Cardell punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:5269% → 75%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
68.5%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 22Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+78
74.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 78 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 5END OF HALF
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5630% → 29%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
69.6%
Sam Houston Penalty, Offensive Holding (Malik Phillips) to the SHSU 21Similar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 14
OWN 21
+8
69.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 8 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
69.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 28Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
70.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:46
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+15
71.0%
CARDELL, Jadon punt 39 yards to the NMS33, BRADY, Jonathan return of 11 yards to the NMS44 nullified, End of Play, clock 14:46. PENALTY NMS Unnecessary Roughness on ROWSER, Myles enforced 15 yards after the change of possession from the NMS44 to the NMS29, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 4:0776% → 85%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
76.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 5 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+41
76.3%
Diego Pavia run for 41 yds to the SHSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
76.8%
Eli Stowers run for 10 yds to the SHSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
76.7%
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the SHSU 7Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+3
76.3%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the SHSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
76.3%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 5Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
84.8%
Ethan Albertson 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:5221% → 20%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
79.1%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 7 yds to the SHSU 32Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
78.6%
Jordan Yates run for 1 yd to the SHSU 33Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
79.1%
SHOEMAKER, Keegan pass to the left complete for 14 yards to YATES, Jordan caught at the SHS47 and advanced to the SHS47 (ELLIOTT, Keyshaun;GANS, Tim). PENALTY NMS Holding on MARTINEZ, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the SHS33 to the SHS43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
78.7%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 45Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
79.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Adrian Murdaugh for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 3
50
+1
79.5%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 1 yd to the NMSU 49Similar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+1
79.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 1 yd to the NMSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:2989% → 92%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
88.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
88.7%
Diego Pavia run for 13 yds to the SHSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
88.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 25 yds to the SHSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
89.3%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the SHSU 9Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
89.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 5
OPP 9
-12
88.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the SHSU 6 New Mexico State Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Personal Foul on CANEPA, Louie enforced (-15 Yards) to the SHSU 21Similar
Q2 4:18
4TH & 17
OPP 21
+39
92.0%
Ethan Albertson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0911% → 9%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
89.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 13 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
89.1%
Tobias Weaver run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 37Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-10
89.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for a loss of 10 yards to the SHSU 27Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 21
OWN 27
+9
91.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 9 yds to the SHSU 36Similar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
91.0%
Jadon Cardell punt for 51 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for no gain New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NMSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 1:4294% → 98%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
94.2%
Monte Watkins run for 16 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
94.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Monte Watkins for 5 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
93.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+8
93.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 8 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+32
94.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 32 yds to the SHSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+18
94.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 18 yds to the SHSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
93.9%
PAVIA, Diego pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the SHS0. PENALTY SHS Pass Interference on HOBBS, Dakerric enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the SHS2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
93.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
93.6%
PAVIA, Diego pass short to the right incomplete intended for THOMAS, Star thrown to the SHS0. PENALTY NMS Holding on THOMAS, Star enforced 10 yards from the SHS2 to the SHS12. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
94.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
97.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 12 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:272% → 2%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
98.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 13 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
98.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 13 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
98.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 4:2798% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.6%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
97.6%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the NMSU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
97.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 10 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
97.7%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
97.7%
Diego Pavia sacked by Trevor Williams and Issiah Nixon for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+3
97.7%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the NMSU 39Similar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
98.5%
Zach Haynes punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:251% → 1%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
98.7%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 17Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
98.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
98.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
98.8%
Jadon Cardell punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5199% → 99%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.5%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the NMSU 44Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
98.5%
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the SHSU 48Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-1
98.5%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 49Similar
Q3 7:57
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
98.8%
Zach Haynes punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:281% → 1%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
99.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
98.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:57
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
99.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
99.0%
Jadon Cardell punt for 51 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for no gain to the NMSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0099% → 99%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
99.0%
Monte Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 33Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
98.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
98.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
99.2%
punt blocked by Jadarius Brown blocked by Jadarius BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:341% → 7%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
99.0%
Tobias Weaver run for 2 yds to the NMSU 16Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
93.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 16 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:5897% → 98%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 5 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
97.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 15 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
97.5%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 5
50
+3
97.5%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the SHSU 47Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
97.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
98.3%
Zach Haynes punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 19MISSED FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:403% → 2%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
96.6%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 8 yds to the SHSU 20Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+3
96.4%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 3 yds to the SHSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+33
96.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 33 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
97.6%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 16 yds to the NMSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
97.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
97.4%
Adrian Murdaugh run for no gain to the NMSU 28Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
97.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
98.1%
Colby Sessums 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:1599% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
99.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
99.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 26
0
99.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
99.1%
Zach Haynes punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:442% → 10%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+30
98.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 30 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
98.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 9 yds to the NMSU 31Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 1
OPP 31
0
97.7%
Adrian Murdaugh run for no gain to the NMSU 31Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
97.9%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+23
98.0%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 23 yds to the NMSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:3898% → 98%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
97.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 6 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
97.8%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
98.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
50
+5
98.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 5 yds to the SHSU 45Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
98.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
97.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
98.4%
Zach Haynes punt for 36 yds, downed at the SHSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 23DOWNS
14 plays · 59 yds · 5:017% → 4%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
93.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 6 yds to the SHSU 15Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+10
93.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 10 yds to the SHSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
93.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 16 yds to the SHSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
93.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
93.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Adrian Murdaugh for 5 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
93.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+8
93.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 8 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
92.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 7 yds to the NMSU 39Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+5
92.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 5 yds to the NMSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
92.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 7 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-5
92.5%
Sam Houston Penalty, False Start (Graceson Jackson-Smith) to the NMSU 32Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
92.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
91.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for no gain to the NMSU 27Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 8
OPP 32
0
95.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · -6 yds · 0:2099% → 99%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
99.2%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+6
99.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 6 yds to the NMSU 40Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-5
99.2%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (Louie Canepa) to the NMSU 35Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-9
99.3%
Diego Pavia sacked by Chris Murray for a loss of 9 yards to the NMSU 26Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 16
OWN 26
0
99.2%
Zach Haynes punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:272% → 2%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
97.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 9 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+12
97.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 12 yds to the SHSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
97.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
97.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+3
97.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 3 yds to the SHSU 48Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
98.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 2:24100% → 100%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
99.5%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the SHSU 44Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
99.5%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the SHSU 42Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+1
99.5%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the SHSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:47
Diego Pavia pass incomplete
+9
FG · Q2 10:39
Ethan Albertson 22 yd FG GOOD
+8.8
TD · Q4 12:01
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 6 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)
-8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com