2023 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2023 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:27 · Daton Montiel punt for 50 yds, downed at the UTEP 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:28: Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 23 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK) — UTEP win probability +8.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:10: Kejon Owens run for 11 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK) — FIU win probability +6.0 pts (now 42%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:03: Buzz Flabiano 37 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +5.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- SACK · Q2 0:59: Keyone Jenkins sacked by Maurice Westmoreland for a loss of 12 yards to the FIU 25 — FIU win probability +16.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:28: Keyone Jenkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK) — FIU win probability +7.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UTEP made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 6:54FIU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 7Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snapGo for it53.9%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:16FIU 4th & 2 at UTEP 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call50.3%57% to convertField goal49.6%−0.766% to makePunt46.0%−4.3average punt
- Q1 1:27FIU 4th & 16 at FIU 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snapGo for it37.7%−1.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.9%average punt
- Q2 12:50UTEP 4th & 11 at FIU 37, up 21Close callPunted · 68.7% before the snapGo for it68.8%−0.127% to convertField goal68.9%40% to makePuntTheir call68.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:33FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 22, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it31.4%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.3%average punt
- Q2 10:08UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 29, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snapGo for it71.9%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.2%average punt
- Q2 1:03UTEP 4th & 14 at FIU 21, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snapGo for it67.4%−2.617% to convertField goalTheir call70.0%74% to makePunt63.2%−6.8average punt
- Q3 8:09FIU 4th & 7 at UTEP 49, down 10Close callWent for it · 32.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.9%−0.437% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt33.3%average punt
- Q3 6:27UTEP 4th & 12 at UTEP 44, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snapGo for it66.0%−3.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.0%average punt
- Q3 4:16FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 36, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snapGo for it26.5%−1.037% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.5%average punt
- Q4 14:14UTEP 4th & 1 at FIU 16, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snapGo for it73.8%71% to convertField goalTheir call71.1%−2.681% to makePunt62.7%−11.1average punt
- Q4 12:19FIU 4th & 11 at FIU 19, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it19.0%−1.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.4%average punt
- Q4 11:27UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 40, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snapGo for it76.0%−1.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.7%average punt
- Q4 5:24UTEP 4th & 3 at FIU 3, up 10Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snapGo for it87.6%44% to convertField goalTheir call86.5%−1.193% to makePunt80.2%−7.4average punt
- Q4 3:30UTEP 4th & 7 at FIU 25, up 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.5%−0.236% to convertField goalTheir call95.8%66% to makePunt92.2%−3.6average punt
- Q4 3:30FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 31, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.5%−0.7average punt
- Q4 1:13FIU 4th & 6 at UTEP 35, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.8%40% to convertField goal4.3%−0.545% to makePunt3.0%−1.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTEP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:00UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.8%97% to makeGo for two44.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:44UTEP Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call48.0%97% to makeGo for two48.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:28UTEP Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.2%97% to makeGo for two57.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:10FIU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.8%97% to makeGo for two36.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 10:28FIU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.8%97% to makeGo for two33.7%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTEPDrive 1TD11 plays · 75 yds · 6:0041% → 44%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
59.4%
Florida International Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+9
59.3%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 9 yds to the FIU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
59.3%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 13 yds to the FIU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 28 yds · 2:0257% → 56%
Q1 8:56
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+17
57.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 17 yds to the FIU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
52.6%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 80 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4DOWNS6 plays · 46 yds · 2:2254% → 53%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
54.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Rocky Beers for 16 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5TD3 plays · 72 yds · 0:4850% → 58%
FIUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5544% → 41%
Q1 3:22
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-8
43.9%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Kanious Vaughn for a loss of 8 yards to the FIU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT10 plays · 38 yds · 3:3762% → 58%
Q1 1:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-4
38.1%
Cade McConnell sacked by Jamal Potts and Jack Daly for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 24Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+40
36.7%
Kevin Hurley pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 40 yds to the FIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 5
OPP 31
-1
41.0%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for a loss of 1 yard to the FIU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1742% → 41%
UTEPDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2562% → 64%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10TD10 plays · 94 yds · 3:5837% → 42%
UTEPDrive 11FG15 plays · 54 yds · 5:0764% → 77%
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
35.9%
PENALTY FIU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on O'NEAL, Travonte UTP Unsportsmanlike Conduct on NKELE, Aluma , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
35.9%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 14 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
34.6%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 29 yds to the FIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-3
27.1%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the FIU 21 fumbled, recovered by UTEP Torrance Burgess Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -8 yds · 0:5940% → 38%
FIUDrive 13TD8 plays · 84 yds · 4:2828% → 40%
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 16
-5
27.9%
Shomari Lawrence run for a loss of 5 yards to the FIU 11 Shomari Lawrence fumbled, recovered by FIU Shomari LawrenceSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 15
OWN 11
+38
27.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 38 yds to the FIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+29
30.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 29 yds to the UTEP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+19
31.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 19 yds to the UTEP 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14DOWNS5 plays · 6 yds · 2:1738% → 34%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
37.6%
OWENS, Kejon rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the FIU49 (KNIGHT, Tyrice), out of bounds. PENALTY FIU Illegal Formation declined FIU Holding on JACKSON, Naeer enforced 10 yards from the FIU48 to the FIU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 13
OWN 45
-3
36.3%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Maurice Westmoreland and Torey Richardson for a loss of 3 yards to the FIU 42Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+9
34.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Shomari Lawrence for 9 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4267% → 67%
Q3 7:34
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-3
32.2%
Cade McConnell sacked by Reggie Peterson for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1131% → 28%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-7
31.2%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Praise Amaewhule for a loss of 7 yards to the FIU 26Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+10
30.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kejon Owens for 10 yds to the FIU 36Similar
Q3 4:16
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
27.6%
Daton Montiel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the UTEP 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17MISSED FG9 plays · 43 yds · 5:0273% → 74%
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
26.8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 14 yds to the FIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+6
25.9%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 6 yds to the FIU 42Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+17
26.0%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 17 yds to the FIU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
23.4%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 7 yds to the FIU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:5525% → 20%
Q4 14:14
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-10
24.3%
LAWRENCE, Shomari rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the FIU36 (KNIGHT, Tyrice), out of bounds. PENALTY FIU Holding on BEERS, Rocky enforced 10 yards from the FIU29 to the FIU19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
20.1%
Daton Montiel punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the UTEP 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5280% → 77%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20INT2 plays · 13 yds · 0:3521% → 22%
UTEPDrive 21FG13 plays · 72 yds · 5:2880% → 95%
FIUDrive 22FUMBLE5 plays · 3 yds · 0:507% → 8%
Q4 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
6.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 14 yds to the FIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23MISSED FG7 plays · 3 yds · 1:0096% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 24DOWNS8 plays · 40 yds · 2:173% → 2%
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
2.8%
Haden Carlson sacked by Maurice Westmoreland for a loss of 6 yards to the FIU 19Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+12
2.9%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Eric Rivers for 12 yds to the FIU 31Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+30
2.8%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 30 yds Kris Mitchell fumbled, recovered by FIU for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
3.4%
Haden Carlson run for a loss of 10 yards to the UTEP 49 Haden Carlson fumbled, recovered by FIU Haden CarlsonSimilar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 20
OPP 49
+14
3.1%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Eric Rivers for 14 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
SACK · Q2 0:59
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Maurice Westmoreland for a loss of 12 yards to the FIU 25
+16.6
TD · Q1 3:28
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 23 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q3 10:28
Keyone Jenkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK)
+7.3