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Louisiana Tech 23 at Middle Tennessee 31

MTSU
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 10, 2023 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:59 · Blake Ochsendorf punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense+20.5Garbage-time factor+5.3Score differential+8.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6Pregame prior+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:38: Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:13: Jaiden Credle run for 9 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:39: Dakota Williams run for 6 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +9.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:47: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 60 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +8.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:30: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Charvis Thornton for 10 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +7.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:37MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:07MTSU 4th & 4 at LT 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.8%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:25LT 4th & 2 at LT 30, down 4
    Close callPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:28MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:43LT 4th & 6 at MTSU 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:27MTSU 4th & 14 at MTSU 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:56LT 4th & 5 at LT 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:39LT 4th & 1 at MTSU 6, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%−2.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−9.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:59LT 4th & 16 at LT 40, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:19MTSU 4th & 13 at MTSU 35, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:30LT 4th & 10 at MTSU 10, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:07MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 22, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:58LT 4th & 4 at MTSU 46, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−2.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 4:13LT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:26MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:38MTSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:13MTSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:39LT Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:47MTSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:30LT Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%−1.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2255% → 55%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 5 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
55.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
55.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 9 yds to the MTSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
55.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
55.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 3 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
55.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
55.3%
Miles Tillman punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2Uncategorized
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2345% → 44%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
55.4%
Tyre Shelton run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 8Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
55.5%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 12
OWN 8
-1
55.6%
Tyre Shelton run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 7Similar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 13
OWN 7
+15
55.8%
(11:06) OCHSENDORF, Blake punt 50 yards to the MTS43, DOBSON, Zack return of 17 yards to the LAT40 nullified (SINGLETON, Cecil), clock 10:55. PENALTY MTS Unnecessary Roughness on WILSON, Simon enforced 15 yards after the change of possession from the LAT42 to the MTS43, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:4256% → 57%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
55.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 3
50
-5
56.1%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 45Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+24
56.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 24 yds to the LT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
56.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
56.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 5 yds to the LT 26Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+11
56.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 11 yds to the LT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
56.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 18Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+6
56.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 6 yds to the LT 12Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+3
56.4%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 3 yds to the LT 9Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
56.9%
Zeke Rankin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:4643% → 47%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
56.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 9 yds to the LT 37Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+4
56.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
56.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 10 yds to the MTSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
56.1%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 23 yds to the MTSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
55.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 7 yds to the MTSU 19Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+19
53.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 19 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4554% → 60%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 9 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
55.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
54.1%
DJ Riles run for 2 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
54.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ Riles for 11 yds to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
55.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 2 yds to the MTSU 49Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+10
55.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 10 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
55.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Terry Wilkins for 3 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+6
55.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 6 yds to the LT 32Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+4
55.1%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the LT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
55.8%
Terry Wilkins run for 1 yd to the LT 27Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+27
59.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 27 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5242% → 42%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
57.8%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+1
58.0%
Smoke Harris run for 1 yd to the LT 23Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+7
58.5%
Jack Turner run for 7 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q2 14:25
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
58.5%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4958% → 57%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
58.2%
Jaiden Credle run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 23Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+8
58.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 8 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+2
58.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 1
OWN 33
-5
57.7%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 28Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
57.1%
Trey Turk punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 5:3642% → 43%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
57.7%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
58.0%
Jack Turner run for 7 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+21
56.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tyre Shelton for 21 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
56.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 9 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+4
55.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the MTSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
55.3%
Charvis Thornton run for 10 yds to the MTSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
55.0%
Charvis Thornton run for 3 yds to the MTSU 12Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-4
55.0%
(08:51) TURNER, Jack pass to the left complete for -4 yards to HARRIS, Smoke caught at the MTS17 and advanced to the MTS16 (THOMAS, Jakobe;RABY, Tyrell), clock 08:43. PENALTY MTS Roughing the Kicker on KINLEY, Richard enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the MTS12 to the MTS6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
55.0%
Jack Turner pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 2 yds to the MTSU 4Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
55.5%
(07:44) TURNER, Jack pass short to the left incomplete intended for MAXWELL, Kyle broken up by RABY, Tyrell at the MTS0, clock 07:40. PENALTY MTS Pass Interference on RABY, Tyrell enforced 2 yards to the MTS2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
55.5%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 7Similar
Q2 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
55.5%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the MTSU 6Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
55.5%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
56.5%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
56.7%
Jacob Barnes 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:1559% → 58%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.3%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the MTSU 26Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
59.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 10 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
60.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
59.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the MTSU 40Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-8
59.7%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Deshon Hall Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the MTSU 32Similar
Q2 4:27
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
57.7%
Miles Tillman punt for 57 yds, downed at the LT 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:1741% → 39%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
58.7%
Jack Turner pass complete to Julien Lewis for 6 yds to the LT 17Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+4
59.1%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the LT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
58.9%
Tyre Shelton run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 20Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
59.1%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+6
60.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 6 yds to the LT 26Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
60.6%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 31 yds · 1:0564% → 74%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
63.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the LT 30Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 9
OPP 30
-1
63.8%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Deshon Hall Jr. and Zion Nason for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 31Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+20
62.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 20 yds Holden Willis fumbled, recovered by MTSU for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
64.3%
Terry Wilkins run for 6 yds to the LT 5Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+3
64.4%
VATTIATO, Nicholas pass short to the left incomplete intended for OLSON, Justin broken up by ROBERTS, Willie at the LAT0, clock 00:46. PENALTY LAT Pass Interference on ROBERTS, Willie enforced 3 yards to the LAT2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:1128% → 27%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.2%
Jack Turner pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 3 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
71.9%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
72.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the LT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13INT
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:1029% → 31%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
71.1%
Tyre Shelton run for 15 yds to the LT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
70.0%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
70.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 15 yds to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+38
68.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 38 yds to the MTSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
67.2%
Tyre Shelton run for 5 yds to the MTSU 2Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
67.3%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (Carson Bruno) to the MTSU 7Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
67.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tyre Shelton for 2 yds to the MTSU 5Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
69.3%
Jack Turner pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:2574% → 88%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
73.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 12 yds to the MTSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
74.3%
Jaiden Credle run for 12 yds to the MTSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
76.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 47Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+6
76.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 6 yds to the LT 47Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
76.1%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the LT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
77.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-3
77.1%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Rason Williams II for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 48Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+15
75.5%
(08:43) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILLIS, Holden thrown to the LAT31, clock 08:39. PENALTY LAT Pass Interference on WOODS, Cedric enforced 15 yards to the LAT33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
78.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 5 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+2
78.2%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the LT 26Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+17
77.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 17 yds to the LT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
88.0%
Jaiden Credle run for 9 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3315% → 21%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
84.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyre Shelton for 13 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
84.7%
Charvis Thornton run for no gain to the LT 38Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
85.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+10
86.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 10 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
85.2%
Charvis Thornton run for 1 yd to the LT 49Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+15
85.9%
(04:29) BACHMEIER, Hank pass up the middle incomplete intended for FIELDS, Jacob thrown to the LAT45, clock 04:25. PENALTY MTS Personal Foul on RABY, Tyrell enforced 15 yards from the LAT49 to the MTS36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
85.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+21
85.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 21 yds to the MTSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
84.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Jacob Fields for 3 yds to the MTSU 12Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+4
84.8%
Jacob Fields run for 4 yds to the MTSU 8Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
87.9%
Jacob Fields run for 2 yds to the MTSU 6Similar
Q3 1:39
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
78.6%
Dakota Williams run for 6 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5283% → 93%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.9%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
83.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q3 0:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
83.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
84.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 3 yds to the MTSU 39Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
85.4%
Terry Wilkins run for 1 yd to the MTSU 40Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+60
93.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 60 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:429% → 7%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+22
91.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 22 yds to the LT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
90.9%
Hank Bachmeier run for 1 yd to the LT 36Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
91.4%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (Marlion Jackson) to the LT 31Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+15
92.1%
(12:31) BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the left incomplete intended for THORNTON, Charvis thrown to the LAT29; QB hurried by DUNNIGAN, Quindarius, clock 12:26. PENALTY MTS Targeting on DUNNIGAN, Quindarius enforced 15 yards from the LAT31 to the LAT46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
91.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for no gain to the LT 46Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-6
92.1%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Richard Kinley for a loss of 6 yards to the LT 40Similar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
93.2%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 4:3695% → 96%
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
94.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 8 yds to the MTSU 19Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 2
OWN 19
-1
95.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 18Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+20
95.2%
Terry Wilkins run for 20 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
95.8%
Terry Wilkins run for 3 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-1
96.1%
Terry Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 40Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-5
96.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 35Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
96.1%
Trey Turk punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
16 plays · 76 yds · 3:475% → 12%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+22
95.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 22 yds to the LT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
95.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Charvis Thornton for 3 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+8
95.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 8 yds to the MTSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
95.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 11 yds to the MTSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
95.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 8 yds to the MTSU 24Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
95.6%
Jacob Fields run for 5 yds to the MTSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
95.6%
(04:10) BACHMEIER, Hank pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for JACKSON, Marlion thrown to the MTS0, clock 04:06. PENALTY LAT Holding on FIELDS, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the MTS19 to the MTS29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 20
OPP 29
0
96.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 20
OPP 29
+7
96.0%
Charvis Thornton run for 7 yds to the MTSU 22Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 13
OPP 22
+16
96.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 16 yds to the MTSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
95.3%
Charvis Thornton run for 1 yd to the MTSU 5Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
95.4%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (Dakota White) to the MTSU 10Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
95.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
96.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
88.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Charvis Thornton for 10 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1995% → 95%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
94.7%
Terry Wilkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 17Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+4
94.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the MTSU 21Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+1
95.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MTSU 22Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
94.9%
Miles Tillman punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:006% → 6%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
93.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 8 yds to the LT 40Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+8
93.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 8 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-9
93.4%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Parker Hughes and Sam Brumfield for a loss of 9 yards to the LT 39Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 19
OWN 39
+15
94.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 15 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
93.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
94.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:1897% → 97%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.4%
(00:49) [NHSG] Kneel down by VATTIATO, Nicholas at MTS42 (team loss of 4), clock 00:42.Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 14
OWN 42
0
97.1%
(00:31) [NHSG] Kneel down by VATTIATO, Nicholas at MTS38 (team loss of 4), clock 00:23.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:13
Jaiden Credle run for 9 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q2 0:38
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
+9.6
TD · Q3 1:39
Dakota Williams run for 6 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com