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LIB

Liberty 31 at Jacksonville State 13

JXST
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 10, 2023 · AmFirst Stadium
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Win probability · JXST
modelJXST aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playJXST scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+4.4JXST 40.3%Alen Karajic 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 10 · Q2 4:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:09 · Alen Karajic 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Pregame prior−13.7Home team on offense+1.4Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:48: Logan Smothers run for 1 yd for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK) — JXST win probability +4.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:23: Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +6.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:55: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 27 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +13.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:54: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 29 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +10.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:22: Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +6.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8LIB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:29LIB 4th & 18 at LIB 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:20LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:20JXST 4th & 3 at LIB 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:48LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:29LIB 4th & 1 at JXST 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−1.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−4.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:56LIB 4th & 9 at JXST 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:43JXST 4th & 9 at LIB 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:09JXST 4th & 11 at LIB 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:12JXST 4th & 9 at JXST 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:55JXST 4th & 1 at LIB 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.4%−4.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:26JXST 4th & 6 at LIB 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−10.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:01JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:44LIB 4th & 2 at JXST 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−0.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−4.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:40JXST 4th & 9 at LIB 9, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:48JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:23LIB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:55LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:54LIB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:22LIB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2672% → 72%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
27.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-3
27.6%
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 3 yards to the LIB 21Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 13
OWN 21
-5
27.6%
Liberty Penalty, Delay Of Game (Kaidon Salter) to the LIB 16Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 18
OWN 16
0
27.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 18
OWN 16
0
28.3%
Max Morgan punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2INT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:4628% → 29%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 17
OWN 44
+6
28.3%
Malik Jackson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 11
50
-5
28.3%
Jacksonville State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the JVST 45Similar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
28.4%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sean Brown) to the JVST 44Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 16
OWN 45
0
28.7%
Zion Webb pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2371% → 71%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
28.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the LIB 34Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
28.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 36Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
28.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
29.3%
Max Morgan punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4TD
12 plays · 72 yds · 3:3229% → 34%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
29.3%
Zion Webb pass complete to Perry Carter for 18 yds to the JVST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
29.6%
QB Keeper WEBB, Zion rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the LIB49 (CARTER, Joseph). PENALTY LIB Offsides on WHITEHEAD II, Bryan enforced 5 yards from the JSU46 to the LIB49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 5
OPP 49
0
29.7%
Logan Smothers run for no gain to the LIB 49Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
29.7%
Anwar Lewis run for 5 yds to the LIB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
29.7%
Anwar Lewis run for 7 yds to the LIB 37Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
29.7%
Logan Smothers run for no gain to the LIB 37Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
29.6%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+9
29.5%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 9 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
29.7%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the LIB 27Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+25
29.7%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Perry Carter for 25 yds to the LIB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
29.7%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the LIB 1Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.2%
Logan Smothers run for 1 yd for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5FG
19 plays · 62 yds · 7:5267% → 63%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
33.4%
Billy Lucas run for no gain to the LIB 25Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 9 yds to the LIB 34Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
33.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
33.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 40Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+10
32.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
50
+4
32.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the JVST 46Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
32.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the JVST 45Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+5
32.7%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Offsides (Chris Hardie) to the JVST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
32.6%
SALTER, Kaidon pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for DANIELS, CJ thrown to the JSU0. PENALTY JSU Pass Interference on PERRY, Fred enforced 15 yards to the JSU25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
32.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the JVST 19Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
32.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+3
37.6%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the JVST 16Similar
Q1 1:29
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
38.2%
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the JVST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
36.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the JVST 13Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
36.9%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
39.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+31
37.2%
Nick Brown 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6MISSED FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 4:1337% → 40%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.2%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.0%
Anwar Lewis run for 5 yds to the JVST 30Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
36.8%
Logan Smothers run for 9 yds to the JVST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+25
37.8%
Anwar Lewis run for 25 yds to the LIB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
38.6%
Anwar Lewis run for 1 yd to the LIB 35Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
38.9%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+11
38.3%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Quinton Lane for 11 yds to the LIB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
39.0%
Anwar Lewis run for 6 yds to the LIB 18Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+3
39.0%
Anwar Lewis run for 3 yds to the LIB 15Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+1
38.4%
Anwar Lewis run for 1 yd to the LIB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
39.0%
Logan Smothers run for 1 yd to the LIB 13Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
41.5%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
40.9%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+31
39.9%
Alen Karajic 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:2060% → 69%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
40.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 11 yds to the LIB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
39.9%
Billy Lucas run for 18 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
38.5%
Billy Lucas run for no gain to the LIB 49Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+12
38.9%
Kaidon Salter run for 12 yds to the JVST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
38.4%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the JVST 34Similar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+3
37.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the JVST 31Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+25
37.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 25 yds to the JVST 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
30.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:1434% → 40%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.6%
Malik Jackson run for 9 yds to the JVST 34Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
35.2%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the JVST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
33.9%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+28
33.8%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Jordan McCants for 28 yds to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
36.2%
Reggion Bennett run for 2 yds to the LIB 35Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
37.0%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+14
36.0%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Perry Carter for 14 yds to the LIB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
37.1%
Reggion Bennett run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 22Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 11
OPP 22
0
37.0%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 11
OPP 22
0
35.8%
Logan Smothers run for no gain to the LIB 22Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+39
40.3%
Alen Karajic 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9FUMBLE
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:0063% → 65%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
37.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Austin Henderson for 4 yds to the LIB 15Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+2
37.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 17Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+15
38.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 15 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
36.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+9
37.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 9 yds to the LIB 41Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+21
35.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 21 yds to the JVST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
34.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 7 yds to the JVST 31Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
33.9%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the JVST 29Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-5
34.9%
Liberty Penalty, False Start (CJ Daniels) to the JVST 34Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-13
35.4%
Kaidon Salter sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the JVST 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:4046% → 47%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
45.5%
Anwar Lewis run for 6 yds to the LIB 47Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
45.5%
Anwar Lewis run for no gain to the LIB 47Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+15
44.7%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 15 yds to the LIB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
46.7%
Logan Smothers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
40.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at LIB2 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:4443% → 41%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
42.5%
Logan Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the JVST 10Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+8
42.4%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Perry Carter for 8 yds to the JVST 18Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+5
41.1%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Michael Pettway for 5 yds to the JVST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
42.8%
Anwar Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the JVST 21Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+3
42.4%
Logan Smothers run for 3 yds to the JVST 24Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
41.2%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
41.2%
Jack Dawson punt for 65 yds, downed at the LIB 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13TD
12 plays · 89 yds · 6:1759% → 77%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
41.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 14Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+8
41.1%
Aaron Bedgood run for 8 yds to the LIB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
40.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 8 yds to the LIB 30Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+4
39.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
40.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+2
38.6%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the LIB 40Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+7
39.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 7 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
37.9%
Billy Lucas run for 1 yd to the LIB 48Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-3
38.2%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Ricky Samuel for a loss of 3 yards to the LIB 45Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+28
40.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 28 yds to the JVST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
36.2%
Aaron Bedgood run for no gain to the JVST 27Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
23.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 27 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 3:2929% → 36%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.6%
Anwar Lewis run for 1 yd to the JVST 26Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
28.6%
Ashton Frye pass complete to Perry Carter for 18 yds to the JVST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
31.1%
Anwar Lewis run for 1 yd to the JVST 45Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+8
31.0%
Ashton Frye pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 8 yds to the LIB 47Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
32.3%
Ashton Frye run for no gain to the LIB 47Similar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+11
30.6%
Anwar Lewis run for 11 yds to the LIB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
32.6%
Ashton Frye run for 5 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
34.2%
Ashton Frye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+6
32.4%
Ashton Frye run for 6 yds to the LIB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
34.2%
Ashton Frye run for 4 yds to the LIB 21Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
34.2%
Ashton Frye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
32.3%
Ashton Frye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
36.0%
Alen Karajic 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3269% → 85%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.2%
Aaron Bedgood run for 5 yds to the LIB 30Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
30.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 33Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+19
30.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 19 yds to the JVST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
28.0%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Fred Perry) to the JVST 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
26.6%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the JVST 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 24
-5
26.1%
Liberty Penalty, False Start (Chase Mitchell) to the JVST 29Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+29
15.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 29 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5318% → 15%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
17.9%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the JVST 26Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
17.8%
Ashton Frye run for 4 yds to the JVST 30Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
17.5%
Ashton Frye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
15.4%
Jack Dawson punt for 49 yds, downed at the LIB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17TD
17 plays · 79 yds · 9:3983% → 99%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
17.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+15
17.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 15 yds to the LIB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
16.0%
Aaron Bedgood run for 4 yds to the LIB 46Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
15.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the JVST 49Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
16.0%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the JVST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-15
15.6%
Liberty Penalty, Personal Foul (CJ Daniels) to the LIB 45Similar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 19
OWN 45
0
16.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 19
OWN 45
+15
16.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Billy Lucas for 15 yds to the JVST 40Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+8
15.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 8 yds to the JVST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
15.4%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the JVST 29Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-1
15.2%
Quinton Cooley run for a loss of 1 yard to the JVST 30Similar
Q4 6:44
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+6
8.7%
Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the JVST 24Similar
Q4 6:44
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+12
9.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 12 yds to the JVST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
8.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the JVST 7Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+2
8.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the JVST 5Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
1.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:342% → 2%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
2.1%
Ashton Frye pass complete to Sterling Galban for 4 yds to the JVST 40Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+15
2.2%
FRYE, Ashton pass to the right incomplete intended for GALBAN, Sterling thrown to the JSU46. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on BISHOP, Brandon enforced 15 yards to the LIB45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
2.3%
Ashton Frye pass complete to Anwar Lewis for 19 yds to the LIB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
2.7%
Ashton Frye run for 11 yds to the LIB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
2.7%
Anwar Lewis run for 11 yds to the LIB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
2.9%
Ashton Frye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
2.9%
Ashton Frye pass complete to J'Wan Evans for 2 yds to the LIB 2Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-7
2.4%
Ashton Frye run for a loss of 7 yards to the LIB 9 Ashton Frye fumbled, recovered by JVST Ashton FryeSimilar
Q4 1:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
0
1.9%
Ashton Frye pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19END OF GAME
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
0.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the LIB 15Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+5
0.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the LIB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.7%
[NH] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at LIB19 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
0.7%
[NH] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at LIB18 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:55
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 27 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q4 14:54
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 29 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q4 4:22
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
-6.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com