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ARK

Arkansas 20 at Ole Miss 27

MISS
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:44 · Max Fletcher punt for 56 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior+3.1Home team on offense+8.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score differential+0.9Blowout margin+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:08: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 3 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +5.4 pts (now 26%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:34: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +7.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:11: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 17 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +25.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:49: Ulysses Bentley IV run for 7 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +19.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:43: Caden Davis 22 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +4.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ARK made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:54MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:54ARK 4th & 4 at MISS 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:47MISS 4th & 8 at ARK 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−2.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:29MISS 4th & 1 at ARK 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−4.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:53ARK 4th & 12 at MISS 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    23.2%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:16MISS 4th & 15 at MISS 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:22ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:50MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:36ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 17, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:08ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:07ARK 4th & 7 at MISS 38, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.9%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:58MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.7%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:46ARK 4th & 7 at MISS 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−9.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:03MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−3.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:11MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    51.2%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:44ARK 4th & 11 at ARK 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:43MISS 4th & 4 at ARK 4, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.3%−1.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−15.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:08ARK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:29MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:34MISS Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:11ARK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:49MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0680% → 80%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MISS 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
80.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
80.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
79.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 51 yds, downed at the ARK 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 7:4620% → 26%
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
79.7%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 18 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by ARK Raheim SandersSimilar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
79.7%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the ARK 18Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+14
79.7%
JEFFERSON, KJ pass to the left incomplete intended for BRODEN, Tyrone thrown to the ARK33; QB hurried by HARRIS, Zxavian. PENALTY OLE Pass Interference on PRINCE, Deantre enforced 14 yards to the ARK32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
79.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 6 yds to the ARK 38Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
79.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+7
79.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 7 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
79.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 10 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
79.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-12
79.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Isaac Ukwu and Jamond Gordon for a loss of 12 yards to the ARK 45Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 20
OWN 45
+16
79.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 16 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q1 13:54
4TH & 4
OPP 39
+9
79.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 9 yds to the MISS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
79.6%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MISS 35Similar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 15
OPP 35
-5
79.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 40Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+34
79.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 34 yds to the MISS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
79.6%
KJ Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 7Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
79.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 4 yds to the MISS 3Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
74.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 3 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:2175% → 75%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the MISS 26Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
74.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
74.7%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right incomplete intended for HARRIS, Tre broken up by JOHNSON, Lorando at the OLE34. PENALTY ARK Holding on CLARK, Hudson enforced 10 yards from the OLE26 to the OLE36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
75.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 17 yds to the ARK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
75.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 26 yds to the ARK 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
76.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the ARK 17Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+6
76.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the ARK 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
76.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the ARK 8Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-1
76.1%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 9Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
75.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
75.3%
Caden Davis 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:3325% → 25%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 24Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
75.0%
KJ Jefferson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4576% → 77%
Q1 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
76.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the ARK 2Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
76.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the ARK 1Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.5%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the ARK 1Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.0%
Quinshon Judkins 1 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:0723% → 24%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
76.7%
KJ Jefferson sacked by JJ Pegues for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+16
77.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 16 yds to the ARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
76.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the ARK 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+21
75.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 21 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
75.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the MISS 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
75.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-3
75.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to AJ Green for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 38Similar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
76.1%
Max Fletcher punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:3776% → 75%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
75.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 4 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-4
75.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 20Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
74.7%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MISS 15Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
74.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
73.9%
Fraser Masin punt for 44 yds , Isaiah Sategna returns for no gain to the ARK 31Similar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
75.0%
Arkansas Penalty, Illegal Snap on KUTAS, Patrick enforced (Patrick Kutas) to the ARK 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5425% → 24%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+7
75.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 7 yds to the ARK 33Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
74.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
75.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
75.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the MISS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:3275% → 74%
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
75.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MISS 24Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
75.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the MISS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
75.2%
DART, Jaxson pass deep to the right complete for 41 yards to HARRIS, Tre caught at the ARK32 and advanced to the ARK27, out of bounds. PENALTY OLE Holding on PETTUS, Micah enforced 10 yards from the OLE32 to the OLE22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+7
74.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+19
74.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 19 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
76.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 44Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 14
OWN 44
-5
75.3%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Trajan Jeffcoat for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 39Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 19
OWN 39
+10
74.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 10 yds to the MISS 49Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
74.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1425% → 24%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
75.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the ARK 14Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+1
74.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the ARK 15Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+2
75.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the ARK 17Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
76.0%
Max Fletcher punt for 33 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:0277% → 85%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
50
+17
76.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 17 yds to the ARK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
77.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 11 yds to the ARK 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
77.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 16 yds to the ARK 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
77.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
85.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:1117% → 17%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
82.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
82.8%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Suntarine Perkins and Akelo Stone for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 24Similar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
83.5%
Max Fletcher punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 1:0882% → 84%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
82.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
82.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 34Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
82.4%
MASIN, Fraser punt 46 yards to the ARK20, fair catch by SATEGNA, Isaiah, clock 00:34. PENALTY Before the snap, ARK Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the OLE34 to the OLE39 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
83.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
50
+14
84.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 14 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
84.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
84.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 5 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+49
84.0%
Caden Davis 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 4:5318% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 4 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
81.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
82.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 17 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
80.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the ARK 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-5
80.6%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Beaux Limmer) to the ARK 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 43
0
81.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+16
82.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 16 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
80.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the MISS 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+6
80.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 6 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 3
OPP 34
-4
83.3%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 38Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+56
79.8%
Cam Little 56 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:0981% → 84%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
81.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 19 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
82.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 44Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+8
80.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 8 yds to the MISS 49Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
82.2%
Ole Miss Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Jaxson Dart) to the MISS 41Similar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 5
OWN 49
-11
83.6%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Malik Chavis for a loss of 11 yards to the MISS 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16FG
13 plays · 31 yds · 5:1222% → 26%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
77.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the MISS 33Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+4
76.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 4 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
77.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the MISS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
76.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-5
76.4%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Ty Washington) to the MISS 33Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+16
77.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 16 yds to the MISS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
76.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 1 yd Rashod Dubinion fumbled, recovered by ARKSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+11
76.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 11 yds to the MISS 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
76.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the MISS 4Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
76.2%
Arkansas Penalty, False Start (Brady Latham) to the MISS 9Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
76.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
78.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MISS 7Similar
Q3 2:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+26
74.5%
Cam Little 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4377% → 74%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the MISS 31Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-10
77.8%
Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Caden Prieskorn) to the MISS 25Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for no gain to the MISS 25Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
75.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Fraser Masin punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 18TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:5225% → 56%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+20
75.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 20 yds to the ARK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
72.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+2
71.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
71.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 20 yds to the MISS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
70.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 4 yds to the MISS 17Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+17
44.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 17 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2255% → 82%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 2 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
55.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the MISS 33Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
56.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MISS 34Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
53.5%
run for 3 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
55.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 39Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+34
58.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 34 yds to the ARK 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
63.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the ARK 30Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+5
62.0%
Dayton Wade run for 5 yds to the ARK 25Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+9
60.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 9 yds to the ARK 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
63.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the ARK 10Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+3
63.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the ARK 7Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+7
82.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 7 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0525% → 22%
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.4%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the ARK 25Similar
Q4 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 7 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-8
75.0%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Ashanti Cistrunk and Isaac Ukwu for a loss of 8 yards to the ARK 24Similar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
77.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:0184% → 95%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
83.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 28Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
82.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+5
81.5%
Arkansas Penalty, Offsides (Eric Gregory) to the MISS 33Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+15
82.0%
Arkansas Penalty, Roughing the Passer on JEFFCOAT, Trajan enforced (Trajan Jeffcoat) to the ARK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+32
87.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 32 yds to the ARK 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the ARK 3Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
91.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the ARK 2Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
90.2%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 4Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
94.7%
Caden Davis 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:019% → 8%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 7 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
89.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
90.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
91.8%
KJ Jefferson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:5697% → 97%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
97.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
97.2%
Jaxson Dart run for no gain to the ARK 29Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+6
97.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the ARK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
97.2%
[NHSG] Kneel down by DART, Jaxson at ARK24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:11
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 17 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)
-25.9
TD · Q4 7:49
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 7 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+19.3
TD · Q2 1:34
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com