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HOW

Howard 20 at Northwestern 23

NU
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadHOW aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreHOW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:01 · Aaron Bickerton punt for 31 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+39.4Home team on offense+2.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:05: Ja'Shawn Scroggins run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan West KICK) — HOW win probability +4.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: HOW has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:46: Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Johnson for 35 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) — NU win probability +5.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:40: Eden James run for 64 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — HOW win probability +5.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: HOW has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:32: Jarett Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan West KICK) — HOW win probability +24.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:17: Timeout Howard, clock 02:17 — NU win probability +24.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6HOW made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:30HOW 4th & 3 at HOW 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:18NU 4th & 15 at HOW 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:52NU 4th & 13 at NU 30, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:01HOW 4th & 10 at HOW 37, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:59NU 4th & 19 at HOW 41, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    89.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:32HOW 4th & 6 at HOW 46, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:11NU 4th & 3 at NU 27, up 9
    Close callPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:57HOW 4th & 2 at NU 20, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.6%−0.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00HOW 4th & 2 at NU 17, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−0.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    2.6%−3.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:51NU 4th & 3 at HOW 25, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:58NU 4th & 6 at NU 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3HOW made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 12:51NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:26NU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:05HOW Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:46NU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:40HOW Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.4%−0.9
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:32HOW Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.4 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%−2.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0194% → 94%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.3%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the NU 28Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
94.2%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 10 yds to the NU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
94.1%
Cam Porter run for 8 yds to the NU 46Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+12
94.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 12 yds to the HOW 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
94.0%
Brendan Sullivan run for 7 yds to the HOW 35Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+35
94.1%
Brendan Sullivan run for 35 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:116% → 6%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
94.0%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Jr. Wayne Dennis for 7 yds to the HOW 26Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 3
OWN 26
0
93.9%
Ian Wheeler run for no gain to the HOW 26Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
93.9%
Quinton Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 3
OWN 26
0
93.9%
Aaron Bickerton punt for 15 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1194% → 94%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
93.9%
run for a loss of 7 yards to the HOW 48 fumbled, recovered by NU Brendan SullivanSimilar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+2
93.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 2 yds to the HOW 46Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 15
OPP 46
0
93.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
93.6%
Hunter Renner punt for 43 yds, downed at the HOW 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 4SF
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:136% → 6%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
93.6%
Eden James run for 3 yds to the HOW 6Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+2
93.6%
Quinton Williams run for 2 yds to the HOW 8Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 5
OWN 8
0
93.6%
Xander Mueller SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:1393% → 93%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
93.2%
Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the NU 38Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-4
93.3%
Brendan Sullivan run for a loss of 4 yards to the NU 34Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-4
93.1%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Clayton Perrin for a loss of 4 yards to the NU 30Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 13
OWN 30
0
93.0%
Hunter Renner punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the HOW 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:477% → 7%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
93.2%
Ian Wheeler run for 2 yds to the HOW 26Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
93.0%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Ian Wheeler for 2 yds fumbled, forced by Rod Heard II, recovered by HOW Ian WheelerSimilar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+9
93.0%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Breylin Smith for 9 yds to the HOW 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.8%
Ian Wheeler run for no gain to the HOW 37Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
92.7%
Quinton Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
92.8%
Quinton Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
92.8%
Aaron Bickerton punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
14 plays · 26 yds · 4:5693% → 92%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
92.8%
Cam Porter run for 7 yds to the NU 40Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
92.9%
Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the NU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
92.8%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
92.7%
Howard Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the HOW 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
92.6%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the HOW 45Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-10
92.6%
PORTER, Cam rush to the left for no gain to the HU45 (GALLOP, JR., Kenny), clock 02:07. PENALTY NU Holding on MANGIERI, Charlie enforced 10 yards from the HU45 to the NU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 17
OWN 45
+5
92.3%
Brendan Sullivan run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:20
3RD & 12
50
-5
92.1%
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NU 45Similar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 17
OWN 45
+23
92.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 23 yds to the HOW 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
92.4%
Brendan Sullivan run for no gain to the HOW 32Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
92.3%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the HOW 31Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 9
OPP 31
-5
92.1%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Jr. Kenny Gallop for a loss of 5 yards to the HOW 36Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 14
OPP 36
-5
91.5%
Northwestern Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the HOW 41Similar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 19
OPP 41
0
91.5%
Hunter Renner punt for 17 yds, downed at the HOW 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:058% → 8%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
92.1%
run for 7 yds to the HOW 31Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+11
91.8%
Eden James run for 11 yds to the HOW 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
91.6%
Quinton Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
91.7%
Eden James run for 9 yds to the NU 49Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-5
91.4%
Howard Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the HOW 46Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
91.2%
Quinton Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
91.6%
Aaron Bickerton punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1091% → 91%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
90.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd to the NU 21Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+6
90.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 6 yds to the NU 27Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
90.7%
Hunter Renner punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 4:049% → 10%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
91.0%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Kasey Hawthorne for 21 yds to the NU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
90.6%
Eden James run for 5 yds to the NU 40Similar
Q2 9:05
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
90.4%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Breylin Smith for 2 yds to the NU 38Similar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+10
90.3%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for 10 yds to the NU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
89.8%
Ian Wheeler run for no gain to the NU 28Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
89.9%
Eden James run for 4 yds to the NU 24Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+4
89.9%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Eden James for 4 yds to the NU 20Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 2
OPP 20
-3
90.2%
Eden James run for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 5:2491% → 94%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
90.7%
Cam Johnson run for 8 yds to the NU 31Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+6
90.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Johnson for 6 yds to the NU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
90.9%
Cam Porter run for 8 yds to the NU 45Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
91.2%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 46Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
90.7%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
91.0%
Brendan Sullivan run for no gain to the NU 48Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
90.9%
Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the HOW 47Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+11
90.7%
Cam Porter run for 11 yds to the HOW 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
91.1%
Joseph Himon II run for 12 yds to the HOW 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
91.1%
Joseph Himon II run for 10 yds to the HOW 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
91.1%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the HOW 14Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
91.0%
Brendan Sullivan run for 5 yds to the HOW 9Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+5
90.5%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 5 yds to the HOW 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.3%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 4 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
(00:24) [NH] Kneel down by HU at HU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:12.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 13TD
18 plays · 74 yds · 7:497% → 13%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
93.5%
Eden James run for 4 yds to the HOW 30Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+9
93.2%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Kasey Hawthorne for 9 yds to the HOW 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
93.1%
Quinton Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+17
93.2%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for 17 yds to the NU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
92.8%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for 7 yds to the NU 37Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
92.6%
Eden James run for 2 yds to the NU 35Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
92.6%
Eden James run for 2 yds to the NU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
92.4%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Nah'shawn Hezekiah for 9 yds to the NU 24Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+2
92.3%
Jarett Hunter run for 2 yds to the NU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
92.2%
Eden James run for 4 yds to the NU 18Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 18
-2
92.2%
Tony Bedell run for a loss of 2 yards to the NU 20Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+9
92.8%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Nah'shawn Hezekiah for 9 yds to the NU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
92.2%
Eden James run for 3 yds to the NU 8Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
92.2%
Quinton Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+6
92.9%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for 6 yds to the NU 2Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 1
OPP 2
0
93.1%
Northwestern Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the NU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.4%
Quinton Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.5%
Ja'Shawn Scroggins run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan West KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 4:1191% → 96%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
90.7%
Joseph Himon II run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 41Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+6
90.4%
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the NU 47Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+6
90.2%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Johnson for 6 yds to the HOW 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
90.9%
PORTER, Cam rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the HU46 (HOLLON, Terrance). PENALTY Before the snap, HU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the HU47 to the HU42. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 5
OPP 42
+2
90.9%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the HOW 40Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+1
90.9%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the HOW 39Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+7
90.5%
Brendan Sullivan run for 7 yds to the HOW 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
91.1%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the HOW 30Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-5
91.1%
SULLIVAN, Brendan pass short to the left complete for 10 yards to JOHNSON, Cam caught at the HU25 and advanced to the HU20 (HINTON, Carson), out of bounds. PENALTY NU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on THOMPSON, Josh enforced 5 yards from the HU30 to the HU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+35
96.2%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Johnson for 35 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 15DOWNS
16 plays · 46 yds · 5:395% → 3%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
94.9%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for 14 yds to the HOW 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
94.5%
Eden James run for 1 yd to the HOW 40Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+7
94.5%
Eden James run for 7 yds to the HOW 47Similar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+2
94.5%
Eden James run for 2 yds to the HOW 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
94.3%
Quinton Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+26
94.4%
Eden James run for 26 yds to the NU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
93.4%
Quinton Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
93.9%
Jarett Hunter run for 2 yds to the NU 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+6
94.4%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for 6 yds to the NU 17Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+5
94.3%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Richie Ilarraza for 5 yds to the NU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
93.5%
Eden James run for 3 yds to the NU 9Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
94.6%
Quinton Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:59
3RD & 7
OPP 9
-8
95.1%
Quinton Williams sacked by Richie Hagarty for a loss of 8 yards to the NU 17Similar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 15
OPP 17
0
95.7%
Howard Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Intentional Grounding on WILLIAMS, Quinton enforced a result of a (Yards) to the NU 29Similar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
97.2%
TYUS III, Anthony rush to the left for a gain of 16 yards to the NU46 (HARTLEY, Derrick), out of bounds. PENALTY NU Holding on MANGIERI, Charlie enforced 10 yards from the NU30 to the NU20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:1697% → 97%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+2
97.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the NU 22Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+11
97.1%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 11 yds to the NU 33Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+8
97.2%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Johnson for 8 yds to the NU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
97.3%
Howard Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Christian White) to the HOW 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
97.4%
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the HOW 37Similar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 15
OPP 37
0
97.3%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+3
97.3%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 3 yds to the HOW 34Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+9
97.6%
Brendan Sullivan run for 9 yds to the HOW 25Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 3
OPP 25
-11
97.4%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Carson Hinton for a loss of 11 yards to the HOW 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 17TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
92.5%
Eden James run for 64 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3893% → 93%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
93.0%
Cam Porter run for 8 yds to the NU 28Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
93.3%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 29Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-5
93.0%
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NU 24Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
92.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
92.6%
Hunter Renner punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jamarr Ebron at the HOW 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOWDrive 19TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 3:267% → 33%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
93.2%
Eden James run for 1 yd to the HOW 38Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
93.1%
Quinton Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+24
93.6%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Eden James for 24 yds to the NU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
92.4%
Eden James run for 1 yd to the NU 37Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+8
92.3%
Quinton Williams pass complete to Eden James for 8 yds to the NU 29Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+12
91.9%
Eden James run for 12 yds to the NU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+16
91.1%
Eden James run for 16 yds to the NU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.8%
Jarett Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan West KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20END OF GAME
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:1791% → 96%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
90.8%
Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd to the HOW 42Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+10
90.7%
Anthony Tyus III run for 10 yds to the HOW 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
91.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for 10 yds to the HOW 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
91.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for 6 yds to the HOW 16Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+3
95.7%
Howard Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Christian White) to the HOW 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
96.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by NU at HU7 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:32
Jarett Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan West KICK)
-24.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:17
Timeout Howard, clock 02:17
+24
TD · Q3 2:46
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Johnson for 35 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com