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LSU

LSU 49 at Missouri 39

MIZ
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:46 · Luke Bauer punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIZ 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Pregame prior−7.3Home team on offense+5.8Garbage-time factor+2.4Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:00: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 42 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +16.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:22: Cody Schrader run for 2 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +21.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:54: Jayden Daniels run for 35 yds for a TD (Jayden Daniels pass to Malik Nabers for Two-Point Conversion) — LSU win probability +40.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:40: Cody Schrader run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +37.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:58: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 29 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +56.6 pts (now 81%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:35LSU 4th & 5 at LSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:19LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 27, down 8
    Close callPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:43LSU 4th & 11 at MIZ 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    33.6%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:03MIZ 4th & 5 at LSU 44, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    54.0%−2.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:27MIZ 4th & 5 at LSU 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−7.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:12LSU 4th & 10 at MIZ 12, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−11.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:46MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 28, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:23MIZ 4th & 19 at MIZ 11, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−8.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:45LSU 4th & 11 at MIZ 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:08MIZ 4th & 10 at LSU 37, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.8%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 5LSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:50MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    40.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:33LSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:03MIZ Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:47MIZ Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:59LSU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:00LSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:22MIZ Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:54LSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    55.4%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    57.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:40MIZ Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:58LSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−2.6
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:34LSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5969% → 69%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.0%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
31.2%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
31.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
31.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 57 yds, downed at the MIZ 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 3:1032% → 36%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
31.7%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the MIZ 13Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+10
32.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 10 yds to the MIZ 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
32.3%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the MIZ 25Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+35
32.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 35 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
33.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for 6 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+13
33.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 13 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
33.7%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Theo Wease Jr.Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
33.8%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+18
35.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (B. Cook Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 5:5565% → 65%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
35.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+39
35.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 39 yds to the MIZ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
35.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+13
35.6%
Logan Diggs run for 13 yds to the MIZ 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
35.6%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIZ 27Similar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+19
36.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 19 yds to the MIZ 8Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 1
OPP 8
0
36.6%
Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the MIZ 8Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+3
37.2%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the MIZ 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 0
OPP 5
+2
36.9%
Missouri Penalty, Delay of Game (2 Yards) to the MIZ 3Similar
Q1 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
37.4%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the MIZ 1Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.8%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the MIZ 1 for a 1ST down Missouri Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Yards) to the MIZ 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.2%
Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the MIZ 1Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
38.4%
Daniels, Jayden rush for no gain to the MISSOURI1, PENALTY MISSOURI face mask 0 yards to the MISSOURI1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.3%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1938% → 45%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
37.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 22 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
38.8%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 44 Brady Cook fumbled, recovered by MIZ Nathaniel PeatSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+19
38.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 19 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
39.6%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Theo Wease Jr.Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+16
39.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Daniel Blood for 16 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
44.6%
Cody Schrader run for 21 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:3156% → 54%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
43.6%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Darius Robinson and Realus George Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the LSU 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+7
44.6%
Josh Williams run for 7 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-5
44.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 19Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+8
45.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 8 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
45.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 30 yds, downed at the MIZ 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:0846% → 60%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
46.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 3 yds to the MIZ 46Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+23
46.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 23 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
47.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 33Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+4
48.5%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+20
48.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 20 yds to the LSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
59.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 9 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
59.9%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 4:3744% → 40%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 9 yds Brian Thomas Jr. fumbled, recovered by LSUSimilar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
55.5%
Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the LSU 34Similar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
57.2%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
57.7%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+11
58.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 11 yds to the MIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
57.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+12
58.2%
Logan Diggs run for 12 yds to the MIZ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
58.4%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the MIZ 26Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
58.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+5
59.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the MIZ 21Similar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 1
OPP 21
-10
58.9%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIZ 31Similar
Q2 5:43
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+48
59.8%
Damian Ramos 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2961% → 60%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.5%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Luther Burden IIISimilar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 5 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
60.3%
Brady Cook pass intercepted Harold Perkins Jr. return for no gain to the MIZ 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:5641% → 53%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
58.8%
Logan Diggs run for 8 yds to the MIZ 37Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-10
58.8%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIZ 47Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+34
61.2%
Logan Diggs run for 34 yds to the MIZ 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
59.1%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the MIZ 10Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
59.8%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the MIZ 6Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+3
61.9%
Josh Williams run for 3 yds to the MIZ 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
46.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 3 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10END OF HALF
15 plays · 42 yds · 1:4253% → 65%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 4 yds to the MIZ 29Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
53.2%
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds to the MIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
54.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 4 yds to the MIZ 40Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+11
55.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 11 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
56.2%
LSU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 5
OPP 44
0
57.1%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Tyler StephensSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
57.1%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Tyler StephensSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-10
55.9%
Missouri Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIZ 46Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+10
54.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 10 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 5
OPP 44
+11
55.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 11 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+50
65.4%
Harrison Mevis 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11MISSED FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:0362% → 65%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
62.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 14 yds to the MIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
64.1%
Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
65.1%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Tyler StephensSimilar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-5
63.7%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MIZ 40Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+12
63.6%
Brady Cook run for 12 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
66.3%
Brady Cook run for 16 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
67.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for 5 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
67.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
66.3%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+44
64.7%
Harrison Mevis 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Harold Perkins Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:5837% → 46%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
62.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 11 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+27
62.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 27 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
58.9%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the MIZ 33Similar
Q3 9:34
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+21
59.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 21 yds to the MIZ 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
59.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
59.7%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the MIZ 12Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
62.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
53.8%
Damian Ramos 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5959% → 57%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
58.8%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 24Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
59.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 4 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q3 6:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
58.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
57.1%
Luke Bauer punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIZ 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 45 yds · 0:1348% → 64%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
52.3%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+42
36.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 42 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0442% → 67%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
42.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 6 yds to the MIZ 31Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+52
44.6%
Cody Schrader run for 52 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
48.5%
Luther Burden III run for no gain to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-10
48.7%
Missouri Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 27Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 20
OPP 27
+3
46.3%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 17
OPP 24
+5
43.8%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+17
46.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 17 yds to the LSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.4%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16MISSED FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 3:5741% → 39%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.5%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+20
56.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 20 yds to the MIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
55.0%
Logan Diggs run for 15 yds to the MIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
53.5%
Missouri Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnny Walker Jr.) to the MIZ 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
53.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the MIZ 16Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+9
53.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 9 yds to the MIZ 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 0
OPP 7
+5
51.8%
Missouri Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Daylan Carnell) to the MIZ 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-10
51.9%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIZ 12Similar
Q4 14:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
54.3%
Malik Nabers run for 1 yd to the MIZ 11Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 0
OPP 11
-5
53.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MIZ 16Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 0
OPP 16
0
53.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 0
OPP 16
-5
55.3%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MIZ 21Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 0
OPP 21
0
56.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 0
OPP 21
+29
60.7%
Damian Ramos 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:4466% → 68%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
66.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
68.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 17Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-6
67.2%
Brady Cook sacked by Maason Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 11Similar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 19
OWN 11
+81
68.4%
Luke Bauer punt for 73 yds, downed at the LSU 16 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (8 Yards) to the LSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 3:0635% → 71%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
64.9%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Ty'Ron Hopper for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 7Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 11
OWN 7
+2
65.4%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+14
67.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 14 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+35
64.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 35 yds to the MIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
58.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 7 yds to the MIZ 35Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
58.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+35
28.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 35 yds for a TD (Jayden Daniels pass to Malik Nabers for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5241% → 85%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+42
41.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 42 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
48.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 14 yds to the LSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
47.7%
Cody Schrader run for 11 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
47.7%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.0%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1627% → 81%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
73.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 10 yds to the LSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
72.2%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
75.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+31
75.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 31 yds to the MIZ 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
18.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 29 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:4134% → 25%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
33.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
50
+9
39.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 9 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
40.4%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Luther Burden IIISimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 1
OPP 41
-5
40.1%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 6
OPP 46
-26
34.8%
Brady Cook sacked by Bradyn Swinson for a loss of 26 yards to the MIZ 28 Brady Cook fumbled, recovered by MIZSimilar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 32
OWN 28
+4
24.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Daniel Blood for 4 yds to the MIZ 48 lat. to Theo Wease Jr. for 16 yds to the MIZ 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:1790% → 92%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
10.0%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the MIZ 46Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-11
8.5%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 11 yards to the LSU 43 Jayden Daniels fumbled, recovered by LSU Jayden DanielsSimilar
Q4 0:53
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+8
10.3%
Logan Diggs run for 8 yds to the MIZ 49Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
8.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIZ 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0718% → 3%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
18.4%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Theo Wease Jr.Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 5
-17
2.7%
Brady Cook pass intercepted for a TD Major Burns return for 17 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24MISSED FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:133% → 3%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+31
3.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 31 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
3.8%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Theo Wease Jr.Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
3.7%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Marquis JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
3.5%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Tyler StephensSimilar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 10
OPP 37
+54
3.2%
Harrison Mevis 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
3.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:58
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 29 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
-56.6
TD · Q4 7:54
Jayden Daniels run for 35 yds for a TD (Jayden Daniels pass to Malik Nabers for Two-Point Conversion)
-40.7
TD · Q4 5:40
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
+37.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com