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WMU

Western Michigan 28 at Mississippi State 41

MSST
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:54 · Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for no gain to the WMU 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 6Pregame prior+41.2Home team on offense−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:57: Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 23 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +6.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:44: Seth Davis run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Barr-Mira KICK) — MSST win probability +6.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:23: Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 11 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +7.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:31: Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 36 yds for a TD (Nick Barr-Mira KICK) — MSST win probability +6.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:48: Hayden Wolff pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 25 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +8.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WMU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 12:54WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09MSST 4th & 9 at WMU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:25WMU 4th & 2 at MSST 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:04MSST 4th & 11 at WMU 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:39WMU 4th & 14 at WMU 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:01MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:06WMU 4th & 9 at WMU 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:03WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.1%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:06WMU 4th & 1 at MSST 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.8
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−2.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:44WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.4%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:09MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:15WMU 4th & 2 at MSST 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−2.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−1.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:48WMU 4th & 2 at MSST 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−3.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:55MSST 4th & 10 at WMU 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:19WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:12MSST 4th & 5 at WMU 31, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:04MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:03MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:52WMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:18MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:57WMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:44MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:23WMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:31MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:48WMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:068% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the WMU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
92.2%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 12 yds to the WMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
92.2%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Austin Hence for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+7
92.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 7 yds to the WMU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
92.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 3 yds to the WMU 47Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
91.6%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for no gain to the WMU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:4592% → 91%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
91.7%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 13 yds to the WMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
91.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Creed Whittemore for 5 yds to the WMU 29Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+15
91.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 15 yds to the WMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
91.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
91.7%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the WMU 12Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-1
91.7%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMU 13Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+31
91.1%
Kyle Ferrie 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:359% → 9%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.1%
Jack Salopek pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
91.1%
Jack Salopek sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 5 yards to the WMU 20Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+2
91.2%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 2 yds to the WMU 22Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
90.9%
Carson Voss punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 2:3091% → 91%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
90.8%
Simeon Price run for 11 yds to the WMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
90.9%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 45Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+17
90.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 17 yds to the WMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
90.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 13 yds to the WMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
91.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:399% → 9%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.8%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the WMU 27Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+28
90.8%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 28 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
90.5%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 3 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+5
90.9%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 5 yds to the MSST 37Similar
Q1 3:36
3RD & 2
OPP 37
0
90.8%
Jack Salopek pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
91.0%
Jack Salopek pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 35 yds · 5:2191% → 90%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
91.0%
Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
91.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 5 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
91.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
91.2%
Mike Wright run for 7 yds to the WMU 44Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
91.2%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+7
91.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the WMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
90.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the WMU 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+3
90.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 3 yds to the WMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
90.9%
Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the WMU 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
-6
90.9%
Mike Wright pass complete to Creed Whittemore for a loss of 6 yards to the WMU 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
90.6%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+46
90.0%
Kyle Ferrie 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:2510% → 10%
Q2 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
90.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the WMU 32Similar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+1
90.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the WMU 33Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-4
90.3%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for a loss of 4 yards to the WMU 29Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 9
OWN 29
-5
90.6%
Western Michigan Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WMU 24Similar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
90.5%
Carson Voss punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3890% → 90%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
90.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 3 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-5
90.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 43Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+2
90.2%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
90.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
89.3%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zahir Abdus-Salaam at the WMU 15Similar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
90.1%
(09:01) SALOPEK, Jack pass to the right complete for 4 yards to ABDUS-SALAAM, Zahir caught at the WMU9 and advanced to the WMU19 (PRESTON JR., Shawn;WATSON, Nathaniel). PENALTY WMU Holding on ARNOLDI, Kyle enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the WMU15 to the WMU8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:5510% → 10%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 17
OWN 8
0
90.3%
Jack Salopek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 17
OWN 8
-2
90.4%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for a loss of 2 yards to the WMU 6Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 19
OWN 6
+10
90.6%
Jack Salopek run for 10 yds to the WMU 16Similar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
90.4%
Carson Voss punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:0390% → 95%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
90.4%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MSST 49Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+11
90.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 11 yds to the WMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
90.5%
ROGERS, Will pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for MOSLEY, Jordan thrown to the WMU21. PENALTY WMU Pass Interference on BUSSELL, Dashon enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the WMU29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
90.7%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Jett Johnson) to the WMU 34Similar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+2
90.6%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the WMU 32Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+1
90.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Seth Davis for 1 yd to the WMU 31Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+15
90.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 15 yds to the WMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
94.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Creed Whittemore for 16 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:117% → 12%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for no gain to the WMU 25Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
93.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 10 yds to the WMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
93.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 7 yds to the WMU 42Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
92.7%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the WMU 44Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
92.8%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+7
93.1%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 7 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
92.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 9 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
92.6%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+15
92.6%
WOLFF, Hayden pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DIEUDONNE, Malique thrown to the MSU5. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on POLLOCK, Brice enforced 15 yards to the MSU25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
92.3%
Hayden Wolff run for 9 yds to the MSST 16Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
92.3%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
92.6%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the MSST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
92.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Austin Hence for 4 yds to the MSST 10Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
87.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Austin Hence for 10 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:3812% → 12%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
88.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 17 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
88.0%
Hayden Wolff sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 5 yards to the MSST 36Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+14
89.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Austin Hence for 14 yds to the MSST 22Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
87.7%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+42
88.2%
Palmer Domschke 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:4190% → 94%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
89.8%
Seth Davis run for 8 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+14
90.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 14 yds to the WMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+29
90.0%
Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 29 yds to the WMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
90.1%
Seth Davis run for no gain to the WMU 10Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
90.1%
Seth Davis run for 7 yds to the WMU 3Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.4%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:216% → 13%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
94.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 16 yds to the WMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
93.6%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 4 yds to the WMU 45Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
93.4%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 1
50
+3
93.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 3 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
93.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Zahir Abdus-Salaam for 1 yd to the MSST 46Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+4
93.4%
CJ Hester run for 4 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+9
93.4%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 9 yds to the MSST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
92.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 4 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+6
92.7%
CJ Hester run for 6 yds to the MSST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
86.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Blake Bosma for 23 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:1290% → 96%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
90.0%
(08:56) WRIGHT, Mike pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WALLEY, Jaden thrown to the WMU35. PENALTY WMU Pass Interference on KONE, Bilhal enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the WMU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+33
90.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 33 yds to the WMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
90.3%
GRIFFIN, Lideatrick rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the WMU0, TOUCHDOWN MSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 08:07 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MSU Face mask on ELLIS, Malik enforced 15 yards from the WMU3 to the WMU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
0
90.2%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the WMU 18Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+8
90.1%
Mike Wright run for 8 yds to the WMU 10Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
89.6%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
89.2%
FERRIE, Kyle field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at WMU18], score nullified by penalty, clock 06:48. PENALTY WMU Roughing the Kicker on KONE, Bilhal enforced half the distance from the goal, 5 yards from the WMU10 to the WMU5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.1%
Seth Davis run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:215% → 14%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 6 yds to the WMU 31Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
94.6%
CJ Hester run for 3 yds to the WMU 34Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
94.6%
CJ Hester run for no gain to the WMU 34Similar
Q3 6:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+29
94.8%
CJ Hester run for 29 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
94.4%
CJ Hester run for 3 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
93.8%
CJ Hester run for no gain to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+14
94.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 14 yds to the MSST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
93.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 9 yds to the MSST 11Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+11
85.9%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 11 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1490% → 89%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
89.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Seth Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 29Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+5
89.2%
Seth Davis run for 5 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
89.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
88.8%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zahir Abdus-Salaam at the WMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:5411% → 11%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
88.8%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 6 yds to the WMU 30Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+5
88.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 5 yds to the WMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
88.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 8 yds to the WMU 43Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+8
87.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 8 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
86.9%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the MSST 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
87.8%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 3 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+4
88.1%
Mareyohn Hrabowski run for 4 yds to the MSST 41 Mareyohn Hrabowski fumbled, recovered by WMU Zahir Abdus-SalaamSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
88.8%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:4491% → 97%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
90.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 3 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+17
90.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 17 yds to the WMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
90.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
90.6%
Will Rogers run for 3 yds to the WMU 36Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+36
97.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 36 yds for a TD (Nick Barr-Mira KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:433% → 12%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
96.7%
(12:31) WOLFF, Hayden pass short to the left incomplete intended for ABDUS-SALAAM, Zahir thrown to the WMU27. PENALTY MSU Personal Foul on ANDERSON, Deonte enforced 15 yards from the WMU25 to the WMU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
96.5%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Austin Hence for 27 yds to the MSST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
96.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 6 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q4 12:31
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
95.8%
Hayden Wolff pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+2
96.2%
CJ Hester run for 2 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+25
88.0%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 25 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:5390% → 92%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
90.2%
Seth Davis run for 4 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+19
90.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 19 yds to the WMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
91.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
91.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 3 yds to the WMU 44Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-10
90.8%
ROGERS, Will scrambles up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the WMU39 (GREEN, Isaiah). PENALTY MSU Holding on JOHNSON, Kwatrivous enforced 10 yards from the WMU44 to the MSU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:43
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+7
90.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 7 yds to the WMU 47Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
91.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Zahir Abdus-Salaam at the WMU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:368% → 6%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-4
91.7%
Hayden Wolff run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMU 10Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 14
OWN 10
+8
91.9%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 8 yds to the WMU 18Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+3
92.3%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 3 yds to the WMU 21Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
93.9%
Carson Voss punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23FG
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:0794% → 97%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
93.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+19
93.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 19 yds to the WMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
93.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Creed Whittemore for 4 yds to the WMU 32Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+4
94.9%
Creed Whittemore run for 4 yds to the WMU 28Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 2
OPP 28
-3
94.9%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMU 31Similar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+49
97.3%
Nick Barr-Mira 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:083% → 2%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.1%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Kenneth Womack for 9 yds to the WMU 34Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
96.7%
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for no gain to the WMU 34Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-10
96.7%
WOLFF, Hayden pass to the right complete for 12 yards to WOMACK, Kenneth caught at the WMU46 and advanced to the WMU46 (BANKS, Marcus). PENALTY WMU Holding enforced 10 yards from the WMU34 to the WMU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
97.8%
Hayden Wolff pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 36 yds · 3:0498% → 99%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
98.1%
Seth Davis run for 25 yds to the WMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
98.2%
Seth Davis run for 4 yds to the WMU 10Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
98.2%
Seth Davis run for 4 yds to the WMU 6Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+3
98.5%
Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the WMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:48
Hayden Wolff pass complete to Leroy Thomas for 25 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q3 3:23
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 11 yds for a TD (Palmer Domschke KICK)
-7.9
TD · Q3 6:44
Seth Davis run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Barr-Mira KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com