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NEB

Nebraska 20 at Illinois 7

ILL
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 6, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:14 · Hugh Robertson punt for 28 yds, downed at the NEB 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense−0.9Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Pregame prior+6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:37: Heinrich Haarberg run for 25 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK) — NEB win probability +12.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:31: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 46 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +9.4 pts (now 41%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:29: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 5 yds to the ILL 17 — ILL win probability +14.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. FUMBLE · Q4 10:54: Heinrich Haarberg run for a loss of 4 yards to the NEB 41 Heinrich Haarberg fumbled, recovered by NEB Heinrich Haarberg — NEB win probability +13.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:05: Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the ILL 30 — ILL win probability +12.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NEB made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:41ILL 4th & 1 at NEB 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:59NEB 4th & 4 at ILL 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.3%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−2.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:14ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:25ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:05NEB 4th & 5 at ILL 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:52ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:16NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:41NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:53NEB 4th & 8 at ILL 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%−1.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:16NEB 4th & 2 at ILL 13, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%−1.2
    85% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−9.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:16ILL 4th & 20 at ILL 15, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−3.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:44NEB 4th & 6 at ILL 18, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−8.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:03ILL 4th & 1 at midfield, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.4%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:01ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 17, down 13
    Close callPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:06ILL 4th & 4 at NEB 33, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.8
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−2.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:27ILL 4th & 2 at NEB 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NEB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:47NEB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:37NEB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:31ILL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1DOWNS
19 plays · 74 yds · 6:1958% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
57.8%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ILL 20Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
57.8%
Reggie Love III run for 10 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
57.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the ILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
57.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 6 yds to the ILL 44Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+20
58.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 20 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
58.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
58.1%
Nebraska Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NEB 31Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
58.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+11
58.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 11 yds to the NEB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
58.4%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the NEB 16Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+4
58.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the NEB 12Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+3
58.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the NEB 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
58.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 6 yds to the NEB 3Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
58.8%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the NEB 1Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.9%
Luke Altmyer run for no gain to the NEB 1Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.2%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the NEB 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2FG
13 plays · 86 yds · 6:4242% → 44%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
57.9%
Nebraska Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the NEB 1Similar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
57.8%
Heinrich Haarberg run for no gain to the NEB 1Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+39
57.8%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Marcus Washington for 39 yds to the NEB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
57.2%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 8 yds to the NEB 48Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
56.9%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the NEB 49Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-5
57.0%
Nebraska Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NEB 44Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+21
57.2%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 21 yds to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
56.4%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 4 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+12
56.2%
Anthony Grant run for 12 yds to the ILL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
56.0%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the ILL 18Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+1
55.9%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the ILL 17Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+4
56.1%
Anthony Grant run for 4 yds to the ILL 13Similar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+31
55.8%
Tristan Alvano 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:3956% → 55%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
55.8%
Nebraska Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
55.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 4 yds to the ILL 39Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
57.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
55.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
55.4%
Hugh Robertson punt for 28 yds, downed at the NEB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5844% → 44%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
55.6%
Joshua Fleeks run for 1 yd to the NEB 34Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-5
55.7%
Nebraska Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the NEB 29Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+5
56.2%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 5 yds to the NEB 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
55.9%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Jaidyn DossSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
56.3%
Brian Buschini punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1956% → 55%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
55.6%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the ILL 35Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+5
55.5%
Luke Altmyer run for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 36 Luke Altmyer fumbled, recovered by ILL Luke Altmyer Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
55.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
54.5%
Hugh Robertson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the NEB 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 6:3245% → 59%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
55.2%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 3 yds to the NEB 24Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+10
55.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Alex Bullock for 10 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
54.4%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 6 yds to the NEB 40Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+16
53.5%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the ILL 41 for a 1ST down Illinois Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Alec Bryant) to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
53.0%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
53.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Malachi Coleman for 5 yds to the ILL 39Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
53.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+6
54.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Alex Bullock for 6 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
51.7%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Anthony GrantSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
51.7%
Heinrich Haarberg run for no gain to the ILL 33Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+21
52.5%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Ty Hahn for 21 yds to the ILL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
49.8%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 11 yds to the ILL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
49.7%
Heinrich Haarberg run for no gain to the ILL 1Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.7%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
30.2%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 25 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3035% → 33%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
34.9%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the ILL 21Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
34.5%
Luke Altmyer run for no gain to the ILL 21Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-4
33.9%
Luke Altmyer sacked by John Bullock for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 17Similar
Q2 4:52
4TH & 10
OWN 17
0
33.2%
Hugh Robertson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the NEB 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2471% → 71%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
29.3%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the NEB 36Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
28.5%
Heinrich Haarberg run for no gain to the NEB 36Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
28.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Malachi ColemanSimilar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
28.9%
Brian Buschini punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:3832% → 41%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+20
31.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 20 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
32.9%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Jimari Butler for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 43Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+6
31.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 6 yds to the ILL 49Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+5
31.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Griffin Moore for 5 yds to the NEB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
41.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 46 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:3461% → 60%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
39.4%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 7 yds to the NEB 32Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
38.2%
Emmett Johnson run for 4 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
37.9%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
38.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
39.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
39.8%
Brian Buschini punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 29 yds · 0:3238% → 38%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
38.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 18 yds to the NEB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
40.1%
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the NEB 43Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-4
39.5%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Jimari Butler and Princewill Umanmielen for a loss of 4 yards to the NEB 47Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+10
37.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Reggie Love III for 10 yds to the NEB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
38.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
39.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+55
38.2%
Caleb Griffin 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
37.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:5361% → 65%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
38.6%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 14 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
37.1%
Anthony Grant run for 9 yds to the NEB 45Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+7
35.8%
Anthony Grant run for 7 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
34.5%
Anthony Grant run for 6 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+1
34.1%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the ILL 41Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-5
34.4%
Nebraska Penalty, False Start (Bryce Benhart) to the ILL 46Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
34.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Nate BoerkircherSimilar
Q3 10:53
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
35.3%
Brian Buschini punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:4335% → 33%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
34.5%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the ILL 14Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
34.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 9
OWN 14
+17
32.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Griffin Moore for 17 yds to the ILL 31, Griffin Moore fumbled, recovered by NEB Tommi Hill, return for 10 yds to the ILL 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2968% → 74%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
32.4%
Heinrich Haarberg run for no gain to the ILL 21Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
32.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 9 yds to the ILL 12Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-1
32.7%
Anthony Grant run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 13Similar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+32
26.4%
Tristan Alvano 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:5330% → 28%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
30.1%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 9 yards to the ILL 16Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 19
OWN 16
-1
29.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 15Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
28.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Kaden FeaginSimilar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+7
27.9%
Hugh Robertson punt blocked by Blaise Gunnerson for a 1ST down blocked by Blaise Gunnerson for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1277% → 78%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
22.6%
Anthony Grant run for no gain to the ILL 22Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
20.3%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 4 yds to the ILL 18Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
20.0%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Thomas Fidone IISimilar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+36
22.1%
Tristan Alvano 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:3028% → 26%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for no gain to the ILL 20Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+21
26.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 21 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
27.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for no gain to the ILL 41Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
26.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ashton Hollins for 5 yds to the ILL 46Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
25.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ashton Hollins for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 1
50
0
25.5%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20FUMBLE
13 plays · 38 yds · 6:1683% → 96%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
50
+6
17.1%
Anthony Grant run for 6 yds to the ILL 44Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
16.3%
Anthony Grant run for no gain to the ILL 44Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+8
13.9%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 8 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
12.3%
Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the ILL 33Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+8
11.5%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 8 yds to the ILL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
10.8%
Emmett Johnson run for 4 yds to the ILL 21Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-3
10.7%
Emmett Johnson run for 12 yds to the ILL 9 for a 1ST down Nebraska Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the ILL 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
10.4%
Emmett Johnson run for 7 yds to the ILL 17Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 3
OPP 17
0
8.2%
Emmett Johnson run for no gain to the ILL 17Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+5
8.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Janiran Bonner for 5 yds to the ILL 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
4.1%
Emmett Johnson run for no gain to the ILL 12 Emmett Johnson fumbled, recovered by ILL Kenenna OdelugaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2819% → 18%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
18.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 5 yds to the ILL 17Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
18.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
18.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
17.9%
Hugh Robertson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the NEB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:3896% → 96%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
4.3%
Heinrich Haarberg run for a loss of 4 yards to the NEB 41 Heinrich Haarberg fumbled, recovered by NEB Heinrich HaarbergSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 14
OWN 41
0
3.9%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Thomas Fidone IISimilar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 14
OWN 41
0
4.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass intercepted Xavier Scott return for no gain to the ILL 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23INT
6 plays · 5 yds · 2:0617% → 11%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
16.7%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+6
15.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 6 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
16.2%
Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ILL 26Similar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 20
OWN 26
-1
12.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 25Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+6
11.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 6 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 15
OWN 31
-54
10.5%
Luke Altmyer pass intercepted Quinton Newsome return for 39 yds to the NEB 30 Nebraska Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the ILL 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24FUMBLE
10 plays · 14 yds · 3:4397% → 99%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
2.8%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 6 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+6
2.5%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 6 yds to the ILL 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
2.2%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the ILL 16Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 9
OPP 16
-5
2.0%
Nebraska Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ILL 21Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 14
OPP 21
+13
2.2%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 13 yds to the ILL 8Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+3
1.9%
Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the ILL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-5
1.5%
Nebraska Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ILL 10Similar
Q4 4:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
1.6%
Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Alec Bryant and Jer'Zhan Newton for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 14Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 0
OPP 14
-1
1.5%
Anthony Grant run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 15 Anthony Grant fumbled, recovered by ILL James KreutzSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25DOWNS
13 plays · 67 yds · 2:315% → 5%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
5.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Tip ReimanSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+18
4.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 18 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
4.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Ashton Hollins for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
50
+11
5.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 11 yds to the NEB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
5.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
5.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 6 yds to the NEB 33Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
6.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Griffin MooreSimilar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+7
4.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 7 yds to the NEB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
5.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+8
5.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 8 yds to the NEB 18Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
4.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 2
OPP 18
0
4.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:4599% → 99%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
1.3%
Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds to the NEB 20Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-5
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NEB 15Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 13
OWN 15
-3
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NEB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:29
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 5 yds to the ILL 17
+14.9
FUMBLE · Q4 10:54
Heinrich Haarberg run for a loss of 4 yards to the NEB 41 Heinrich Haarberg fumbled, recovered by NEB Heinrich Haarberg
-13.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 10:05
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the ILL 30
+12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com