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BC

Boston College 27 at Army 24

ARMY
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2023 · Michie Stadium
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Win probability · ARMY
modelARMY aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playARMY scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:56 · Cooper Allan punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARMY 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Pregame prior+3.5Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:48: Tyrell Robinson run for 10 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +14.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 7:36: Thomas Castellanos run for 10 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +16.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:51: Hayden Reed run for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +17.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 11:43: Bryson Daily pass complete to Tyson Riley for 9 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK) — ARMY win probability +22.1 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:25: Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Connor KICK) — BC win probability +75.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARMY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:49BC 4th & 2 at BC 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:11ARMY 4th & 5 at ARMY 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:07BC 4th & 2 at BC 36, up 6
    Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:55ARMY 4th & 9 at ARMY 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:08ARMY 4th & 5 at BC 5, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−6.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:08BC 4th & 3 at ARMY 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    44.6%−0.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:27BC 4th & 3 at ARMY 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    47.6%−0.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−6.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:23BC 4th & 21 at BC 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−7.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:19BC 4th & 2 at ARMY 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−5.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−6.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:24ARMY 4th & 4 at ARMY 48, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:24BC 4th & 4 at ARMY 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−1.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−7.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:35BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:24BC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:48ARMY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:36BC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:51ARMY Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:43ARMY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:25BC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:1146% → 46%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
53.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Jeremiah FranklinSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
53.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
53.8%
PENALTY ARMY Offside (Keith,Chance) 5 yards from BC 32 to BC 37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
53.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
53.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+3
53.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
54.1%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5354% → 54%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
54.2%
Noah Short run for 2 yds to the ARMY 17Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+6
54.2%
Tyrell Robinson run for 6 yds to the ARMY 23Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+1
54.0%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Noah Short for 1 yd to the ARMY 24Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
54.0%
Cooper Allan punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARMY 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 2:2146% → 48%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
53.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 8 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+6
53.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Lewis Bond for 6 yds to the ARMY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
53.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the ARMY 22Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+2
53.6%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the ARMY 20Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+20
52.2%
Thomas Castellanos run for 20 yds for a TD (Liam Connor PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:2453% → 52%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.0%
Kanye Udoh run for 3 yds to the ARMY 28Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
52.9%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the ARMY 26Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
52.7%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the ARMY 30Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
51.8%
Cooper Allan punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0448% → 49%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
52.0%
Alex Broome run for 4 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
51.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the BC 28 Thomas Castellanos fumbled, recovered by BC Thomas CastellanosSimilar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+8
52.5%
Thomas Castellanos run for 8 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
51.3%
Loren DiLoreto punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cameron Jones at the ARMY 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:1252% → 51%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
52.2%
Tyrell Robinson run for 4 yds to the ARMY 37Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
52.8%
Zach Mundell run for 2 yds to the ARMY 39Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
52.6%
Tyrell Robinson run for no gain to the ARMY 39Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 4
OWN 39
-5
51.8%
PENALTY ARMY False Start (Nicolas-Paul,Bo) 5 yards from ARMY39 to ARMY34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
50.5%
Cooper Allan punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:0049% → 51%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
50.8%
Alex Broome run for 3 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 14
-10
50.8%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Jack Latore for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 4
+57
51.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaden Williams for 57 yds to the ARMY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
49.0%
Alex Broome run for no gain to the ARMY 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+20
49.0%
Alex Broome run for 20 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 30
OWN 41
0
49.1%
Thomas Castellanos pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 8FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:4753% → 54%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
52.5%
Bryson Daily run for 14 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+21
53.4%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Tyrell Robinson for 21 yds to the BC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
53.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
53.4%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Joshua LingenfelterSimilar
Q2 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
52.3%
Hayden Reed run for 1 yd to the BC 5Similar
Q2 10:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
53.8%
Quinn Maretzki 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 8:4448% → 65%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
52.1%
Nate Johnson run for 18 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
50.8%
Pat Garwo III run for no gain to the BC 43Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
51.1%
Thomas Castellanos run for 10 yds to the ARMY 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
50.4%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the ARMY 45Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
50.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 2 yds to the ARMY 43Similar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
49.9%
Alex Broome run for 4 yds to the ARMY 31Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
49.7%
Nate Johnson run for no gain to the ARMY 31Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+3
50.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the ARMY 28Similar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+4
51.9%
Pat Garwo III run for 4 yds to the ARMY 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
49.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the ARMY 20Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
49.6%
Pat Garwo III run for 2 yds to the ARMY 18Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
50.4%
Boston College Penalty, Illegal Motion (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+8
50.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 8 yds to the ARMY 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+5
47.4%
Pat Garwo III run for 5 yds to the ARMY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
44.2%
Alex Broome run for 4 yds to the ARMY 8Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+4
43.5%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds to the ARMY 4Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
35.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for 4 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:1934% → 32%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
33.7%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Hayden Reed for 7 yds to the ARMY 30Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+10
34.1%
Bryson Daily run for 10 yds to the ARMY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
34.9%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the ARMY 40Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
34.5%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the ARMY 40 Bryson Daily fumbled, recovered by BC Connor FinucaneSimilar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+2
33.8%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Tobi Olawole for 2 yds to the ARMY 42 Army Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
31.9%
Cooper Allan punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11TD
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:5639% → 53%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
38.8%
Bryson Daily run for 14 yds to the BC 23 Bryson Daily fumbled, recovered by BC Tyrell Robinson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
40.1%
Tyrell Robinson run for 5 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
38.2%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+1
37.0%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
38.2%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the BC 10Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
52.9%
Tyrell Robinson run for 10 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1253% → 72%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
46.9%
Pat Garwo III run for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
45.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
45.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
45.7%
Pat Garwo III run for 5 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+50
44.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 50 yds to the ARMY 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
28.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 10 yds for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:3631% → 53%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
30.8%
Bryson Daily run for 9 yds to the ARMY 40Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+23
32.3%
Bryson Daily run for 23 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
33.6%
Hayden Reed run for no gain to the BC 37Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
33.3%
Hayden Reed run for 2 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+15
33.4%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Noah Short for 15 yds to the BC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
34.9%
Tyrell Robinson run for 4 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+10
34.9%
Bryson Daily run for 10 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
52.6%
Hayden Reed run for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:2157% → 54%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+22
42.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 22 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
39.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Garwo,Patrick rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BC 43 (Lowin,Leo) PENALTY BC Holding (Kendall,Drew) 10 yards from BC 39 to BC 29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 20
OWN 29
-10
42.8%
Boston College Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the BC 26Similar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 23
OWN 26
+2
42.8%
Lewis Bond run for 2 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 21
OWN 28
0
43.6%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Josiah GriffinSimilar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 21
OWN 28
0
44.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Lewis BondSimilar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 21
OWN 28
+6
45.8%
Sam Candotti punt for 39 yds , Cameron Jones returns for 6 yds to the ARMY 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:1747% → 75%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
46.7%
Tyrell Robinson run for 2 yds to the ARMY 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+27
48.4%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Casey Reynolds for 27 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
52.8%
Hayden Reed run for 7 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+2
52.8%
Kanye Udoh run for 2 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+4
49.9%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the BC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
52.7%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Hayden Reed for 10 yds to the BC 9 for a 1ST down Boston College Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Jaden Williams) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
74.8%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Tyson Riley for 9 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:2433% → 36%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
66.3%
Pat Garwo III run for 7 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
64.8%
Pat Garwo III run for 1 yd to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.2%
Thomas Castellanos pass incomplete to Josiah GriffinSimilar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
66.0%
Alex Broome run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
50
-1
61.0%
Thomas Castellanos sacked by Cameron Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 49Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+1
63.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 10
50
+8
64.4%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Josiah Griffin for 8 yds to the ARMY 42Similar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
64.0%
Thomas Castellanos run for no gain to the ARMY 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5580% → 80%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
80.1%
Kanye Udoh run for 3 yds to the ARMY 45Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
80.2%
Hayden Reed run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 2
50
+55
81.7%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Hayden Reed for 50 yds Boston College Penalty, (5 Yards) to the ARMY 48Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
80.4%
Cooper Allan punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18TD
17 plays · 62 yds · 4:5932% → 95%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
67.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+18
64.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for 18 yds to the ARMY 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
63.4%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the ARMY 36Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-5
63.6%
PENALTY BC False Start (Hergel,Kyle) 5 yards from ARMY36 to ARMY41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+3
66.3%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the ARMY 38Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+6
65.7%
Alex Broome run for 6 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+5
66.8%
Thomas Castellanos run for 5 yds to the ARMY 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
60.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the ARMY 23Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+3
60.5%
Thomas Castellanos run for 3 yds to the ARMY 20Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+17
71.6%
Thomas Castellanos run for 17 yds to the ARMY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
67.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the ARMY 1Similar
Q4 1:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.5%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the ARMY 1Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.7%
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:1818% → 13%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.0%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Noah ShortSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
17.6%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Casey ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
16.9%
PENALTY ARMY Delay Of Game 5 yards from ARMY25 to ARMY20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+10
12.5%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Casey Reynolds for 10 yds Casey Reynolds fumbled, recovered by BC John PupelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0796% → 96%
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
4.5%
PENALTY ARMY Offside (Richardson,Darius) 5 yards from ARMY30 to ARMY25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 25
-2
4.4%
T. Castellanos takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:25
Thomas Castellanos run for 1 yd for a TD (Liam Connor KICK)
-75.2
TD · Q4 11:43
Bryson Daily pass complete to Tyson Riley for 9 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
+22.1
TD · Q3 2:51
Hayden Reed run for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Talley KICK)
+17.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com