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FIU

Florida International 17 at New Mexico State 34

NMSU
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2023 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreFIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Haden Carlson pass complete to Dean Patterson for 33 yds to the NMSU 7 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:33: Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordin Parker for 49 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:26: Shomari Lawrence run for 6 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK) — FIU win probability +16.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 1:01: Chase Gabriel 41 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +7.3 pts (now 44%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:53: Diego Pavia run for 43 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +20.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:35: Star Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +7.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8FIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:52FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:52NMSU 4th & 1 at FIU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:05NMSU 4th & 20 at NMSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:55FIU 4th & 1 at NMSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.4%−0.7
    87% to make
    Punt
    32.3%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:02NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:03FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:58FIU 4th & 12 at FIU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−1.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:20NMSU 4th & 5 at FIU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:44NMSU 4th & 5 at FIU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−10.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:37FIU 4th & 3 at NMSU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    33.1%−3.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:01FIU 4th & 5 at NMSU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    23.0%−10.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:22FIU 4th & 16 at FIU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−3.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:38NMSU 4th & 19 at NMSU 11, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:26NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:13FIU 4th & 12 at FIU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:12NMSU 4th & 6 at FIU 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 7:18NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:41FIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:33NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:26FIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:53NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:35NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FIUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0831% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 6 yds to the FIU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
68.7%
Shomari Lawrence run for 2 yds to the FIU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
68.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:52
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
68.5%
Daton Montiel punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 6:3469% → 71%
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+24
68.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 24 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
68.6%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 47Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+4
68.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 4 yds to the FIU 49Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+6
68.6%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the FIU 43Similar
Q1 13:52
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+3
68.6%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the FIU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
68.6%
Florida International Penalty, Offsides (Jordan Guerad) to the FIU 35Similar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+3
68.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the FIU 32Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+4
68.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 4 yds to the FIU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
68.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 4 yds to the FIU 24Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+14
68.7%
Monte Watkins run for 14 yds to the FIU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
68.7%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the FIU 11Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
70.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 11 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3730% → 34%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.1%
Keyone Jenkins run for 7 yds to the FIU 32Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
69.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
70.1%
Keyone Jenkins run for 14 yds to the FIU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+40
69.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 40 yds to the NMSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
69.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 4 yds to the NMSU 10Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
69.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 4 yds to the NMSU 6Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
66.0%
Keyone Jenkins run for 6 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:3267% → 66%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
67.1%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the NMSU 22Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
67.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-13
66.6%
Diego Pavia sacked for a loss of 13 yards to the NMSU 9Similar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 20
OWN 9
0
65.9%
Zach Haynes punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:1034% → 35%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
65.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 19 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
65.2%
Keyone Jenkins run for 15 yds to the NMSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
65.1%
Kejon Owens run for 7 yds to the NMSU 13Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 3
OPP 13
-1
65.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 14Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+3
65.5%
Kejon Owens run for 3 yds to the NMSU 11Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
65.2%
Keyone Jenkins run for no gain to the NMSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5367% → 65%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+15
66.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 15 yds to the NMSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
66.7%
Monte Watkins run for 3 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-10
66.8%
WATKINS, Monte rush to the left for no gain to the NMS29 (CHRISTIAN, CJ). PENALTY NMS Holding on PETE, Shiyazh enforced 10 yards from the NMS29 to the NMS19 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+9
66.4%
Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+5
66.0%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the NMSU 33Similar
Q2 13:02
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
65.6%
Zach Haynes punt for 39 ydsSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
65.1%
Florida International Penalty, False Start (Travis Burke) to the FIU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:5935% → 34%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+6
65.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 6 yds to the FIU 29Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-5
65.2%
Florida International Penalty, False Start (Phillip Houston) to the FIU 24Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+1
65.5%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson McDonald for 1 yd to the FIU 25Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+4
66.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 4 yds to the FIU 29Similar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
66.1%
Daton Montiel punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 2:3066% → 74%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
66.0%
Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+12
66.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 12 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
67.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+11
66.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 11 yds to the FIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
74.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordin Parker for 49 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3528% → 26%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
72.1%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Gabe Peterson and Gabriel Iniguez for a loss of 5 yards to the FIU 20Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
72.4%
Florida International Penalty, False Start (Wyatt Lawson) to the FIU 15Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+8
72.4%
Keyone Jenkins run for 8 yds to the FIU 23Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
73.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
74.1%
Daton Montiel punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10INT
4 plays · 30 yds · 2:0875% → 76%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
74.8%
Monte Watkins run for 12 yds to the FIU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
75.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 12 yds to the FIU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
75.3%
Jonathan Brady run for 6 yds to the FIU 28Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
75.8%
Diego Pavia pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:2427% → 44%
Q2 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+10
73.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 10 yds to the FIU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
72.8%
New Mexico State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sterling Webb) to the FIU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
72.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 4 yds to the FIU 42Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+4
71.4%
Kejon Owens run for 4 yds to the FIU 46Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+36
71.5%
Kejon Owens run for 36 yds to the NMSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
69.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 12 yds to the NMSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
69.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
73.1%
Kejon Owens run for 1 yd to the FIU 20Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
56.2%
Shomari Lawrence run for 6 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 1:0664% → 62%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
64.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 12 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
65.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
64.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 6 yds to the NMSU 43Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
64.9%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
66.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
65.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+5
62.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 5 yds to the FIU 47Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
62.4%
Zach Haynes punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
59.8%
Kneel down by JENKINS, Keyone at FIU19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 7:1664% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.2%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMSU 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
64.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 5 yds to the NMSU 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
63.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 8 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
65.4%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMSU 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+15
65.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 15 yds to the FIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
67.2%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the FIU 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+25
66.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 25 yds to the FIU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
67.8%
Star Thomas run for 13 yds to the FIU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
67.8%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the FIU 6Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
67.8%
Eli Stowers run for 1 yd to the FIU 5Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
66.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
69.4%
Ethan Albertson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 6:3633% → 44%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
67.0%
Shomari Lawrence run for 3 yds to the FIU 20Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+3
67.2%
Keyone Jenkins run for 3 yds to the FIU 23Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+7
68.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 7 yds to the FIU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
66.5%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 21 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-9
62.7%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Keyshaun Elliott for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 11
50
+8
65.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Shomari Lawrence for 8 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+5
65.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Rocky Beers for 5 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
63.1%
JENKINS, Keyone pass short to the left complete for 2 yards to LAWRENCE, Shomari caught at the NMS35 and advanced to the NMS35 (EARLY, Dylan). PENALTY NMS Holding on SCULARK, BJ enforced 10 yards from the NMS37 to the NMS27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
61.5%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 8 yds to the NMSU 19Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 2
OPP 19
-3
61.5%
Keyone Jenkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMSU 22Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
63.0%
Keyone Jenkins run for no gain to the NMSU 22Similar
Q3 1:01
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+41
55.7%
Chase Gabriel 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:0861% → 86%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
60.9%
Monte Watkins run for 28 yds to the FIU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
65.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 4 yds to the FIU 43Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+43
86.3%
Diego Pavia run for 43 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:3121% → 17%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 5 yds to the FIU 30Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
77.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 5 yds to the FIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
77.8%
Kejon Owens run for no gain to the FIU 35Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
78.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-6
79.6%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Izaiah Reed and Noah Arinze for a loss of 6 yards to the FIU 29Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
83.3%
Daton Montiel punt for 32 yds, downed at the NMSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:4787% → 95%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
86.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 26 yds to the FIU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
87.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+32
87.7%
Monte Watkins run for 32 yds to the FIU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.2%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19INT
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:438% → 9%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
92.5%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jackson McDonald for 12 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
91.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 18 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+40
91.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 40 yds to the NMSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
90.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 2:1495% → 96%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
95.4%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMSU 21Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-5
95.4%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 16Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
95.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 14
OWN 16
-5
95.2%
Diego Pavia sacked by Alex Nobles for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 11Similar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 19
OWN 11
0
95.7%
Zach Haynes punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:297% → 7%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.0%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Rocky Beers for no gain to the FIU 47Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
93.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4397% → 97%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
96.6%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the NMSU 44Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
96.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Monte Watkins for 4 yds to the NMSU 48Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
96.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
96.8%
Zach Haynes punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FIU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:134% → 4%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
95.8%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Izaiah Reed for a loss of 4 yards to the FIU 4Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+12
95.8%
Keyone Jenkins run for 12 yds to the FIU 16 Keyone Jenkins fumbled, recovered by FIU Keyone JenkinsSimilar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 2
OWN 16
-5
95.6%
Florida International Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the FIU 11Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 7
OWN 11
-5
95.7%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Jordan Vincent for a loss of 5 yards to the FIU 6Similar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 12
OWN 6
+4
96.3%
Keyone Jenkins run for 4 yds to the FIU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24FG
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0198% → 99%
Q4 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
97.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the FIU 7Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
98.6%
Makhilyn Young run for 4 yds to the FIU 3Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
98.6%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 3 yards to the FIU 6Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+28
98.9%
Ethan Albertson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:122% → 2%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
98.4%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 12 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
98.3%
Keyone Jenkins run for 5 yds to the FIU 42Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+13
98.3%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Eric Rivers for 13 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-9
98.2%
Haden Carlson sacked by Dion Wilson Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the FIU 46Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 19
OWN 46
+14
98.5%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Dean Patterson for 14 yds to the NMSU 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+33
98.2%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Dean Patterson for 33 yds to the NMSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:53
Diego Pavia run for 43 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
+20.9
TD · Q2 1:26
Shomari Lawrence run for 6 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK)
-16.9
TD · Q4 10:35
Star Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
+7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com