Try the model
SHSU

Sam Houston 16 at Liberty 21

LIB
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2023 · Williams Stadium (VA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreSHSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:43 · Jadon Cardell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brylan Green at the LIB 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior+10.6Home team on offense+5.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential+0.4Time remaining+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:54: Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +2.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:21: Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 51 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +7.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:36: Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 20 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — SHSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 4:36: Timeout Sam Houston, clock 04:36 — LIB win probability +3.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00: [NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at LIB2 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00. — LIB win probability +12.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7SHSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 4:27SHSU 4th & 6 at LIB 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:31SHSU 4th & 6 at SHSU 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:51LIB 4th & 17 at SHSU 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    83.2%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:36SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:08LIB 4th & 5 at LIB 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:07SHSU 4th & 5 at LIB 45, down 11
    Close callPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:09LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:49SHSU 4th & 2 at SHSU 28, down 11
    Close callPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:24LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:08LIB 4th & 17 at SHSU 17, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−4.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−11.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:43SHSU 4th & 1 at SHSU 40, down 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.8 ptsPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−3.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:18LIB 4th & 3 at SHSU 22, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%−1.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−13.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:22SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 25, down 5
    Close callPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:36LIB 4th & 19 at SHSU 43, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−2.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:22SHSU 4th & 2 at LIB 7, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    14.1%−7.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−14.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:07SHSU 4th & 3 at LIB 3, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−27.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−29.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SHSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:52LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:46SHSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:54LIB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:21LIB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:36SHSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    21.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 2:0290% → 90%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
90.1%
Aaron Bedgood run for 3 yds to the LIB 29Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+23
90.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 23 yds to the SHSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
90.1%
Aaron Bedgood run for 10 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+28
90.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 28 yds to the SHSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
89.9%
Kaidon Salter run for 10 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 6:0010% → 13%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
89.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 2 yds to the SHSU 17Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+23
89.8%
Malik Phillips run for 8 yds to the SHSU 25 for a 1ST down Liberty Penalty, Personal Foul (Brandon Bishop) to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
89.7%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+8
89.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 8 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
89.7%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the LIB 47Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
89.7%
run for no gain to the LIB 47Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+10
89.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 10 yds to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
89.7%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 12 yds to the LIB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
89.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 11 yds to the LIB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
89.6%
SHOEMAKER, Keegan pass to the left incomplete intended for EVANS, Simeon thrown to the LIB0. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on HODGE, Preston enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the LIB2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.6%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the LIB 1Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
88.5%
QB Keeper SHOEMAKER, Keegan rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the LIB0, TOUCHDOWN SHS, score nullified by penalty, clock 07:35 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY Before the snap, SHS Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the LIB1 to the LIB6. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
88.5%
Noah Smith run for 4 yds to the LIB 2Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
88.7%
Sam Houston Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LIB 7Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
87.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 7 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:4188% → 87%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
87.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the LIB 28Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
87.3%
Kaidon Salter pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 4FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3214% → 14%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
86.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-1
86.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 21Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+5
86.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 5 yds to the LIB 16Similar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
86.0%
Colby Sessums 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 4:2685% → 86%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
85.2%
Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the LIB 23Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
85.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Austin Henderson for 7 yds to the LIB 30Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+32
85.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 32 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
86.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 13 yds to the SHSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
86.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the SHSU 23Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+16
86.2%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Austin Henderson for 16 yds to the SHSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
86.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the SHSU 4Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
84.1%
Aaron Bedgood run for 3 yds to the SHSU 1Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1714% → 14%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
86.3%
Noah Smith sacked by Brylan Green for a loss of 5 yards to the SHSU 15Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+3
86.4%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 3 yds to the SHSU 18Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+6
86.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Landan Brown for 6 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
86.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 57 yds, downed at the LIB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 37 yds · 6:4086% → 84%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
85.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Victor Venn for 1 yd to the LIB 20Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+3
85.7%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the LIB 23Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+8
85.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 8 yds to the LIB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
85.9%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
85.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 34Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-10
85.6%
QB Keeper SALTER, Kaidon rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the LIB40 (DOWNES, Isaiah). PENALTY LIB Holding on GRAY, Xavior enforced 10 yards from the LIB34 to the LIB24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+39
85.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Smoot for 39 yds to the SHSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
86.7%
JOINTER, JR., James rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the SHS36 (WILLIAMS, Trevor). PENALTY LIB Holding on HENDERSON, Austin enforced 10 yards from the SHS37 to the SHS47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+5
86.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the SHSU 42Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+3
86.3%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the SHSU 39Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 12
OPP 39
-5
86.1%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Issiah Nixon for a loss of 5 yards to the SHSU 44Similar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 17
OPP 44
0
83.8%
Max Morgan punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:1515% → 14%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
85.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 2 yds to the SHSU 22Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
85.6%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-1
85.9%
Keegan Shoemaker sacked by CJ Bazile Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 23Similar
Q2 3:36
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
85.9%
Jadon Cardell punt for 39 yds, downed at the LIB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:1585% → 93%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
84.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
84.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the LIB 44Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
84.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 5 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
92.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 51 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 10INT
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:099% → 10%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
90.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 41 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
89.4%
Noah Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 35Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
89.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
90.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0492% → 90%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.3%
Kaidon Salter run for no gain to the LIB 20Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
92.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the LIB 21Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+4
90.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the LIB 25Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Max Morgan punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
91.7%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SHOEMAKER, Keegan at SHS30 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:5311% → 12%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
88.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
87.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+5
88.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 5 yds to the LIB 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
88.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
88.6%
Jadon Cardell punt for 34 ydsSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
88.3%
SALTER, Kaidon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BEDGOOD, Aaron broken up by ESCOBAR, Elias at the SHS45. PENALTY LIB Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MITCHELL, Chase enforced 5 yards from the LIB11 to the LIB6 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:5888% → 88%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+10
88.0%
James Jointer Jr. run for 10 yds to the LIB 16Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+4
88.3%
Aaron Bedgood run for 4 yds to the LIB 20Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+6
87.9%
James Jointer Jr. run for 6 yds to the LIB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
88.4%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
88.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the LIB 32Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
88.2%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
87.9%
Max Morgan punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Emon Allen at the SHSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2012% → 11%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
88.0%
Landan Brown run for 2 yds to the SHSU 22Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
88.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 6 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
88.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
88.7%
Jadon Cardell punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Brylan Green at the LIB 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2590% → 89%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
90.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the LIB 30Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+3
89.9%
Aaron Bedgood run for 3 yds to the LIB 33Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
89.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
89.2%
Max Morgan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Emon Allen at the SHSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:4813% → 27%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
86.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 17 yds to the SHSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
85.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+29
86.1%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 29 yds to the LIB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
84.3%
Keegan Shoemaker run for no gain to the LIB 22Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
84.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Landan Brown for 2 yds to the LIB 20Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
73.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 20 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:2173% → 70%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
72.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 10 yds to the LIB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
73.5%
Aaron Bedgood run for 18 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+41
75.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 41 yds to the SHSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
76.1%
James Jointer Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 7Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-9
76.1%
Aaron Bedgood run for a loss of 9 yards to the SHSU 16Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
-1
73.9%
James Jointer Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 17Similar
Q3 1:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+35
69.6%
Nick Brown 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:2519% → 21%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
80.8%
Landan Brown run for 1 yd to the SHSU 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
80.8%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 8 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
80.2%
run for 2 yds to the SHSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
79.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
80.4%
Tobias Weaver run for no gain to the SHSU 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+9
81.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 9 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
79.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brylan Green at the LIB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 5:2569% → 78%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
69.3%
James Jointer Jr. run for 2 yds to the LIB 16Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
69.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
67.7%
SALTER, Kaidon scrambles to the right for a gain of 10 yards to the LIB26 (ADKINS, Donovan), out of bounds. PENALTY LIB Holding on GRAY, Xavior enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the LIB16 to the LIB9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 15
OWN 9
+15
68.1%
SALTER, Kaidon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for AUSTIN, Kylen thrown to the SHS40. PENALTY SHS Pass Interference on FISHER, David enforced 15 yards to the LIB24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
69.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 1 yd to the LIB 25Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+34
72.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 34 yds to the SHSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
76.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the SHSU 35Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+1
77.2%
Aaron Bedgood run for 1 yd to the SHSU 34Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+5
75.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the SHSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
77.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the SHSU 26Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
77.3%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+4
75.8%
Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the SHSU 22Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
78.0%
Nick Brown 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5618% → 14%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
82.2%
Tobias Weaver run for 3 yds to the SHSU 25Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
81.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:22
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
86.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:4679% → 82%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+32
78.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 32 yds to the SHSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
82.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-2
82.4%
Quinton Cooley run for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 30Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-5
84.6%
Liberty Penalty, Delay Of Game (Kaidon Salter) to the SHSU 35Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 11
OPP 35
-8
83.9%
Kaidon Salter sacked by Chris Scott for a loss of 8 yards to the SHSU 43Similar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 19
OPP 43
0
81.7%
Max Morgan punt for 42 yds, downed at the SHSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 23DOWNS
18 plays · 96 yds · 3:2915% → 17%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+21
84.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 21 yds to the SHSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
84.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 15 yds to the SHSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
82.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 6 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+11
80.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 11 yds Noah Smith fumbled, recovered by SHSU Graceson Jackson-Smith for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
79.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 10 yds to the LIB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
78.7%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 1 yd to the LIB 35Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+5
78.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 5 yds to the LIB 30Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+15
80.7%
SHOEMAKER, Keegan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROCKWELL, Jay thrown to the LIB13. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on SINGLETON, Kobe enforced 15 yards to the LIB15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
75.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Tobias Weaver for 4 yds to the LIB 11Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+4
74.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jax Sherrard for 4 yds to the LIB 7Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 2
OPP 7
0
78.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+4
82.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 4 yds to the LIB 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
74.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
74.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
79.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
82.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
94.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at LIB2 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:00
[NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at LIB2 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
+12
TD · Q3 4:36
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 20 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-11.3
TD · Q2 2:21
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 51 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com