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WKU

Western Kentucky 35 at Louisiana Tech 28

LT
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2023 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:02 · Tom Ellard punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Home team on offense−20.8Score differential−8.9Pregame prior−8.2Garbage-time factor−3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:17: Markese Stepp run for 56 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +4.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:47: Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 48 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +7.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:41: Jack Turner pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 19 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +7.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:13: Jack Turner run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +11.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:09: Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +25.8 pts (now 30%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 10 of 12WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:20LT 4th & 4 at LT 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:13LT 4th & 1 at WKU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.8%−0.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:39WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:40LT 4th & 7 at LT 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00LT 4th & 2 at LT 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:38LT 4th & 8 at LT 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:29LT 4th & 10 at LT 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:02WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:56LT 4th & 13 at LT 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:51WKU 4th & 6 at LT 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−0.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    87.3%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:58LT 4th & 4 at LT 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:58WKU 4th & 13 at WKU 42, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:41LT 4th & 5 at WKU 19, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:14WKU 4th & 2 at LT 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.9%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:37WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 34, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00LT 4th & 1 at LT 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.2%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:05LT 4th & 29 at LT 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−2.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:53WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 30, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:28LT 4th & 4 at WKU 7, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%−1.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    8.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−4.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:01WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:06WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:35LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:03WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:17WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:23WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:47WKU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:20WKU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:41LT Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:13LT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:09LT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3063% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
37.3%
Elijah Young run for 1 yd to the WKU 26Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
37.5%
Austin Reed pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:4038% → 39%
Q1 14:15
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+14
37.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 14 yds to the WKU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
37.7%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the WKU 25Similar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
37.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the WKU 39Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
37.7%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
39.4%
Tyre Shelton run for 25 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3261% → 62%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
39.0%
Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the WKU 30Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+70
38.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 70 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:5038% → 40%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.4%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
38.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 16 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
38.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 2 yds to the LT 43Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-14
38.8%
Jack Turner sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the LT 29Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 22
OWN 29
+18
38.5%
Jack Turner pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 18 yds to the LT 47Similar
Q1 10:20
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+15
39.0%
Jack Turner pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 15 yds to the WKU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
40.0%
Charvis Thornton run for 3 yds to the WKU 35Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+2
40.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the WKU 33Similar
Q1 8:01
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+4
40.4%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
40.3%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3160% → 59%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
40.2%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 33Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
40.1%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
40.4%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
40.7%
Tom Ellard punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5241% → 40%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
40.5%
Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the LT 33Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
40.7%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
40.3%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:40
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
40.0%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:2360% → 64%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
40.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 24 yds to the WKU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
35.7%
Markese Stepp run for 56 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:3135% → 35%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
35.4%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the LT 19Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+4
35.4%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the LT 23Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 1
OWN 23
0
35.0%
Jack Turner pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:1865% → 69%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
34.9%
L.T. Sanders run for 9 yds to the LT 7Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+6
34.9%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 6 yds to the LT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.7%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 14 yds · 4:4529% → 26%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
29.2%
Jack Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 24Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
28.7%
Charvis Thornton run for 7 yds to the LT 31Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-10
28.9%
TURNER, Jack pass short to the right complete for 10 yards to WILLIAMS, Dakota caught at the LAT36 and advanced to the LAT41, out of bounds. PENALTY LAT Holding on ROSSELL, Biron enforced 10 yards from the LAT31 to the LAT21 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:02
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+12
28.1%
Jack Turner run for 12 yds to the LT 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+4
27.6%
Jack Turner run for 4 yds to the LT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
28.0%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LT 34Similar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 13
OWN 34
0
26.9%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+6
26.7%
Charvis Thornton run for 6 yds to the LT 40Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-1
26.6%
Tyre Shelton run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 39Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
26.0%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 47 yds, downed at the WKU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 2:3475% → 84%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
25.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the WKU 17Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
24.3%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+21
24.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 21 yds to the WKU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
23.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 10 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
23.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 4 yds to the LT 48Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+48
16.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 48 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1818% → 17%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.7%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
17.4%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
17.3%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
17.2%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2184% → 84%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
15.6%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the WKU 28Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
15.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 5 yds to the WKU 33Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
15.8%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
15.9%
Tom Ellard punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:5518% → 17%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
17.5%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 12 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
17.1%
Jack Turner run for no gain to the WKU 48Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
15.9%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-5
15.6%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the LT 47Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+2
14.8%
Jack Turner run for 2 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
17.0%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD
17 plays · 88 yds · 5:2687% → 95%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
13.2%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 6 yds to the WKU 18Similar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
12.9%
L.T. Sanders run for 1 yd to the WKU 36Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+17
13.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 17 yds to the WKU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
11.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 3 yds to the WKU 39Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+16
12.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 16 yds to the LT 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
11.5%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
11.5%
L.T. Sanders run for 4 yds to the LT 41 L.T. Sanders fumbled, recovered by WKU River HelmsSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
11.8%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+7
10.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 7 yds to the LT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
9.3%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the LT 31Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
8.8%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+16
8.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 16 yds to the LT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
7.9%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the LT 14Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-15
7.4%
Western Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Elijah Young) to the LT 29Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 24
OPP 29
+29
4.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 29 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:143% → 5%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
2.7%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 21 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
2.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 5 yds to the WKU 36Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+53
2.6%
Buck Buchanan 53 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
4.9%
TURNER, Jack pass short to the left complete for 4 yards to RIVERA, Ryan caught at the LAT27 and advanced to the LAT29, out of bounds. PENALTY LAT Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WHITE, Dakota enforced 5 yards from the LAT25 to the LAT20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:025% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
4.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 8 yds to the LT 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
4.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 5 yds to the LT 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
4.6%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tyre Shelton for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 31Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
4.2%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 45 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:0095% → 96%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
4.7%
Elijah Young run for 6 yds to the WKU 30Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
4.7%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
4.5%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+15
4.6%
(12:14) ELLARD, Tom punt 40 yards to the LAT30, fair catch by HARRIS, Smoke. PENALTY LAT Personal Foul on DURU, Koby enforced 15 yards from the WKU30 to the WKU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
4.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-3
4.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to L.T. Sanders for a loss of 3 yards to the WKU 42Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
4.1%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:58
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
4.1%
Tom Ellard punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:174% → 11%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
3.7%
Jack Turner pass complete to Ryan Rivera for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
50
+8
3.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Ryan Rivera for 8 yds to the WKU 42Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+18
4.0%
Jack Turner pass complete to Ryan Rivera for 18 yds to the WKU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
3.9%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
3.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 5 yds to the WKU 19Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
3.5%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:41
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+19
11.3%
Jack Turner pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 19 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:2793% → 95%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.0%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Michael Richard) to the WKU 30Similar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+2
7.0%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the WKU 32Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
7.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 13 yds to the WKU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
5.8%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the WKU 45Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
5.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 5
50
+3
4.6%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the LT 47Similar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+1
4.9%
Malachi Corley run for 1 yd to the LT 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:587% → 18%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
7.1%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 18 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+35
7.0%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 35 yds to the WKU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
10.0%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the WKU 1Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.6%
Jack Turner run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3687% → 87%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
13.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the WKU 28Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
12.8%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
13.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 6 yds to the WKU 34Similar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
12.9%
Tom Ellard punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 4:3214% → 12%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
13.8%
Cyrus Allen run for a loss of 5 yards to the LT 21 Cyrus Allen fumbled, recovered by LT Jack TurnerSimilar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+13
13.5%
Tyre Shelton run for 13 yds to the LT 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
13.8%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the LT 35Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+15
13.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
50
-15
14.5%
run for a loss of 15 yards to the LT 35Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 25
OWN 35
-7
12.4%
Jack Turner sacked by Kylan Guidry for a loss of 7 yards to the LT 28Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 32
OWN 28
+3
11.7%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 3 yds to the LT 31Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 29
OWN 31
0
11.5%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 45 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1293% → 94%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
7.1%
Elijah Young run for 6 yds to the WKU 30Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
6.4%
Elijah Young run for no gain to the WKU 30Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
6.4%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
6.5%
Tom Ellard punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25DOWNS
14 plays · 44 yds · 4:0811% → 6%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
10.5%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 3 yds to the WKU 48Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+7
10.4%
Jack Turner run for 7 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
10.5%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
10.4%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+11
8.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 11 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
10.1%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WKU 35Similar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+7
9.6%
Jack Turner run for 7 yds to the WKU 28Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-3
8.8%
Tyre Shelton run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKU 31Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+18
6.9%
Jack Turner pass complete to Tru Edwards for 18 yds to the WKU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
7.6%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
6.8%
Charvis Thornton run for 6 yds to the WKU 7Similar
Q4 6:34
3RD & 4
OPP 7
0
6.4%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 4
OPP 7
0
6.2%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2197% → 97%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
3.4%
Markese Stepp run for 4 yds to the WKU 11Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+2
3.4%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the WKU 13Similar
Q4 5:05
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
3.4%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 4
OWN 13
0
3.2%
Tom Ellard punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:435% → 30%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
4.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 12 yds to the WKU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
4.0%
Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the WKU 32Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
4.2%
Jack Turner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+16
3.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for 16 yds to the WKU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
4.0%
(03:24) TURNER, Jack pass to the right incomplete intended for THORNTON, Charvis broken up by COOPER, Niko at the WKU23. PENALTY WKU Personal Foul on GUIDRY, Kylan enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the WKU16 to the WKU8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
4.2%
Jack Turner run for 7 yds to the WKU 1Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.0%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:0389% → 89%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.3%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 28Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
10.1%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the WKU 30Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
10.0%
Austin Reed run for 4 yds to the WKU 34Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
10.5%
Western Kentucky Penalty, False Start (River Helms) to the WKU 29Similar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
11.4%
Tom Ellard punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LT 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 29INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1216% → 15%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
15.8%
Jack Turner pass complete to Smoke Harris for no gain to the LT 38Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
15.2%
Jack Turner pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:4096% → 96%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
4.2%
(01:40) [NH] Kneel down by REED, Austin at LAT48 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
4.2%
(01:00) [NH] Kneel down by REED, Austin at LAT49 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
4.4%
[NH] Kneel down by REED, Austin at LAT49 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:09
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+25.8
TD · Q3 3:13
Jack Turner run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+11
TD · Q3 8:41
Jack Turner pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 19 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com