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JXST

Jacksonville State 45 at Middle Tennessee 30

MTSU
2023 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2023 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:12 · Miles Tillman punt for 57 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense+11.3Pregame prior+4.8Score differential+1.7Garbage-time factor+5.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:54: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 19 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin PAT MISSED) — MTSU win probability +9.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:31: Zion Webb pass complete to Sean Brown for 10 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK) — JXST win probability +8.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:21: Zion Webb 1 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick) — JXST win probability +17.0 pts (now 42%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:14: Perry Carter 63 Yd pass from Zion Webb (Alen Karajic Kick) — JXST win probability +29.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:52: J'Wan Evans 1 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick) — JXST win probability +9.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11JXST made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:31MTSU 4th & 25 at MTSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:19MTSU 4th & 12 at MTSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:54JXST 4th & 13 at MTSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:28MTSU 4th & 9 at JXST 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:17JXST 4th & 6 at JXST 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:43MTSU 4th & 8 at JXST 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:15JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:15MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 47, up 3
    Close callPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:27MTSU 4th & 1 at JXST 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    53.3%−2.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:34JXST 4th & 6 at JXST 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:12JXST 4th & 6 at MTSU 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:07JXST 4th & 4 at JXST 31, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:10MTSU 4th & 13 at midfield, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:22JXST 4th & 4 at JXST 24, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−1.0
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 14:45JXST 4th & 10 at JXST 25, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:12MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 43, up 9
    Close callPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:46JXST 4th & 3 at JXST 27, down 9
    Close callPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:56MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 27, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−2.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  19. Q3 1:03JXST 4th & 5 at MTSU 25, down 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−10.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:21MTSU 4th & 7 at midfield, down 1
    Close callPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:12MTSU 4th & 5 at JXST 14, down 15
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    5.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−3.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:55JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 32, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:03JXST 4th & 3 at MTSU 24, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    96.4%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4JXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 11:21JXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:49MTSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:12MTSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:54MTSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:31JXST Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:21JXST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:14JXST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−1.0
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:52JXST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:42JXST Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:29MTSU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:2363% → 62%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
62.5%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 21Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-11
62.5%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Chris Hardie for a loss of 11 yards to the MTSU 10Similar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
62.4%
Trey Turk punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2INT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:3338% → 38%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
62.3%
Malik Jackson run for 6 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
62.2%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the MTSU 30Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+9
62.2%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Perry Carter for 9 yds to the MTSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
62.1%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds to the MTSU 18Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+2
62.0%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 2 yds to the MTSU 16Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
62.1%
Logan Smothers pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 11:1862% → 62%
Q1 11:31
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
62.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the MTSU 23Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
62.2%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Kolbi Fuqua for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 18Similar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
62.0%
Miles Tillman punt for 39 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
61.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MTSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:1738% → 38%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
61.9%
Jacksonville State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Logan Smothers) to the JVST 35Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 22
OWN 35
+4
62.3%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Anwar Lewis for 4 yds to the JVST 39Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 18
OWN 39
+19
62.4%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Anwar Lewis for 19 yds to the MTSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
61.7%
Logan Smothers run for 4 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-1
61.6%
Logan Smothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 39Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 7
OPP 39
-6
61.6%
Logan Smothers sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MTSU 45Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
62.3%
Jack Dawson punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:2262% → 62%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+42
62.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 42 yds to the JVST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
62.9%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the JVST 46Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+3
63.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 3 yds to the JVST 43Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-10
62.8%
(06:15) CREDLE, Jaiden rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the JSU39 (HARRIS, Jeremiah;HALE, Laletia), clock 06:10. PENALTY MTS Holding on PORCHER, Sterling enforced 10 yards from the JSU43 to the MTS47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+6
61.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 6 yds to the JVST 47Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
61.9%
Trey Turk punt for 46 yds, downed at the JVST 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0138% → 37%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
62.0%
Malik Jackson run for 4 yds to the JVST 5Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 6
OWN 5
0
62.1%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the JVST 5Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
62.4%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
62.7%
Jack Dawson punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:2563% → 63%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
50
0
63.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
50
+5
62.9%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the JVST 45Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+19
63.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 19 yds to the JVST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
63.5%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the JVST 26Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-1
63.6%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Kolbi Fuqua for a loss of 1 yard to the JVST 27Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 11
OPP 27
+8
63.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 8 yds to the JVST 19Similar
Q1 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
63.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the JVST 8Similar
Q1 0:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
63.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
63.2%
Zeke Rankin 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:2837% → 37%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.2%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
63.3%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.8%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Sean Brown for 15 yds to the JVST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
62.3%
Malik Jackson run for 4 yds to the JVST 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
62.0%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+1
62.3%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the JVST 45Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
63.4%
Logan Smothers punt for 19 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5864% → 63%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
64.0%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
64.2%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the MTSU 45Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+2
63.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ Riles for 2 yds to the MTSU 47Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
62.6%
Miles Tillman punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sterling Galban at the JVST 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 0:4437% → 45%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
63.5%
Malik Jackson run for 23 yds to the JVST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+61
62.5%
Zion Webb run for 61 yds to the MTSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.4%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2858% → 67%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.1%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the MTSU 25Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
57.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jeremy Tate Jr. for 8 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
58.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 15 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
59.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the MTSU 48Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
59.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 8
50
+7
58.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Kellen Stewart for 7 yds to the JVST 43Similar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+42
58.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ Riles for 42 yds to the JVST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.6%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1236% → 35%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.6%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the JVST 25Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
63.7%
Zion Webb run for 8 yds to the JVST 33Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-4
63.2%
Zion Webb run for a loss of 4 yards to the JVST 29Similar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
65.1%
Jack Dawson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
71.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 71 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:5128% → 28%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
71.9%
Zion Webb pass complete to Sean Brown for 31 yds to the MTSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
70.1%
Zion Webb pass complete to Perry Carter for 5 yds to the MTSU 39Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-1
69.8%
Zion Webb pass complete to Perry Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 40Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
70.6%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 6
OPP 40
-12
71.6%
Zion Webb sacked by Richard Kinley for a loss of 12 yards to the JVST 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:1274% → 84%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
73.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+10
73.9%
Jaiden Credle run for 10 yds to the JVST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
74.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 19 yds to the JVST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
83.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 19 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3820% → 20%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
79.8%
Zion Webb pass complete to Michael Pettway for 5 yds to the JVST 30Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
79.3%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the JVST 31Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
79.8%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
80.4%
Jack Dawson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 1:5084% → 83%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
83.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Kalani Norris for 18 yds to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
84.4%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Kalani Norris) to the MTSU 40Similar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+3
84.3%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
84.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+10
84.4%
(01:41) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SHERMAN, Javonte thrown to the JSU40, clock 01:36. PENALTY JSU Holding on HARRIS, Jeremiah enforced 10 yards from the MTS43 to the JSU47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
85.3%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Curley Young Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 13
50
0
83.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 13
50
0
83.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 13
50
0
82.5%
Trey Turk punt for 32 yds, downed at the JVST 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3919% → 19%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
80.8%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
81.1%
Zion Webb pass complete to Malik Jackson for 6 yds to the JVST 24Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
80.9%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
81.4%
Jack Dawson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
82.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 8 yds to the MTSU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1418% → 17%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.0%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.2%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
82.5%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:45
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
82.8%
Jack Dawson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 1:1684% → 84%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
84.2%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Jaylen Swain for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 30Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+4
84.4%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
83.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:3419% → 28%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
81.0%
Malik Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 41Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+23
81.9%
Zion Webb pass complete to Sean Brown for 23 yds to the MTSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
80.1%
Malik Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 20Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
81.3%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
80.7%
Reggion Bennett run for no gain to the MTSU 10Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
71.8%
Zion Webb pass complete to Sean Brown for 10 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:1877% → 78%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
76.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 7 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
77.7%
Jaiden Credle run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 30Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
76.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 5 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
78.2%
(10:07) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the right complete for 9 yards to METCALF, Elijah caught at the MTS44 and advanced to the MTS44 (TEAM), out of bounds, clock 10:01. PENALTY MTS Holding on GRAHAM, Jacqui enforced 10 yards from the MTS35 to the MTS25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+9
77.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 9 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+9
78.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 9 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
78.9%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the MTSU 43Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
78.2%
Miles Tillman punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1821% → 20%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
78.6%
Zion Webb pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 7 yds to the JVST 27Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
77.8%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the JVST 27Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
79.2%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
80.5%
Jack Dawson punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 25TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:1925% → 42%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+24
75.2%
Zion Webb pass complete to Sean Brown for 24 yds to the MTSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
75.3%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the MTSU 1Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.4%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the MTSU 1Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.4%
Zion Webb 1 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2064% → 61%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
64.3%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 23Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
63.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
61.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 4 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
61.2%
Trey Turk punt for 38 yds, downed at the JVST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 27FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:5239% → 49%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
61.4%
Zion Webb run for 10 yds to the JVST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
59.1%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the JVST 46Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+13
59.1%
Zion Webb pass complete to Sterling Galban for 13 yds to the MTSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
58.0%
Zion Webb run for 9 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+2
56.1%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the MTSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
56.4%
Malik Jackson run for 6 yds to the MTSU 24Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 4
OPP 24
-1
55.9%
Malik Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 25Similar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
57.6%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
51.2%
Alen Karajic 43 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:4153% → 51%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 24Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
52.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 2 yds to the MTSU 26Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+21
50.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 21 yds to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
56.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 9 yds to the JVST 44Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-1
57.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for a loss of 1 yard to the JVST 45Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-5
56.9%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Chris Hardie for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 7
50
0
50.5%
Miles Tillman punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 29TD
3 plays · 92 yds · 1:0750% → 79%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
50.5%
Anwar Lewis run for no gain to the JVST 8Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+29
50.8%
Zion Webb run for 29 yds to the JVST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
20.9%
Perry Carter 63 Yd pass from Zion Webb (Alen Karajic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 30INT
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:4425% → 31%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+38
25.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 38 yds to the JVST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
29.9%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the JVST 38Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
29.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 11
OPP 38
+19
26.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 19 yds to the JVST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
30.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 31TD
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1784% → 94%
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
16.3%
Anwar Lewis run for 7 yds to the MTSU 10Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
15.8%
Anwar Lewis run for 2 yds to the MTSU 8Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+4
16.3%
Malik Jackson run for 4 yds to the MTSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
15.6%
Zion Webb run for 2 yds to the MTSU 2Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
15.0%
J'Wan Evans run for 1 yd to the MTSU 1Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.1%
J'Wan Evans 1 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 32DOWNS
12 plays · 48 yds · 3:348% → 5%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
7.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 15 yds to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
8.1%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
8.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 4 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
8.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 4 yds to the JVST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
7.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 3 yds to the JVST 45Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+16
7.4%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 16 yds to the JVST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
8.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+10
7.9%
(05:20) VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the right incomplete intended for ENGLAND-CHISOLM, DJ thrown to the JSU18; QB hurried by AL-AMIN, Jibreel, clock 05:13. PENALTY JSU Holding on CARTER, Derek enforced 10 yards from the JSU29 to the JSU19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
7.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 4 yds to the JVST 15Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+1
5.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the JVST 14Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
5.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:12
4TH & 5
OPP 14
-13
5.0%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Kamari Stephens for a loss of 13 yards to the JVST 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 33PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:1196% → 97%
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
3.8%
Anwar Lewis run for 2 yds to the JVST 29Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 8
OWN 29
-3
3.5%
Zion Webb run for a loss of 3 yards to the JVST 26Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+6
3.5%
Anwar Lewis run for 6 yds to the JVST 32Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
3.2%
Jack Dawson punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 34FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+26
0.4%
Curley Young Jr. 26 Yd Fumble Return (Alen Karajic Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 35TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
1.2%
Terry Wilkins 75 Yd Run (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 36MISSED FG
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:2498% → 99%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
2.4%
Anwar Lewis run for 6 yds to the MTSU 25Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 4
OPP 25
0
2.3%
Anwar Lewis run for no gain to the MTSU 25Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+1
1.8%
J'Wan Evans run for 1 yd to the MTSU 24Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
1.5%
Alen Karajic 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 37END OF GAME
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:021% → 1%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+37
0.9%
DJ Riles pass complete to Holden Willis for 37 yds to the JVST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
1.0%
RILES, DJ pass up the middle complete for 9 yards to OLSON, Justin caught at the JSU30 and advanced to the JSU30 (DRAKE, Quae;HARRIS, Jeremiah), clock 00:32. PENALTY MTS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on GUEVARA, Mateo enforced 5 yards from the JSU39 to the JSU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
0.9%
DJ Riles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+7
0.9%
DJ Riles run for 7 yds to the JVST 37Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+9
0.9%
DJ Riles pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 9 yds to the JVST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:14
Perry Carter 63 Yd pass from Zion Webb (Alen Karajic Kick)
-29.9
TD · Q3 5:21
Zion Webb 1 Yd Run (Alen Karajic Kick)
-17
TD · Q2 3:54
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 19 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin PAT MISSED)
+9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com