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MIZ

Missouri 38 at Vanderbilt 21

VAN
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadMIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreMIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:22 · Matthew Hayball punt for 41 yds, downed at the MIZ 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Pregame prior−22.1Home team on offense−2.5Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:55: Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +5.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:37: Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 18 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +8.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:59: Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 31 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK) — VAN win probability +12.7 pts (now 20%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:10: Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +8.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:36: Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 45 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK) — VAN win probability +10.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:40VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:57MIZ 4th & 6 at VAN 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:14VAN 4th & 6 at VAN 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:25MIZ 4th & 9 at VAN 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:22VAN 4th & 16 at VAN 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−2.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:12VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:36VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:54MIZ 4th & 3 at VAN 44, up 17
    Close callPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%−2.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:57VAN 4th & 3 at MIZ 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    10.6%−2.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:32MIZ 4th & 4 at VAN 40, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:03MIZ 4th & 2 at MIZ 45, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:42VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 32, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:48VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 20, down 17
    Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 3:46VAN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:27MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:55MIZ Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:37MIZ Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:59VAN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:10MIZ Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:36VAN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:23MIZ Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:5417% → 17%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.5%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the VAN 27Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
16.7%
Patrick Smith run for 4 yds to the VAN 31Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
17.0%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 8 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
17.2%
Jayden McGowan run for 6 yds to the VAN 45Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
17.5%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Gamarion CarterSimilar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-5
17.4%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Gunnar Hansen) to the VAN 40Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
17.3%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Justin BallSimilar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
17.3%
Matthew Hayball punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIZ 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 5:2382% → 80%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
17.6%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 29Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
17.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 28Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+27
18.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 27 yds to the VAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
18.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 6 yds to the VAN 39Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+8
18.0%
Cody Schrader run for 8 yds to the VAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
18.3%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the VAN 30Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+12
18.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 12 yds to the VAN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
18.7%
Nathaniel Peat run for 3 yds to the VAN 15Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 7
OPP 15
-5
18.7%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Connor Tollison) to the VAN 20Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
18.9%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Mookie CooperSimilar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+12
19.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 12 yds to the VAN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
19.1%
Brady Cook run for 3 yds to the VAN 5Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
19.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 6Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
19.6%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Theo Wease Jr.Similar
Q1 6:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
19.6%
Harrison Mevis 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:3820% → 24%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
20.0%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+15
20.1%
Seals, Ken pass incomplete to Sherrill, Junior, PENALTY MISSOURI pass interference (Charleston, Joseph) 15 yards to the VANDERBILT43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VANDERBILT.Similar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
20.5%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
20.4%
Jayden McGowan run for 10 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
21.1%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
21.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 15 yds to the MIZ 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
21.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 22 yds to the MIZ 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
22.2%
Chase Gillespie run for 4 yds to the MIZ 6Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
24.3%
Ken Seals run for 6 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 6:0476% → 78%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
23.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 9 yds to the MIZ 24Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+3
23.8%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the MIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
24.0%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Theo Wease Jr.Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+12
24.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 12 yds to the MIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
23.8%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Cam'Ron Johnson) to the MIZ 34Similar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+2
24.8%
Brady Cook run for 2 yds to the MIZ 36Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+14
25.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
50
+2
24.4%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the VAN 48Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+9
24.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 9 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
25.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 23 yds to the VAN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
25.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 5 yds to the VAN 11Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+10
25.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 10 yds to the VAN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.1%
Cody Schrader 1 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)Similar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
21.8%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (EJ Ndoma-Ogar) to the VAN 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2224% → 24%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
24.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for no gain to the VAN 28Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
24.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Patrick Smith for 1 yd to the VAN 29Similar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
24.1%
Matthew Hayball punt for 45 yds, downed at the MIZ 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:4375% → 75%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
24.7%
Cook, Brady pass incomplete to Wease Jr., Theo, PENALTY VANDERBILT pass interference (Wright, De'Rickey) 15 yards to the MISSOURI41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSOURI.Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
23.8%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the MIZ 41Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
24.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 13 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
23.7%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Mookie CooperSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
23.9%
Cook, Brady pass complete to Wease Jr., Theo for 10 yards to the VANDERBILT36, PENALTY MISSOURI ineligible downfield on pass (Stephens, Tyler) 5 yards to the MISSOURI49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 15
OWN 49
-5
24.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Nathaniel Peat for a loss of 5 yards to the MIZ 44Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 20
OWN 44
+11
25.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 11 yds to the VAN 45Similar
Q2 7:25
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
25.2%
Luke Bauer punt for 41 yds, downed at the VAN 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:2825% → 26%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-3
25.3%
Patrick Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 1Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 13
OWN 1
0
25.3%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Gage Pitchford) to the VAN 1Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 13
OWN 1
+23
25.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 8 yds to the VAN 9 for a 1ST down Missouri Penalty, Roughing Passer (Kris Abrams-Draine) to the VAN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
26.3%
Ken Seals run for no gain to the VAN 24Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
26.6%
Patrick Smith run for 1 yd to the VAN 25Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 9
OWN 25
-5
26.0%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Bradley Ashmore) to the VAN 20Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 14
OWN 20
-2
26.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 18Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 16
OWN 18
0
26.0%
Matthew Hayball punt for 41 yds, downed at the MIZ 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 1:4975% → 82%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
25.5%
Nathaniel Peat run for 4 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+24
25.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 24 yds to the VAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
24.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the VAN 31Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+19
24.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 19 yds to the VAN 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
23.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 8 yds to the VAN 4Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 2
OPP 4
-5
23.7%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Marquis Johnson) to the VAN 9Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-3
23.7%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 12Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
18.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 12 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:3619% → 19%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 4 yds to the VAN 29Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
19.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 4 yds to the VAN 33Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
19.3%
Ken Seals run for 1 yd to the VAN 34Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
19.1%
Matthew Hayball punt for 44 yds, downed at the MIZ 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:0681% → 82%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
18.7%
Nathaniel Peat run for 19 yds to the MIZ 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
17.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for a loss of 3 yards Theo Wease Jr. fumbled, forced by De'Rickey Wright, recovered by VAN Darren Agu , return for 4 yds to the MIZ 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5881% → 90%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
19.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 26 yds to the VAN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
18.2%
Cody Schrader run for 9 yds to the VAN 40Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+3
18.0%
Brady Cook run for 3 yds to the VAN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
17.7%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+12
17.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 12 yds to the VAN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
17.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for no gain to the VAN 23Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
17.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for 5 yds to the VAN 18Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+18
9.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 18 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5712% → 11%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.7%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Junior SherrillSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
11.1%
Patrick Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 23Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
10.9%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Quincy Skinner Jr.Similar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+17
10.9%
Matthew Hayball punt for 59 yds , Luther Burden III returns for 17 yds to the MIZ 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:1190% → 90%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
10.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 14 yds to the MIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
9.6%
Nathaniel Peat run for 8 yds to the VAN 43Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-1
9.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 44Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
9.5%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Luther Burden IIISimilar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
10.2%
Luke Bauer punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14INT
10 plays · 60 yds · 5:1011% → 12%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
10.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 23Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
10.7%
Jayden McGowan run for 8 yds to the VAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
10.9%
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 30Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+5
10.4%
Ken Seals run for 5 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+17
10.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 17 yds to the MIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
11.6%
Walter Taylor run for no gain to the MIZ 48Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
11.5%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Kamrean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+7
11.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 7 yds to the MIZ 41Similar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+21
11.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 21 yds to the MIZ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
12.1%
Ken Seals pass intercepted, touchback. Kris Abrams-Draine return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:5193% → 94%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
7.1%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Luther Burden IIISimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
7.1%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the MIZ 25Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+11
7.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 11 yds to the MIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
6.5%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+14
6.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 14 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
6.0%
Cody Schrader run for 9 yds to the VAN 37Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 1
OPP 37
-3
5.3%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAN 40Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
5.5%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Mookie CooperSimilar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
5.7%
Brady Cook pass incomplete to Theo Wease Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:217% → 20%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+29
7.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 29 yds to the MIZ 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
19.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 31 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:2086% → 96%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
14.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 12 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
13.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 19 yds to the VAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
12.8%
Cook, Brady pass incomplete to Peat, Nathaniel, PENALTY MISSOURI holding (Johnson, Cam'Ron) 10 yards to the VANDERBILT44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
13.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for no gain to the VAN 44Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+44
4.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:145% → 15%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.0%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+27
4.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 27 yds to the MIZ 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
15.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 45 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2288% → 89%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
12.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 12 yds to the MIZ 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
11.2%
Brady Cook run for no gain to the MIZ 37Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
11.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 7 yds to the MIZ 44Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+1
10.7%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd to the MIZ 45Similar
Q4 7:03
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
10.9%
Luke Bauer punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VAN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1211% → 9%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
11.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 11 yds to the VAN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
11.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 6 yds to the VAN 32Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
10.5%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Justin BallSimilar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
9.7%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Justin BallSimilar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 4
OWN 32
-13
9.4%
Ken Seals sacked by Austin Firestone for a loss of 13 yards to the VAN 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 21TD
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:0292% → 98%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
7.8%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the VAN 19Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
7.8%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the VAN 17Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+17
2.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 17 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:043% → 2%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
2.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 2 yds to the VAN 17Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+3
2.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 3 yds to the VAN 20Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
2.6%
Ken Seals pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
2.4%
Matthew Hayball punt for 64 yds, downed at the MIZ 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3998% → 99%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
1.7%
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds to the MIZ 23Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 3
OWN 23
-6
1.3%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 27 Missouri Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIZ 17Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+6
1.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for 6 yds to the MIZ 23Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+2
1.3%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the MIZ 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:59
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 31 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)
+12.7
TD · Q4 9:36
Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 45 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)
+10.4
TD · Q4 11:10
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 44 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
-8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com