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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadWAG aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreWAG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:07 · Steven Krajewski run for no gain to the WAG 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:46: Christian Dremel 4 Yd pass from Gavin Wimsatt (Jai Patel Kick) — RUTG win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:02: Samuel Brown V run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:50: Gavin Wimsatt 5 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick) — RUTG win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:00: Gavin Wimsatt run for 7 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WAG made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 11:06WAG 4th & 16 at WAG 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q1 6:57RUTG 4th & 7 at WAG 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%64% to makePunt98.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 5:07WAG 4th & 15 at WAG 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q1 0:46RUTG 4th & 4 at WAG 4, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%40% to convertField goal98.1%−<0.193% to makePunt97.6%−0.5average punt
- Q2 13:52WAG 4th & 9 at RUTG 21, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call1.7%74% to makePunt1.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 10:10RUTG 4th & 1 at WAG 16, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.9%71% to convertField goal97.7%−0.281% to makePunt97.2%−0.7average punt
- Q2 5:07WAG 4th & 1 at WAG 27, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:23WAG 4th & 11 at RUTG 11, down 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.122% to convertField goalTheir call1.0%87% to makePunt0.6%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:00RUTG 4th & 14 at RUTG 21, up 21Close callWent for it · 99.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.4%−0.417% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.8%average punt
- Q3 11:12WAG 4th & 3 at WAG 41, down 28Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 8:07RUTG 4th & 3 at WAG 49, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 3:41RUTG 4th & 1 at WAG 4, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%65% to convertField goal99.7%−0.293% to makePunt99.2%−0.6average punt
- Q3 2:13WAG 4th & 8 at WAG 27, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 7:08WAG 4th & 2 at midfield, down 42Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 0:46RUTG Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:02RUTG Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:50RUTG Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:00RUTG Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:41RUTG Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:38RUTG Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:13RUTG Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAGDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 3:531% → 1%
Q1 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
99.3%
Zachary Palmer-Smith run for 14 yds to the WAG 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
99.3%
(13:42) PALMER-SMITH, Zachary rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the WAG48 (BAILEY, Wesley;ITON, Isaiah), clock 13:41. PENALTY Before the snap, WAG Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the WAG40 to the WAG35. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-4
99.3%
Steven Krajewski sacked by Aaron Lewis and Isaiah Iton for a loss of 4 yards to the WAG 31Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 12
OWN 38
-4
99.2%
Steven Krajewski sacked by Aaron Lewis and Mohamed Toure for a loss of 4 yards to the WAG 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2FG9 plays · 41 yds · 3:5099% → 99%
WAGDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q1 5:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
98.8%
Steven Krajewski sacked by Aaron Lewis for a loss of 7 yards to the WAG 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4TD10 plays · 51 yds · 4:0699% → 99%
Q1 4:49
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
98.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Jessie Ofurie for 7 yds to the WAG 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 5MISSED FG6 plays · 22 yds · 1:432% → 2%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
98.5%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Jaylen Bonelli for 6 yds to the RUTG 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+15
98.4%
KRAJEWSKI, Steven pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SHORTER, Trevor thrown to the RU5. PENALTY RU Pass Interference on MELTON, Max enforced 15 yards to the RU22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6TD11 plays · 79 yds · 4:3898% → 99%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+41
98.3%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to JaQuae Jackson for 41 yds to the WAG 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-5
98.1%
WIMSATT, Gavin pass short to the right complete for 13 yards to BOWMAN, Shawn caught at the WAG8 and advanced to the WAG0, TOUCHDOWN RU, score nullified by penalty, clock 09:23 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY RU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on FELTER, Bryan enforced 5 yards from the WAG13 to the WAG18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+17
98.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Christian Dremel for 17 yds to the WAG 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 7DOWNS6 plays · 21 yds · 3:451% → 2%
RUTGDrive 8TD6 plays · 27 yds · 0:5999% → 99%
Q2 3:38
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+12
98.7%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to JaQuae Jackson for 12 yds to the WAG 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 9FG11 plays · 13 yds · 1:101% → 1%
Q2 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
98.9%
Steven Krajewski pass complete to Mark Didio Jr. for 3 yds to the RUTG 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10END OF HALF5 plays · 10 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.2%
Gavin Wimsatt sacked by John Gioia for a loss of 7 yards to the RUTG 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11TD2 plays · 7 yds · 0:4699% → 100%
WAGDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 21 yds · 2:320% → 0%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.8%
Damien Mazil pass complete to Ian Umansky for 4 yds to the WAG 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13TD14 plays · 67 yds · 7:18100% → 100%
Q3 8:52
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+4
99.8%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to JaQuae Jackson for 4 yds to the WAG 49Similar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+7
99.8%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 7 yds to the WAG 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
99.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Ian Strong for 17 yds to the WAG 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:46
4TH & 5
OPP 8
0
99.9%
(03:46) WIMSATT, Gavin pass to the right incomplete intended for DREMEL, Christian thrown to the WAG0, clock 03:45. PENALTY WAG Offsides on GADSON, Nicholas enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the WAG8 to the WAG4 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q3 2:13
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Joshua Brown punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Rashad Rochelle at the RUTG 25Similar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
(02:02) WIMSATT, Gavin pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON, JaQuae thrown to the WAG35, clock 02:01. PENALTY WAG Pass Interference on RICCI, Zachary enforced 15 yards to the RU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15TD9 plays · 75 yds · 5:20100% → 100%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.9%
Samuel Brown V run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
99.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Christian Dremel for 6 yds to the WAG 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.9%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Shawn Bowman for 6 yds to the WAG 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 4:220% → 0%
Q4 7:08
4TH & 2
50
0
100.0%
Joshua Brown punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Rashad Rochelle at the RUTG 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17TD13 plays · 89 yds · 6:52100% → 100%
Q4 4:43
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+13
100.0%
Ajani Sheppard pass complete to Famah Toure for 13 yds to the WAG 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
100.0%
SHEPPARD, Ajani pass to the left complete for 10 yards to PATTERSON, Max caught at the WAG21 and advanced to the WAG21, out of bounds, clock 03:16. PENALTY RU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SUTTON, Reggie enforced 5 yards from the WAG31 to the WAG36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+10
100.0%
Ajani Sheppard pass complete to Dylan Braithwaite for 10 yds to the WAG 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 18END OF GAME1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:02
Samuel Brown V run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 2:50
Gavin Wimsatt 5 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)
+0.6
TD · Q3 14:00
Gavin Wimsatt run for 7 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
+0.6