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ILL

Illinois 19 at Purdue 44

PUR
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:33 · Hugh Robertson punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Home team on offense+0.6Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Blowout margin+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:52: Josh McCray run for 7 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +9.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:46: Dylan Downing run for 16 yds for a TD (Julio Macias KICK) — PUR win probability +8.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:59: Hudson Card pass complete to Garrett Miller for 28 yds for a TD (Julio Macias KICK) — PUR win probability +13.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:41: Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds for a TD (Julio Macias KICK) — PUR win probability +11.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:21: Hudson Card pass complete to Deion Burks for 10 yds for a TD (Julio Macias KICK) — PUR win probability +5.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ILL made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 14:55ILL 4th & 1 at PUR 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.4%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49ILL 4th & 1 at PUR 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:28PUR 4th & 6 at ILL 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    53.4%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:33ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:14ILL 4th & 19 at PUR 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−1.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:12ILL 4th & 26 at ILL 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−4.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:30PUR 4th & 8 at ILL 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00ILL 4th & 4 at PUR 35, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%−1.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:27ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:08PUR 4th & 23 at PUR 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−5.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:00ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−3.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:14ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 33, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.0%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:10ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 38, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:52PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 48, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:27ILL 4th & 10 at PUR 10, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−0.2
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:48PUR Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:52ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:46PUR Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:59PUR Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:41PUR Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:21PUR Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:27ILL Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:58PUR Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1FG
11 plays · 71 yds · 5:0648% → 48%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+39
52.1%
Luke Altmyer run for 39 yds to the PUR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
52.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 9 yds to the PUR 29Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+3
52.1%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the PUR 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
52.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
52.1%
Luke Altmyer run for 4 yds to the PUR 22Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+5
52.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 5 yds to the PUR 17Similar
Q1 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
52.1%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the PUR 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
52.1%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+7
52.1%
Josh McCray run for 7 yds to the PUR 8Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
52.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 2 yds to the PUR 6Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+24
52.2%
Caleb Griffin 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 9:4952% → 53%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.3%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 2 yds to the PUR 27Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
52.4%
Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the PUR 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
52.8%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
52.6%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 5 yds to the PUR 47Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+5
52.7%
Hudson Card pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 5 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
53.0%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
52.9%
Hudson Card pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 5 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+4
52.9%
Hudson Card pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 4 yds to the ILL 39Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
52.5%
Jack Ansell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 10Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-5
52.6%
Purdue Penalty, False Start (Mahamane Moussa) to the ILL 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:4048% → 45%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
52.4%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the ILL 12Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
54.7%
Malik Langham 0 Yd Fumble Return (Julio Macias PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1545% → 44%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.6%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
54.4%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
54.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
55.6%
Hugh Robertson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
54.6%
Devin Mockobee run for 6 yds to the PUR 40Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+8
55.3%
Devin Mockobee run for 8 yds to the PUR 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
55.4%
Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds to the ILL 49Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
55.6%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-9
55.2%
Hudson Card sacked by Keith Randolph Jr. and TeRah Edwards for a loss of 9 yards to the PUR 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3346% → 44%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
54.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 13 yds to the PUR 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-4
54.1%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Sanoussi Kane for a loss of 4 yards to the PUR 44Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 14
OPP 44
-2
54.7%
Luke Altmyer run for a loss of 2 yards to the PUR 46Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 16
OPP 46
-3
55.2%
ALTMYER, Luke pass deep to the right incomplete dropped by WILLIAMS, Isaiah thrown to the PUR27. PENALTY ILL Illegal Forward Pass on ALTMYER, Luke enforced 3 yards from the PUR46 to the PUR49, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
56.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the PUR 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7FUMBLE
11 plays · 73 yds · 5:1456% → 60%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
55.6%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 7 yds to the PUR 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+14
55.7%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 14 yds to the PUR 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
56.0%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 3 yds to the PUR 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+7
56.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Deion Burks for 7 yds to the PUR 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
56.5%
Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds to the PUR 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-1
56.9%
Hudson Card run for a loss of 1 yard to the PUR 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+18
55.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to Max Klare for 18 yds to the ILL 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
57.4%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 7 yds to the ILL 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
57.9%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for no gain to the ILL 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+8
57.3%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 8 yds to the ILL 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
59.9%
Devin Mockobee run for 7 yds to the ILL 20 Devin Mockobee fumbled, recovered by ILL Tahveon NicholsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:5443% → 53%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
57.1%
Josh McCray run for 7 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+17
56.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 17 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
55.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for no gain to the ILL 44Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+49
55.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 49 yds to the PUR 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
46.7%
Josh McCray run for 7 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:0150% → 62%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
50.1%
Hudson Card pass complete to Deion Burks for 6 yds to the PUR 33Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+3
51.3%
Hudson Card pass complete to Garrett Miller for 3 yds to the PUR 36Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+15
50.9%
CARD, Hudson pass deep to the left incomplete intended for KLARE, Max thrown to the ILL40. PENALTY ILL Pass Interference on HARPER, Nicario enforced 15 yards to the ILL49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
52.4%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
52.1%
Hudson Card run for 3 yds to the ILL 46Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+30
52.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 30 yds to the ILL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
53.7%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
62.1%
Dylan Downing run for 16 yds for a TD (Julio Macias KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 3:2842% → 38%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
58.5%
Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the ILL 15Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+10
58.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for 10 yds to the ILL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
58.3%
ALTMYER, Luke pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Casey broken up by ALLEN, Cam at the ILL42. PENALTY ILL Holding on MCCRAY, Josh enforced 10 yards from the ILL25 to the ILL15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-1
58.5%
Luke Altmyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 14Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 21
OWN 14
-6
58.7%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Sulaiman Kpaka for a loss of 6 yards to the ILL 8Similar
Q2 5:40
3RD & 27
OWN 8
+1
60.1%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the ILL 9Similar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
62.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the PUR 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:4262% → 66%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
61.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 16 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
61.7%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 7 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+7
62.5%
Devin Mockobee run for 7 yds to the ILL 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
63.0%
Hudson Card pass complete to Devin Mockobee for 6 yds to the ILL 19Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-4
63.0%
Hudson Card run for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 23Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
61.8%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
66.1%
Julio Macias 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:2334% → 41%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
66.2%
Kaden Feagin run for 19 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
64.1%
Luke Altmyer run for 15 yds to the PUR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
61.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
62.3%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+6
63.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 6 yds to the PUR 35Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+53
59.0%
Caleb Griffin 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0159% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.3%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 4 yds to the PUR 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
59.5%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 4 yds to the PUR 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
59.4%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 8 yds to the PUR 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
61.1%
Hudson Card pass complete to Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen for 5 yds to the PUR 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
61.8%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 2 yds to the PUR 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+10
60.9%
CARD, Hudson pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BURKS, Deion thrown to the ILL28. PENALTY ILL Holding on NICHOLSON, Tahveon enforced 10 yards from the PUR48 to the ILL42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
62.3%
Devin Mockobee run for 5 yds to the ILL 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
62.3%
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds to the ILL 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+5
61.8%
Hudson Card pass complete to Max Klare for 5 yds to the ILL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
62.9%
Devin Mockobee run for 2 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+5
62.9%
Hudson Card pass complete to Jayden Dixon-Veal for 5 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+28
76.6%
Hudson Card pass complete to Garrett Miller for 28 yds for a TD (Julio Macias KICK)Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-5
76.6%
Purdue Penalty, False Start (Marcus Mbow) to the ILL 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:2825% → 23%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
75.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 14 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
74.3%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the ILL 37Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
74.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
75.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
77.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:1976% → 76%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
76.1%
Hudson Card pass complete to Max Klare for 4 yds to the PUR 19Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
76.1%
Hudson Card pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-5
75.1%
Purdue Penalty, Illegal Snap on HARTWIG, Gus enforced (Gus Hartwig) to the PUR 14Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 11
OWN 14
-12
74.9%
Hudson Card sacked by James Kreutz for a loss of 12 yards to the PUR 2Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 23
OWN 2
0
75.6%
Jack Ansell punt for 53 yds, downed at the ILL 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0825% → 20%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
75.2%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 48Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-5
74.9%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ILL 43Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
76.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for no gain to the ILL 43Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 12
OWN 43
-2
77.2%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Yanni Karlaftis for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 41Similar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
80.0%
Hugh Robertson punt for 36 yds , returns for no gain to the PUR 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 1:1980% → 93%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
79.7%
Illinois Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Keith Randolph Jr.) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
50
+44
81.1%
Hudson Card pass complete to Deion Burks for 44 yds to the ILL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
81.4%
Hudson Card run for 3 yds to the ILL 3Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.6%
Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds for a TD (Julio Macias KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:229% → 8%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
91.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 6 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
90.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+3
91.1%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 33Similar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
91.7%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the ILL 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:5393% → 99%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
93.3%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 11 yds to the ILL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
93.3%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 5 yds to the ILL 17Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+7
93.3%
Dylan Downing run for 7 yds to the ILL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.5%
Hudson Card pass complete to Deion Burks for 10 yds for a TD (Julio Macias KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:113% → 2%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 13 yds to the ILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
97.4%
Luke Altmyer run for 4 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
97.4%
ALTMYER, Luke sacked for a loss of 2 yards at the ILL42 (SCOURTON, Nic;KPAKA, Sulaiman). PENALTY ILL Holding on WHITENACK, Hunter PUR Personal Foul on ANDERSON, Joe , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-5
97.4%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Kydran Jenkins for a loss of 5 yards to the ILL 37Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+1
97.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for 1 yd to the ILL 38Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
98.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:1899% → 99%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
98.8%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 4 yds to the PUR 24Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
98.8%
CARD, Hudson pass deep to the right incomplete intended for DIXON-VEAL, Jayden thrown to the ILL40. PENALTY ILL Offsides on RANDOLPH JR., Keith enforced 5 yards from the PUR24 to the PUR29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+10
98.8%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 10 yds to the PUR 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
98.9%
Dylan Downing run for 2 yds to the PUR 41Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
98.9%
Dylan Downing run for 5 yds to the PUR 46Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
98.9%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 2 yds to the PUR 48Similar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Jack Ansell punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 3:252% → 4%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
98.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 15 yds to the ILL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
98.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the ILL 37Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
98.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the ILL 41Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+15
98.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 15 yds to the PUR 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+38
98.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 38 yds to the PUR 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
98.1%
Luke Altmyer run for a loss of 4 yards to the PUR 10 Luke Altmyer fumbled, recovered by ILL Luke AltmyerSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
96.3%
Pat Bryant 10 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 4:2899% → 100%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
99.1%
Hudson Card pass complete to Deion Burks for 16 yds to the ILL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
99.1%
Devin Mockobee run for 5 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+7
99.1%
Devin Mockobee run for 7 yds to the ILL 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
99.1%
Devin Mockobee run for 7 yds to the ILL 9Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+2
99.1%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 2 yds to the ILL 7Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+6
99.0%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 6 yds to the ILL 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Julio Macias KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 54 yds · 1:551% → 1%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+19
99.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 19 yds to the ILL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.5%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
99.6%
Kaden Feagin run for 6 yds to the PUR 45Similar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
99.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Malik Elzy for 15 yds to the PUR 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.4%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+9
99.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Malik Elzy for 9 yds to the PUR 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
99.5%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
99.5%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:59
Hudson Card pass complete to Garrett Miller for 28 yds for a TD (Julio Macias KICK)
+13.6
TD · Q3 3:41
Devin Mockobee run for 3 yds for a TD (Julio Macias KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q2 7:52
Josh McCray run for 7 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)
-9.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com