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LSU

LSU 49 at Ole Miss 55

MISS
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+3.1MISS 64.8%Caden Davis 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 21 - HOME 31 · Q2 1:42
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:42 · Caden Davis 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior−7.2Home team on offense+9.8Garbage-time factor+3.8Score differential+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:41: Logan Diggs run for 12 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +18.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:13: Quinshon Judkins run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MISS win probability +23.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:34: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +26.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:06: Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +34.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 0:39: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds for a TD (Q. Judkins Run For Two-point Conversion) — MISS win probability +49.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:25MISS 4th & 4 at LSU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:00LSU 4th & 8 at LSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:43MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:42MISS 4th & 5 at LSU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−6.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:35MISS 4th & 13 at MISS 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−3.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:20MISS 4th & 12 at LSU 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:07MISS 4th & 2 at LSU 42, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−4.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−3.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:31LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 20, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−6.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:27MISS 4th & 5 at LSU 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−3.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    45.2%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:36LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 45, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−3.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:25MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:00MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:25LSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:12MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:46LSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:10MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 4:30LSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:58LSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:30LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 3:41LSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:13MISS Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    46.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    45.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:34LSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 5:06MISS Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−1.8
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 0:39MISS Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    79.7%−1.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:2637% → 40%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
36.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 8 yds to the MISS 33Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
36.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the MISS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
37.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+10
37.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 10 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
37.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
37.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+10
37.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 10 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
37.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
37.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+12
38.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 12 yds to the LSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
38.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the LSU 6Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
38.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 7Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
38.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 3 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
40.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 4 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:1260% → 59%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
40.0%
Logan Diggs run for 13 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
40.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
40.1%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
40.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
41.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0141% → 42%
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
41.3%
Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (-5 Yards) to the MISS 6Similar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 16
OWN 6
+4
41.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MISS 10Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+7
41.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 7 yds to the MISS 17Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
41.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
41.5%
Fraser Masin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:5158% → 57%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
41.7%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
41.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 1
50
+2
41.9%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
42.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the MISS 41Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+14
42.6%
John Emery Jr. run for 14 yds to the MISS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
42.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the MISS 25Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
42.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-4
43.2%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 29 Jayden Daniels fumbled, recovered by MISS Trey WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 0:2745% → 52%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+20
45.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 20 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
46.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 8 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+43
52.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV 43 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0549% → 55%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.8%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
51.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 7 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
51.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 23 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
50.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Logan Diggs for 14 yds to the MISS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
50.3%
Logan Diggs run for 7 yds to the MISS 20Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+20
44.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 20 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5848% → 56%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the MISS 31Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
48.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 31Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
47.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
56.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 63 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:1646% → 53%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
54.3%
John Emery Jr. run for 8 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+12
53.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to John Emery Jr. for 12 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
54.4%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Khari Coleman for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+55
56.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 55 yds to the MISS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
54.5%
Logan Diggs run for 9 yds to the MISS 1Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.0%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:0551% → 64%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
50.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the MISS 25Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
51.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 25Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+13
50.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 13 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
52.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
52.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
53.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 5 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+37
54.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 37 yds to the LSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
55.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+3
55.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the LSU 10Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-5
55.4%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LSU 15Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+15
64.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 15 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2837% → 44%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+39
62.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 39 yds to the MISS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
61.3%
John Emery Jr. run for 1 yd to the MISS 28Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+10
62.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 10 yds to the MISS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
62.8%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the MISS 13Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+2
63.4%
Logan Diggs run for 2 yds to the MISS 11Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
55.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 11 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:2959% → 65%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
59.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+56
58.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 56 yds to the LSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
62.1%
Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+2
62.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 18
OPP 23
+6
61.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+7
61.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the LSU 10Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
64.8%
Caden Davis 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:3635% → 52%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
65.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 15 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
64.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 17 yds to the MISS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
61.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 6 yds to the MISS 37Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+8
61.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the MISS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
48.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 29 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:1652% → 50%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-3
50.9%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 22Similar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
50.0%
Fraser Masin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:2647% → 50%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
53.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
53.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
50
0
50.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
50
+12
51.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 12 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
49.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+56
50.0%
Damian Ramos 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:1748% → 64%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+21
51.7%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the LSU 21 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
50.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Logan Diggs for 8 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+6
49.0%
Logan Diggs run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
50
+29
48.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 14 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the MISS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
47.1%
Logan Diggs run for 13 yds to the MISS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
47.4%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the MISS 7Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 0
OPP 7
-5
46.7%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MISS 12Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+11
48.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 11 yds to the MISS 1Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 2:5740% → 44%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 12 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
40.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 37Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
40.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+16
39.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 16 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
44.0%
LSU Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 5
OPP 42
+14
44.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 14 yds to the LSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
46.1%
Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 38Similar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+5
42.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+3
44.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 12
OPP 30
0
41.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+48
44.4%
Caden Davis 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3156% → 79%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
43.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 6 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
42.8%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+10
41.7%
Logan Diggs run for 10 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
41.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 2 yds to the MISS 49Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
40.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 5 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+10
40.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 10 yds to the MISS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
39.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 22 yds to the MISS 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
21.0%
Logan Diggs run for 12 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:2125% → 53%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
25.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 14 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
26.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 38Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 11
OWN 38
0
25.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+12
24.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
50
+1
28.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+5
28.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+2
28.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+2
26.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-9
28.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the LSU 39 Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 49Similar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 19
OPP 49
+27
26.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 27 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
30.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+11
29.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 11 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
53.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3560% → 57%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.1%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.4%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-6
40.7%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Ashanti Cistrunk for a loss of 6 yards to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+3
43.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 49 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 3 yds to the MISS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5846% → 47%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
45.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+16
45.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
50
+7
50.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 7 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-1
51.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-1
50.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
47.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:4564% → 85%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
36.0%
LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 35Similar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+2
39.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 2 yds to the LSU 37Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 18
OWN 37
+7
39.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+22
38.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 22 yds to the MISS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
12.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
14.7%
Ole Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:1818% → 54%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
17.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
17.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 34Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+35
15.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 35 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
21.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 4 yds to the LSU 27 Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the LSU 37Similar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 16
OPP 37
+10
18.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the LSU 27Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+15
19.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 15 yds to the LSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
19.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the LSU 6Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+5
19.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the LSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
19.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.2%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:1568% → 71%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
32.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 22 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
28.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
26.8%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the MISS 48Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-2
25.0%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Ashanti Cistrunk for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 7
50
-5
29.5%
LSU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 12
OWN 45
+43
29.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds, downed at the MISS 22 Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MISS 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 1:3941% → 96%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
40.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the MISS 19Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+6
41.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the MISS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
42.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 14 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
41.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+24
39.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 24 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
47.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 17 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
96.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds for a TD (Q. Judkins Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25END OF GAME
11 plays · 49 yds · 0:2913% → 19%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
86.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Chris Hilton Jr. for 42 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
77.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
77.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+17
81.4%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the MISS 31 for a 1ST down Ole Miss Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MISS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
75.0%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MISS 21Similar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 15
OPP 21
0
77.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 15
OPP 21
-5
81.4%
LSU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MISS 26Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 20
OPP 26
0
81.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:39
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds for a TD (Q. Judkins Run For Two-point Conversion)
+49.3
TD · Q4 5:06
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+34.6
TD · Q4 8:34
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
-26
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com