Try the model
PSU

Penn State 41 at Northwestern 13

NU
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Ryan Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:28 · Riley Thompson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Pregame prior−12.7Home team on offense−32.6Score differential−16.5Garbage-time factor−9.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:46: Ben Bryant run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) — NU win probability +10.7 pts (now 25%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:16: Trey Potts run for 13 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 84%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:40: Drew Allar run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:24: Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:07: Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:47NU 4th & 14 at PSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:48NU 4th & 13 at NU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:48PSU 4th & 6 at NU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    91.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:37PSU 4th & 3 at NU 3, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.9%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:00NU 4th & 12 at NU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:02PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:07PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:31NU 4th & 13 at NU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−1.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:54NU 4th & 14 at NU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:11NU 4th & 9 at NU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:40PSU 4th & 1 at NU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    71.0%−3.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−11.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:17NU 4th & 1 at NU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.6%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:03PSU 4th & 8 at NU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−4.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:03NU 4th & 4 at NU 31, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:01NU 4th & 10 at PSU 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−4.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:28PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:10NU 4th & 8 at NU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 5:46NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:16PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:40PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:24PSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:07PSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:20PSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:065% → 6%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
5.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Thomas Gordon for no gain to the PSU 11Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
5.1%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the PSU 8Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 7
OPP 8
-5
5.1%
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PSU 13Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 12
OPP 13
-2
5.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 15Similar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 14
OPP 15
+33
5.7%
Jack Olsen 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5894% → 93%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.8%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PSU 28Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
5.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 6 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
5.7%
Drew Allar run for 1 yd to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
5.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 6 yds to the PSU 41Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
5.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 42Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
5.7%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
6.8%
Riley Thompson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:017% → 7%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
6.8%
Ben Bryant sacked by Kobe King for a loss of 3 yards to the NU 16Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 13
OWN 16
-2
6.8%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the NU 14Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 15
OWN 14
+2
6.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 2 yds to the NU 16Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
7.4%
Hunter Renner punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 5:1193% → 91%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
7.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the NU 47Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+2
7.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the NU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
7.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the NU 39Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
7.4%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+3
7.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the NU 36Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 1
OPP 36
-5
7.6%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NU 41Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+15
7.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 15 yds to the NU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
7.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 16 yds to the NU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
7.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 7 yds to the NU 3Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
7.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the NU 3Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
7.4%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
9.1%
Alex Felkins 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:3010% → 11%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
10.0%
BRYANT, Ben pass up the middle incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Cam thrown to the NU50. PENALTY NU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on TIERNAN, Caleb enforced 5 yards from the NU40 to the NU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-6
9.7%
Ben Bryant sacked by Amin Vanover and Coziah Izzard for a loss of 6 yards to the NU 29Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 21
OWN 29
+19
9.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 19 yds to the NU 48Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
10.0%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
11.6%
Jack Lausch run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
50
0
11.3%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
50
-1
11.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 49Similar
Q2 14:00
4TH & 12
OWN 49
0
11.1%
Hunter Renner punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:5889% → 87%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
11.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 16Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+4
11.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PSU 20Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+6
11.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 26 Kaytron Allen fumbled, recovered by PSU for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
11.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-1
11.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaden Saunders for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 25Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
11.3%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
13.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:1614% → 25%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
13.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 1
50
+4
14.3%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the PSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
14.3%
Ben Bryant sacked by Adisa Isaac for a loss of 8 yards to the NU 46Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 18
OWN 46
+2
13.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Porter for 2 yds to the NU 48Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 16
OWN 48
+17
13.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Porter for 17 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
14.5%
Penn State Penalty, Offsides (Coziah Izzard) to the PSU 30Similar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 5
OPP 30
+6
14.5%
Ben Bryant run for 6 yds to the PSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
14.5%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+22
14.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 22 yds to the PSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
14.5%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the PSU 1Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.3%
Ben Bryant run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3977% → 75%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the PSU 29Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
22.3%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
23.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
24.7%
Riley Thompson punt for 49 yds, downed at the NU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3624% → 25%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-6
24.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for a loss of 6 yards to the NU 16Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 16
OWN 16
0
24.1%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 16
OWN 16
+3
23.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 3 yds to the NU 19Similar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
24.8%
Hunter Renner punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:1575% → 84%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
24.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 38Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+25
24.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 25 yds to the NU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
23.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 13 yds to the NU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
22.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the NU 15Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+2
22.3%
KeAndre Lambert-Smith run for 2 yds to the NU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
15.6%
Trey Potts run for 13 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:1421% → 19%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
20.7%
Ben Bryant sacked by Dani Dennis-Sutton for a loss of 6 yards to the NU 19Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+2
20.4%
Ben Bryant run for 2 yds to the NU 21Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
19.5%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
19.2%
Hunter Renner punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5483% → 79%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
17.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-9
18.2%
Drew Allar sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the PSU 36Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 36
+11
20.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 11 yds to the PSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4422% → 21%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.9%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 26Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
21.9%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
20.9%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:11
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
21.0%
Hunter Renner punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kaden Saunders at the PSU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:3180% → 86%
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
19.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the PSU 36Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+4
19.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the PSU 40Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+10
18.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
50
0
18.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
50
0
18.4%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 10
50
+35
19.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 35 yds to the NU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
17.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the NU 14Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+8
17.4%
Northwestern Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ore Adeyi) to the NU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
17.4%
Drew Allar run for 1 yd to the NU 2Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
17.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the NU 1Similar
Q3 14:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.0%
Drew Allar run for no gain to the NU 1Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.8%
Drew Allar run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1816% → 16%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
15.5%
Northwestern Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the NU 17Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 15
OWN 17
0
15.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 15
OWN 17
0
15.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+14
14.7%
Ben Bryant run for 14 yds to the NU 31Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
15.8%
Ben Bryant run for no gain to the NU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1487% → 88%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
12.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the NU 29Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
12.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for no gain to the NU 29Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
13.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+47
12.5%
Alex Felkins 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0012% → 12%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.2%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 6 yds to the NU 31Similar
Q3 5:03
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+3
11.9%
Charlie Mangieri run for 3 yds to the NU 34Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
12.3%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:3989% → 96%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
10.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the NU 31Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+16
10.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 16 yds to the NU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
10.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 2 yds to the NU 13Similar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+4
10.6%
Trey Potts run for 4 yds to the NU 9Similar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+4
10.9%
Trey Potts run for 4 yds to the NU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
10.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the NU 2Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:237% → 9%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.1%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
7.0%
Ben Bryant run for 4 yds to the NU 29Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
7.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 11 yds to the NU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
7.7%
BRYANT, Ben pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HENNING, A.J. thrown to the PSU36; QB hurried by FISHER, Zuriah. PENALTY PSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on MILLER, Cam enforced 15 yards from the NU40 to the PSU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
7.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 17 yds to the PSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
8.3%
Cam Porter run for 8 yds to the PSU 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+13
8.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 13 yds to the PSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
8.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 4 yds to the PSU 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
8.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Duke Olges for 2 yds to the PSU 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-9
7.9%
Ben Bryant sacked by Zane Durant for a loss of 9 yards to the PSU 10Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
9.2%
Jack Olsen 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:2694% → 95%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
5.8%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 12 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
5.7%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
5.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
5.8%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
5.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:187% → 5%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
6.7%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 1 yd to the NU 17Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
6.2%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+1
6.1%
Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd to the NU 18Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 8
OWN 18
0
5.2%
punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
12 plays · 40 yds · 5:0396% → 99%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
4.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
4.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the NU 38Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+14
4.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 14 yds to the NU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
3.9%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
4.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the NU 20Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+6
4.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 6 yds to the NU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
3.9%
Penn State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Sal Wormley) to the NU 24Similar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+2
4.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 2 yds to the NU 22Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 18
OPP 22
+15
4.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 15 yds to the NU 7Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+4
4.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the NU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
3.9%
Drew Allar run for 2 yds to the NU 1Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:411% → 1%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.9%
Penn State Penalty, Offsides (Amin Vanover) to the NU 30Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
0.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Johnson for 7 yds to the NU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
0.9%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Zuriah Fisher for a loss of 7 yards to the NU 30Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 17
OWN 30
0
0.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+18
0.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for 18 yds to the NU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
0.1%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Trey Potts for 30 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25END OF GAME
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.1%
Brendan Sullivan run for 2 yds to the NU 27Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
0.1%
Jake Arthurs run for 1 yd to the NU 28Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+18
0.1%
Brendan Sullivan run for 18 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
0.1%
Jake Arthurs run for 8 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
0.1%
Brendan Sullivan run for 1 yd to the PSU 45Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-8
0.1%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Keon Wylie for a loss of 8 yards to the NU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:46
Ben Bryant run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
+10.7
TD · Q2 1:16
Trey Potts run for 13 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q3 1:24
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)
-6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com