Try the model
MICH

Michigan 45 at Nebraska 7

NEB
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:51 · Davis Warren pass incomplete to Marlin Klein
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Home team on offense−58.5Pregame prior−0.7Score differential−39.9Garbage-time factor−19.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:20: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 29 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — NEB win probability +1.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 7:15: Kalel Mullings run for 20 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +0.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:22: J.J. McCarthy run for 21 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +4.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:23: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 16 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:58: Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00MICH 4th & 1 at NEB 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    85.3%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:24NEB 4th & 1 at MICH 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.0%−0.7
    86% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:15NEB 4th & 5 at NEB 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:21MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:59NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 44, down 21
    Close callPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:48NEB 4th & 13 at MICH 22, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:38NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 25, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:17MICH 4th & 4 at NEB 12, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:25NEB 4th & 10 at MICH 43, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:25MICH 4th & 1 at NEB 27, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:51MICH 4th & 2 at NEB 29, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:51NEB 4th & 8 at NEB 31, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:20MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:15MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:22MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:23MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:58MICH Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:37MICH Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:17NEB Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:4090% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
10.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Tyler Morris for 5 yds to the MICH 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
10.3%
J.J. McCarthy run for 9 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
10.3%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the MICH 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
10.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Donovan EdwardsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
10.3%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the NEB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
10.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 3 yds to the NEB 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
10.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the NEB 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+2
10.3%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the NEB 39Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
10.3%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the NEB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
10.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 8 yds to the NEB 29Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+29
11.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 29 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:4112% → 12%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.8%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the NEB 26Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
11.9%
Heinrich Haarberg pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 1:2488% → 89%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
11.6%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the NEB 25Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+5
11.6%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the NEB 20Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+20
10.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 20 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 63 yds · 5:5111% → 12%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.3%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the NEB 26Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
11.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 14 yds to the NEB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
11.5%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 2 yds to the NEB 42Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
11.5%
Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the NEB 45Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+34
11.5%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 34 yds to the MICH 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
11.7%
Billy Kemp IV run for 4 yds to the MICH 17Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-5
11.7%
PENALTY NEB False Start (Corcoran,Turner) 5 yards from U-M17 to U-M22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+7
11.7%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Nate Boerkircher for 7 yds to the MICH 15Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+3
11.6%
Janiran Bonner run for 3 yds to the MICH 12Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 1
OPP 12
0
11.9%
Heinrich Haarberg run for no gain to the MICH 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 5:0289% → 93%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
11.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 14Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+1
11.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+16
11.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 16 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
11.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MICH 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+10
11.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 10 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
11.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+20
11.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 20 yds to the NEB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
11.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the NEB 21Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+21
6.7%
J.J. McCarthy run for 21 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:078% → 8%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
8.4%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Anthony Grant for 1 yd to the NEB 26Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
8.3%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 7 yds to the NEB 19 Heinrich Haarberg fumbled, recovered by NEB Heinrich HaarbergSimilar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+11
8.2%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 11 yds to the NEB 30Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+11
8.1%
Brian Buschini punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 35 , Jake Thaw returns for 11 yds to the MICH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5494% → 93%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
6.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
6.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
6.7%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the MICH 35Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
6.7%
Tommy Doman punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 4:228% → 8%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
8.0%
Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the NEB 23Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
8.0%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Heinrich Haarberg for 2 yds to the NEB 25Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+12
7.9%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 12 yds to the NEB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
8.2%
Janiran Bonner run for 2 yds to the NEB 39Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-2
8.3%
Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 37Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+7
8.0%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 7 yds to the NEB 44Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+30
8.4%
Brian Buschini punt for 41 yds , Tyler Morris returns for 30 yds to the MICH 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:3694% → 98%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
5.8%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 42Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 13
OWN 42
+12
5.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 12 yds to the NEB 46Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+6
5.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the NEB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
5.3%
Blake Corum run for 10 yds to the NEB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
5.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 5 yds to the NEB 25Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+3
5.1%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the NEB 22Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+6
5.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the NEB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
2.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 16 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:232% → 1%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
1.7%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 16 yds to the NEB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
1.8%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 7 yds to the NEB 48Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
1.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 53 yds · 3:122% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+56
2.2%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Marcus Washington for 56 yds to the MICH 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
2.6%
Anthony Grant run for 2 yds to the MICH 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+6
2.6%
Anthony Grant run for 6 yds to the MICH 11 Anthony Grant fumbled, recovered by NEB Ben ScottSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-5
2.3%
PENALTY NEB False Start (Grant,Anthony) 5 yards from U-M11 to U-M16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-6
2.5%
Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Braiden McGregor for a loss of 6 yards to the MICH 22Similar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 13
OPP 22
+40
2.0%
Tristan Alvano 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 5:5098% → 99%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
2.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass incomplete to Colston LovelandSimilar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
2.0%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 22Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+13
2.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 13 yds to the MICH 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
2.0%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 38Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+19
1.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 19 yds to the NEB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
1.9%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the NEB 34Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+15
1.7%
Blake Corum run for 15 yds to the NEB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
1.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 8 yds to the NEB 11Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+8
1.7%
Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the NEB 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.6%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the NEB 1Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.7%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:201% → 1%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Joshua FleeksSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Marcus WashingtonSimilar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Nebraska Penalty, Illegal Shift (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
0.7%
Brian Buschini punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyler Morris at the MICH 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 6:2199% → 99%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
0.8%
Jack Tuttle pass incomplete to Darrius ClemonsSimilar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+20
0.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Tuttle,Jack pass incomplete short right to Barner,AJ PENALTY NEB Offside (Robinson,Ty) NEB UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Sherman,MJ) 20 yards from U-M27 to U-M47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
0.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 49Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+10
0.8%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Darrius Clemons for 10 yds to the NEB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
0.8%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Max Bredeson for 5 yds to the NEB 36Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+1
0.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the NEB 35Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+5
0.8%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the NEB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
0.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the NEB 26Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+8
0.8%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 8 yds to the NEB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
0.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the NEB 14Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
0.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the NEB 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
0.5%
Jack Tuttle run for no gain to the NEB 12Similar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+30
0.6%
James Turner 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 31 yds · 3:470% → 0%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
0.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the NEB 27Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+3
0.3%
Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-9
0.3%
Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Derrick Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the NEB 21 Heinrich Haarberg fumbled, recovered by NEB Bryce Benhart , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 19
OWN 21
+6
0.3%
Emmett Johnson run for 6 yds to the NEB 27Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+13
0.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 13 yds to the NEB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
0.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 17 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
0.4%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Emmett JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
0.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Jaylen LloydSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
0.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Marcus WashingtonSimilar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 10
OPP 43
-7
0.2%
Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 5:48100% → 100%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
50
+6
0.3%
Leon Franklin run for 6 yds to the NEB 44Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+8
0.3%
Jayden Denegal run for 8 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
0.3%
Leon Franklin run for 3 yds to the NEB 33Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+2
0.3%
Jayden Denegal run for 2 yds to the NEB 31Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+4
0.3%
Leon Franklin run for 4 yds to the NEB 27Similar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+6
0.3%
Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the NEB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
0.3%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 4 yds to the NEB 17Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+7
0.3%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 7 yds to the NEB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
0.2%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 2 yds to the NEB 8Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.2%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 8 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
0.1%
Joshua Fleeks run for 74 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.1%
Davis Warren pass incomplete to Semaj MorganSimilar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
0.1%
Leon Franklin run for 9 yds to the NEB 38Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
0.1%
Leon Franklin run for 1 yd to the NEB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
0.1%
Leon Franklin run for 3 yds to the NEB 34Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
0.1%
Davis Warren run for 4 yds to the NEB 30Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+1
0.1%
Tavierre Dunlap run for 1 yd to the NEB 29Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 2
OPP 29
0
0.1%
Davis Warren pass incomplete to Marlin KleinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 19END OF GAME
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
0.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
0.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Joshua Fleeks for 2 yds to the NEB 31Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Janiran BonnerSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 8
OWN 31
+19
0.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Jaylen Lloyd for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
50
0
0.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:22
J.J. McCarthy run for 21 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
-4.2
TD · Q2 0:23
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 16 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
-3
TD · Q1 9:20
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 29 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com