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ALA

Alabama 40 at Mississippi State 17

MSST
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of GameFG-0.5MSST 1.0%Will Reichard 48 Yd Field GoalAWAY 40 - HOME 17 · Q4 6:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:08 · Will Reichard 48 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior−4.3Home team on offense−48.9Score differential−29.2Garbage-time factor−9.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−9.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:07: Will Reichard 48 Yd Field Goal — ALA win probability +2.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:26: Mike Wright 15 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick) — MSST win probability +7.5 pts (now 24%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:07: Jase McClellan 2 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +5.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:31: Jalen Milroe 10 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick) — ALA win probability +5.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:11: Jeffery Pittman 1 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Kyle Ferrie Kick) — MSST win probability +4.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:22ALA 4th & 20 at ALA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:48MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:22ALA 4th & 8 at MSST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:09MSST 4th & 14 at MSST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:44MSST 4th & 8 at ALA 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:07ALA 4th & 2 at MSST 30, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%−0.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:50ALA 4th & 10 at MSST 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    83.4%−6.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:31MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:14ALA 4th & 2 at ALA 28, up 17
    Close callPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:33MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 42, down 17
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:04ALA 4th & 5 at MSST 16, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−3.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:38MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 24, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:08ALA 4th & 6 at MSST 30, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:46MSST 4th & 5 at ALA 28, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ALA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:48ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:51ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:26MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:07ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:31ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:11MSST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:3385% → 84%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
15.1%
Jase McClellan run for 12 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
15.3%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Jett Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 36Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+4
15.6%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 12
OWN 40
-8
15.9%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Donterry Russell for a loss of 8 yards to the ALA 32Similar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 20
OWN 32
0
16.4%
James Burnip punt for 67 yds, downed at the MSST 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3416% → 17%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
16.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
16.4%
Will Rogers run for 1 yd to the MSST 2Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+3
16.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 3 yds to the MSST 5Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 6
OWN 5
-4
16.9%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 42 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 49 Kool-Aid McKinstry fumbled, forced by DeShawn Page, recovered by ALA Kool-Aid McKinstrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:2683% → 82%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
16.8%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-5
16.9%
McClellan, Jase rush for 2 yards to the MISSSTATE45, PENALTY ALABAMA false start 5 yards to the ALABAMA48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+7
17.3%
Roydell Williams run for 7 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-4
17.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 49 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ALA Jalen MilroeSimilar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
18.3%
James Burnip punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 2:1318% → 19%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
18.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 7 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-2
18.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 25Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-9
18.8%
Will Rogers sacked by Trezmen Marshall for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 16Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
19.0%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 1:2181% → 83%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
19.3%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 33Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+14
19.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 14 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
17.1%
Jalen Milroe 53 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6INT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5718% → 16%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
17.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
18.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-28
15.9%
Chris Braswell 28 Yd Interception Return (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 6:0716% → 18%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
16.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 24Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
15.4%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the MSST 24Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+12
15.4%
Will Rogers run for 12 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
15.8%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+13
16.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 13 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
16.4%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q1 0:16
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
16.4%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-5
16.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALA 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+29
16.4%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 29 yds to the ALA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
16.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the ALA 11Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
16.9%
Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the ALA 9Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-4
16.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Trezmen Marshall and Jihaad Campbell for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 13Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+31
17.7%
Kyle Ferrie 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8FG
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:3083% → 85%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
17.2%
Roydell Williams run for 11 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
17.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for 27 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
16.6%
Roydell Williams run for 8 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+1
16.6%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the MSST 29Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 1
OPP 29
-1
16.8%
Roydell Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 30Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+48
14.8%
Will Reichard 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:3315% → 24%
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Creed WhittemoreSimilar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
15.2%
Lideatrick Griffin run for 2 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+22
15.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 22 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
16.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the ALA 38Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
15.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+10
15.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 10 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
16.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+13
16.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 13 yds to the ALA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
23.7%
Mike Wright 15 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 5:1980% → 90%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
20.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
19.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the ALA 32Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
19.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 3 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
19.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
19.2%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-5
18.9%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ALA 39Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+18
19.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 18 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
17.9%
Jase McClellan run for 11 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
17.3%
Jase McClellan run for 8 yds to the MSST 24Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 2
OPP 24
-5
17.2%
Milroe, Jalen pass complete to Ouzts, Robbie for 7 yards to the MISSSTATE17, PENALTY ALABAMA ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MISSSTATE29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+19
16.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 19 yds to the MSST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
17.0%
Jase McClellan run for no gain to the MSST 10Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
16.8%
Jase McClellan run for 8 yds to the MSST 2Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
10.3%
Jase McClellan 2 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
11.4%
Will Rogers pass intercepted Jihaad Campbell return for 2 yds to the MSST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12TD
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:2690% → 95%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
10.5%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+17
10.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 17 yds to the MSST 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
4.9%
Jalen Milroe 10 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
12.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:499% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
8.7%
Lideatrick Griffin run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 24Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+13
8.6%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 13 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
9.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 15 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
9.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for 10 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
9.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 39Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+15
9.2%
Will Rogers run for 15 yds to the ALA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
9.6%
Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the ALA 22Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+18
9.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 18 yds to the ALA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
9.9%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the ALA 3Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
10.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the ALA 1Similar
Q3 9:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.0%
Jeffery Pittman 1 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Kyle Ferrie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 6:1289% → 92%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
11.5%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the ALA 27Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+23
11.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
50
-5
10.3%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 5 yards to the ALA 45Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+4
10.7%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+20
10.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 20 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
9.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 5 yds to the MSST 26Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
9.2%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the MSST 22Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
9.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the MSST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
8.9%
Roydell Williams run for 6 yds to the MSST 14Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
8.9%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the MSST 14Similar
Q3 3:34
3RD & 4
OPP 14
-6
8.9%
Jalen Milroe sacked by DeShawn Page and Jaden Crumedy for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 20Similar
Q3 2:50
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
8.3%
Will Reichard 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1910% → 10%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
9.7%
Seth Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
9.6%
Seth Davis run for 4 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
9.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+49
9.5%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the ALA 30 Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ALA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1793% → 93%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
6.8%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the ALA 25Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
6.7%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
6.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jalen HaleSimilar
Q3 0:14
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
7.0%
James Burnip punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:419% → 7%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
8.7%
Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+12
8.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 12 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
9.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for a loss of 7 yards to the MSST 36 lat. to Zavion Thomas for 6 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+1
7.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 1 yd to the MSST 43Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-1
7.0%
Will Rogers sacked by Jah-Marien Latham and Dallas Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 42Similar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 11
OWN 42
-8
6.5%
Will Rogers sacked by Justin Eboigbe and Dallas Turner for a loss of 8 yards to the MSST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:2995% → 98%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
5.0%
Milroe, Jalen pass complete to Niblack, Amari for 7 yards to the MISSSTATE27, PENALTY ALABAMA holding 10 yards to the MISSSTATE44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 20
OPP 44
-3
5.2%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Nathaniel Watson and Donterry Russell for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 47Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 23
OPP 47
+26
4.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 26 yds to the MSST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
4.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Amari NiblackSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
4.5%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the MSST 17Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-5
4.4%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 22Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+6
4.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 6 yds to the MSST 16Similar
Q4 9:04
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
2.0%
Will Reichard 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20INT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:212% → 2%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
2.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 2 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q4 8:31
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+4
2.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Seth Davis for 4 yds to the MSST 24Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
2.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 4
OWN 24
-11
2.0%
Will Rogers pass intercepted Caleb Downs return for 11 yds to the MSST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3098% → 99%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
1.6%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the MSST 34Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-1
1.6%
Ty Simpson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 35Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
1.4%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Jalen HaleSimilar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+5
1.5%
Mississippi State Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MSST 30Similar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
1.0%
Will Reichard 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:141% → 1%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
1.1%
Seth Davis run for 11 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
1.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 7 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+7
1.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
1.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Freddie RobersonSimilar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-5
1.2%
Lee, Keyvone rush for 9 yards to the ALABAMA24, PENALTY MISSSTATE illegal formation 5 yards to the ALABAMA38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+10
1.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 10 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
1.2%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the ALA 28Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 5
OPP 28
0
1.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:5899% → 100%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
0.7%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+15
0.7%
Justice Haynes run for 15 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
0.5%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
0.5%
Justice Haynes run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:26
Mike Wright 15 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)
+7.5
TD · Q2 1:07
Jase McClellan 2 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)
-5.8
TD · Q2 0:31
Jalen Milroe 10 Yd Run (Will Reichard Kick)
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com