Try the model
UL

Louisiana 24 at Minnesota 35

MINN
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:57 · Mark Crawford punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior+4.0Home team on offense+19.0Garbage-time factor+12.2Score differential+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:30: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 10 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +4.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:47: Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +11.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:48: Zach Evans run for 18 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +12.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:45: Bryce Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +13.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:01: Jacob Kibodi run for 52 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +4.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:33MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 12, down 7
    Close callPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:33UL 4th & 9 at UL 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:26UL 4th & 5 at MINN 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:21MINN 4th & 1 at UL 2, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.9%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−8.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 6:17UL 4th & 4 at UL 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:13MINN 4th & 15 at MINN 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  7. Q4 11:31UL 4th & 10 at midfield, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:57MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 14, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:21MINN 4th & 2 at UL 37, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    92.9%−0.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:01UL 4th & 1 at UL 48, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:00MINN 4th & 1 at UL 27, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.9%−0.7
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    94.9%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:36UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:30MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:21MINN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:47UL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:48MINN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:45MINN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:21MINN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:01UL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2427% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.3%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 6 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+16
73.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 16 yds to the UL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
73.3%
Jacob Kibodi run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
50
-5
73.3%
QB Keeper CHRISS, Zeon rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the UMN46 (BAUGH, Kyler). PENALTY Before the snap, LA Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the LA50 to the LA45. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+16
73.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 16 yds to the MINN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
73.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Neal Johnson for 8 yds to the MINN 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 31
0
73.3%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+22
73.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Charles Robertson for 22 yds to the MINN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
73.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 2 yds to the MINN 7Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
70.6%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 7 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0371% → 70%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
71.1%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the MINN 7Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+6
71.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 6 yds to the MINN 13Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 1
OWN 13
-1
70.9%
Cole Kramer run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 12Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 2
OWN 12
0
69.5%
Mark Crawford punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0031% → 31%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
69.3%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
69.3%
Jacob Kibodi run for 1 yd to the UL 48Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
69.4%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
69.2%
Thomas Leo punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the MINN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 5:0369% → 72%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
69.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 3 yds to the MINN 17Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+6
69.3%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the MINN 23Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+2
69.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the MINN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.4%
Louisiana Penalty, Offsides (Sonny Hazard) to the MINN 30Similar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+8
69.7%
Zach Evans run for 8 yds to the MINN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+28
69.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 28 yds to the UL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
70.4%
Zach Evans run for 11 yds to the UL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
70.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 8 yds to the UL 15Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+5
67.6%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the UL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
72.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 10 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 4:0430% → 34%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.9%
Louisiana Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UL 20Similar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+15
70.0%
Minnesota Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MINN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
68.7%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the MINN 45Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+29
68.7%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 29 yds to the MINN 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
67.1%
Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd to the MINN 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+2
67.1%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 2 yds to the MINN 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+2
67.6%
Zeon Chriss run for 2 yds to the MINN 11Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
66.3%
Kenneth Almendares 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:0567% → 72%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
67.0%
KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass up the middle incomplete intended for JACKSON, Daniel broken up by ANDERSON, Caleb at the UMN40. PENALTY LA Pass Interference on ANDERSON, Caleb enforced 15 yards to the UMN40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
68.3%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
68.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Nick Kallerup for 5 yds to the MINN 48Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+6
68.1%
Bryce Williams run for 6 yds to the UL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
68.9%
Zach Evans run for 6 yds to the UL 40Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+10
68.9%
Louisiana Penalty, Defensive Holding (Sonny Hazard) to the UL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
69.4%
Sean Tyler run for 12 yds to the UL 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
69.4%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the UL 6Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
69.4%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the UL 3Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+1
68.6%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the UL 2Similar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
72.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:3429% → 45%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.7%
Zylan Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 24Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+16
70.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 16 yds to the UL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
69.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 8 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+10
68.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 10 yds to the MINN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
68.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 18 yds to the MINN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
67.3%
Zylan Perry run for 3 yds to the MINN 21Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+5
67.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 5 yds to the MINN 16Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+3
68.1%
Jacob Kibodi run for 3 yds to the MINN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
67.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 4 yds to the MINN 9Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
67.3%
Jacob Kibodi run for 3 yds to the MINN 6Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
55.4%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0460% → 62%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.1%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the MINN 26Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
59.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 10 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
60.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 3 yds to the MINN 39Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
61.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
58.0%
Jacob Kibodi run for 1 yd to the UL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 6:1261% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
60.5%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the MINN 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
60.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 8 yds to the MINN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
61.0%
Zach Evans run for 7 yds to the MINN 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+7
63.5%
Zach Evans run for 7 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
63.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 16 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
64.1%
Sean Tyler run for 9 yds to the UL 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+2
65.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the UL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
65.2%
Sean Tyler run for 7 yds to the UL 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+1
65.2%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the UL 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+2
63.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the UL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
76.6%
Zach Evans run for 18 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:3128% → 29%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
71.9%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 16 yds to the UL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
69.9%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 4 yds to the UL 45Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
68.8%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the UL 46Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+1
69.3%
Zeon Chriss run for 1 yd to the UL 47Similar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
71.0%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0476% → 72%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
76.0%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the UL 45Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+1
76.0%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the UL 44Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 7
OPP 44
-8
75.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Cameron Whitfield for a loss of 8 yards to the MINN 48Similar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
71.8%
Mark Crawford punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2929% → 28%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
71.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Charles Robertson for 6 yds to the UL 26Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
70.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for 2 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 2
OWN 28
-5
71.4%
Louisiana Penalty, False Start (Nathan Thomas) to the UL 23Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
72.5%
Zeon Chriss pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14TD
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:5977% → 90%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
76.7%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the UL 40Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+1
76.6%
Zach Evans run for 1 yd to the UL 39Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+11
76.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 11 yds to the UL 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
77.5%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the UL 27Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
77.5%
KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CROOMS, Corey thrown to the LA0. PENALTY LA Pass Interference on MARTIN, Keyon enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the LA13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
77.8%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the UL 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+7
77.8%
Bryce Williams run for 7 yds to the UL 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+1
76.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 1 yd to the UL 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.8%
Bryce Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:1013% → 11%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
87.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 1 yd to the UL 18Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
87.4%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+32
88.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
50
0
84.2%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
50
0
84.8%
Zeon Chriss run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 10
50
0
85.8%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 10
50
0
88.8%
Thomas Leo punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the MINN 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3489% → 90%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
89.1%
Zach Evans run for 3 yds to the MINN 11Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
89.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 3 yds to the MINN 14Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 4
OWN 14
0
88.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 4
OWN 14
0
90.3%
Mark Crawford punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jacob Bernard at the UL 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
88.3%
Zeon Chriss pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 4:3092% → 98%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
92.4%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the MINN 48Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
92.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 5 yds to the UL 47Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
92.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the UL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
92.4%
Bryce Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UL 46Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+2
92.3%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+7
94.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 7 yds to the UL 37Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+37
98.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 37 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:202% → 7%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.6%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 8 yds to the UL 33Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
97.4%
Zeon Chriss run for 6 yds to the UL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.4%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
97.5%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Terrance Carter for 5 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+4
97.5%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Jacob Kibodi for 4 yds to the UL 48Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+52
93.5%
Jacob Kibodi run for 52 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:5397% → 97%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
96.5%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the UL 49Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
97.1%
Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the UL 44Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+8
97.1%
Bryce Williams run for 8 yds to the UL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
97.1%
Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the UL 31Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
97.2%
Bryce Williams run for 3 yds to the UL 28Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
97.2%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the UL 27Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+5
97.4%
Bryce Williams run for 5 yds to the UL 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:45
Bryce Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q3 8:48
Zach Evans run for 18 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+12.9
TD · Q2 1:47
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Robert Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
-11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com