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MSU

Michigan State 16 at Iowa 26

IOWA
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:18 · Tory Taylor punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+22.4Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:48: Deacon Hill pass complete to Erick All for 13 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK) — IOWA win probability +7.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Jonathan Kim 58 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:08: Cal Haladay 42 Yd Fumble Return (Jonathan Kim Kick) — MSU win probability +10.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:19: Drew Stevens 36 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +15.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:45: Cooper DeJean 70 Yd Punt Return (Drew Stevens Kick) — IOWA win probability +34.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 10 of 11MSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 11:25IOWA 4th & 5 at MSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:59MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:19IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:48MSU 4th & 8 at IOWA 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:18IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:04MSU 4th & 5 at IOWA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−2.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:05IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 28, down 3
    Close callPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:48MSU 4th & 16 at MSU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:43IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:45MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.5%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:38IOWA 4th & 15 at MSU 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:29MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−3.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:59IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−1.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:38MSU 4th & 9 at IOWA 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:21IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−3.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:17MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:39IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:54MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−5.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:19IOWA 4th & 1 at MSU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.5
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−19.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:45MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−12.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:59IOWA 4th & 7 at MSU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−1.9
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:29MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 3:48IOWA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:08MSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:45IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:3478% → 77%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
77.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Diante Vines for 23 yds to the IOWA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
77.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 14 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
77.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Steven Stilianos for 9 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+2
77.6%
Kamari Moulton run for 2 yds to the MSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
77.6%
Leshon Williams run for 5 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 5
OPP 22
0
77.4%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
77.3%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
77.3%
Drew Stevens 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:1823% → 23%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
77.2%
Alante Brown run for 10 yds to the MSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
77.1%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 29Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
77.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 5 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+2
76.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 2 yds to the MSU 36Similar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
76.9%
Ryan Eckley punt for 61 yds, downed at the IOWA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3277% → 76%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
76.5%
Leshon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the IOWA 2Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 11
OWN 2
0
76.2%
Cade McNamara run for no gain to the IOWA 2Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 11
OWN 2
+4
75.9%
Deacon Hill run for 4 yds to the IOWA 6Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
75.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:1524% → 26%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
76.0%
Nathan Carter run for 10 yds to the IOWA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
75.8%
Iowa Penalty, Personal Foul (Logan Lee) to the IOWA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
75.3%
Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 5 yds to the IOWA 11Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 5
OPP 11
-15
75.1%
(05:38) CARTER, Nate rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the IOW7 (LEE, Logan;CRAIG, Deontae), clock 05:35. PENALTY MSU Personal Foul on MORRIS, Evan enforced 15 yards from the IOW11 to the IOW26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 20
OPP 26
+6
75.4%
Noah Kim run for 6 yds to the IOWA 20Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 14
OPP 20
+6
75.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 6 yds to the IOWA 14Similar
Q1 3:48
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
74.3%
Jonathan Kim 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2675% → 74%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
74.7%
Leshon Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 22Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
74.4%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Diante Vines for 6 yds to the IOWA 28Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
74.0%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:18
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
73.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 6:0826% → 31%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
73.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 9 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
72.9%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
72.7%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+13
72.1%
Nathan Carter run for 13 yds to the IOWA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
71.6%
Jaelon Barbarin run for 1 yd to the IOWA 42Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+5
71.4%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the IOWA 37Similar
Q2 13:48
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+2
71.1%
Noah Kim run for 2 yds to the IOWA 35Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+5
71.7%
(13:09) KIM, Noah pass deep to the left incomplete intended for GLOVER, Jaron broken up by HARRIS, Jermari at the IOW7, clock 13:04. PENALTY IOW Offsides on BLACK, Yahya enforced 5 yards from the IOW35 to the IOW30 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
70.2%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
70.3%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 8 yds to the IOWA 22Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
70.4%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the IOWA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
69.5%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
69.7%
Noah Kim run for 5 yds to the IOWA 14Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 5
OPP 14
0
69.8%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
69.0%
Jonathan Kim 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4970% → 68%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
69.6%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Diante Vines for 6 yds to the IOWA 28Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
69.7%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
68.9%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
68.1%
Tory Taylor punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8INT
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:4631% → 38%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
68.9%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+3
68.3%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+20
68.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 20 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
65.4%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
65.4%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the IOWA 47Similar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+14
64.9%
Noah Kim run for 14 yds to the IOWA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
63.5%
Nathan Carter run for 13 yds to the IOWA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
62.4%
Noah Kim pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:1566% → 76%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+47
65.7%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Erick All for 32 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on ADELEYE, Tunmise enforced (15 Yards) to the MSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
69.1%
Kamari Moulton run for 2 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+17
69.1%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Erick All for 17 yds to the MSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
68.9%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the MSU 13Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
76.3%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Erick All for 13 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:5927% → 25%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
73.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 10 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
72.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaylan Franklin for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 34Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-10
72.6%
(02:33) KIM, Noah pass to the right incomplete intended for GLOVER, Jaron thrown to the MSU45, clock 02:28. PENALTY MSU Holding on BALDWIN, Brandon enforced 10 yards from the MSU34 to the MSU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 21
OWN 24
+2
73.6%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+3
74.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 3 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
74.7%
Ryan Eckley punt for 50 yds, downed at the IOWA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5574% → 72%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
74.3%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Leshon Williams for 5 yds to the IOWA 26Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
74.3%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
73.4%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
72.3%
Tory Taylor punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12FG
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:3527% → 32%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.9%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
73.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 16 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
72.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nathan Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 36Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+16
76.7%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 16 yds to the IOWA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
73.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 8 yds to the IOWA 40Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+58
67.9%
Jonathan Kim 58 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13INT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:3529% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.3%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
70.8%
Nathan Carter run for 10 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
69.7%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
70.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 12 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
68.2%
Noah Kim pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+42
58.1%
Cal Haladay 42 Yd Fumble Return (Jonathan Kim Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15INT
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:5457% → 61%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.9%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Steven Stilianos for 15 yds to the IOWA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
58.4%
Kamari Moulton run for 6 yds to the IOWA 46Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+7
58.7%
Kamari Moulton run for 7 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
59.0%
Michigan State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on BARROW, Simeon enforced (Simeon Barrow Jr.) to the MSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
60.5%
Deacon Hill pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2147% → 48%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
52.7%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 21Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
52.5%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-5
53.6%
Michigan State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Alante Brown) to the MSU 16Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+14
53.5%
Nathan Carter run for 14 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
52.1%
Noah Kim run for no gain to the MSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17FG
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5760% → 57%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
59.6%
Kamari Moulton run for 3 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+1
59.3%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Steven Stilianos for 1 yd to the MSU 26Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-9
57.0%
Deacon Hill sacked by Chester Kimbrough for a loss of 9 yards to the MSU 35Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 15
OPP 35
+53
56.6%
Drew Stevens 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:0644% → 43%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
56.4%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 9 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
54.4%
Noah Kim run for 8 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
53.1%
Alante Brown run for a loss of 8 yards to the MSU 34Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+4
55.8%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the MSU 38Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 14
OWN 38
0
55.3%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
57.3%
Ryan Eckley punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Cooper DeJean at the IOWA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2357% → 53%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
57.1%
Terrell Washington Jr. run for 3 yds to the IOWA 13Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
56.2%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+2
54.4%
Leshon Williams run for 2 yds to the IOWA 15Similar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
53.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 36 yds, downed at the MSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0851% → 49%
Q3 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
49.5%
Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the IOWA 43Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+9
48.3%
Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the IOWA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
46.9%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
45.8%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the IOWA 28Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 4
OPP 28
-5
47.1%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (Jaylan Franklin) to the IOWA 33Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
47.5%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:38
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+50
50.6%
Jonathan Kim 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1655% → 51%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
54.5%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
54.2%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:29
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
52.1%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
50.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5750% → 47%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
50.4%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q4 14:59
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
49.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 2 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
50.7%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
52.8%
Ryan Eckley punt for 67 yds, downed at the IOWA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:2952% → 42%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
51.9%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+2
51.6%
Kamari Moulton run for 2 yds to the IOWA 7Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 8
OWN 7
+14
49.4%
(13:18) HILL, Deacon pass to the left incomplete intended for ANDERSON, Seth thrown to the IOW22, clock 13:10. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on WILLIE, Ade enforced at the spot of the foul for 14 yards to the IOW21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
52.2%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the IOWA 22Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+4
50.0%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 4 yds to the IOWA 26Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+11
48.5%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Seth Anderson for 11 yds to the IOWA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
50.7%
Kamari Moulton run for 1 yd to the IOWA 38Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
49.8%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
48.1%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
43.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 12Similar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
42.1%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (Tyrell Henry) to the MSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:3857% → 58%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+4
42.6%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 11Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+12
40.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 12 yds to the MSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
39.8%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 25Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-2
39.1%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 23Similar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
39.8%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
41.6%
Ryan Eckley punt for 15 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2751% → 63%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
51.0%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Erick All for 5 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+4
51.4%
Leshon Williams run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
48.3%
Deacon Hill run for 2 yds to the MSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
50.7%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
50.5%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+9
47.3%
Leshon Williams run for 9 yds to the MSU 18Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+36
62.6%
Drew Stevens 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26PUNT TD
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:3347% → 9%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.4%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.7%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 7 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
52.6%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (Alante Brown) to the MSU 27Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
54.7%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (Alante Brown) to the MSU 22Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
56.2%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:45
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+70
91.0%
Cooper DeJean 70 Yd Punt Return (Drew Stevens Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0810% → 10%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.8%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds Tre Mosley fumbled, recovered by IOWA Ethan HurkettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 28FG
10 plays · 14 yds · 2:2895% → 97%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
95.0%
Leshon Williams run for 6 yds to the MSU 24Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+5
95.5%
Leshon Williams run for 5 yds to the MSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
95.9%
Leshon Williams run for 3 yds to the MSU 16Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+2
96.3%
Leshon Williams run for 2 yds to the MSU 14Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+3
96.2%
Leshon Williams run for 3 yds to the MSU 11Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 2
OPP 11
-5
96.6%
Iowa Penalty, False Start (Gennings Dunker) to the MSU 16Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
96.6%
Drew Stevens 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 29INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:473% → 4%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 2 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
97.0%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+16
97.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaylan Franklin for 16 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
96.5%
Noah Kim pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.9%
(00:06) Kneel down by IOW at IOW30 (team loss of 2), clock 00:01.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:45
Cooper DeJean 70 Yd Punt Return (Drew Stevens Kick)
+34.9
FG · Q4 5:19
Drew Stevens 36 yd FG GOOD
+15.3
TD · Q3 13:08
Cal Haladay 42 Yd Fumble Return (Jonathan Kim Kick)
-10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com