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UGA

Georgia 27 at Auburn 20

AUB
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreUGA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:54 · Brett Thorson punt for 41 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior−31.0Home team on offense−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:31: Robby Ashford run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +13.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:03: Daijun Edwards run for 13 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +18.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 10:57: Peyton Woodring 38 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +10.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:21: Alex McPherson 42 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +15.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:52: Carson Beck pass complete to Brock Bowers for 40 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +30.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 9 of 11UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:02AUB 4th & 11 at AUB 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:54UGA 4th & 2 at AUB 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:04AUB 4th & 2 at UGA 9, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.6%−0.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:44AUB 4th & 2 at UGA 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−0.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:52AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 34, up 3
    Close callPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:57UGA 4th & 11 at AUB 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−5.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:18AUB 4th & 1 at UGA 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−1.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:25UGA 4th & 2 at UGA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−0.9
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00AUB 4th & 13 at AUB 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−2.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:22UGA 4th & 3 at AUB 47, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:27AUB 4th & 16 at UGA 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:34AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:57UGA 4th & 5 at AUB 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−18.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:21AUB 4th & 2 at UGA 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−1.1
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−16.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:28AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:28AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 2:00AUB Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:50UGA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:31AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:03UGA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:52UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.6 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5817% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
17.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 2 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
17.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-2
17.4%
Payton Thorne sacked by Xavian Sorey Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 24Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
18.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:0882% → 80%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
18.3%
Daijun Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 31Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+2
18.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Brock Bowers for 2 yds to the UGA 33Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+11
18.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 11 yds to the UGA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
18.2%
Daijun Edwards run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 4
50
+2
18.2%
Daijun Edwards run for 2 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
19.5%
Daijun Edwards run for no gain to the AUB 48Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
19.7%
Brett Thorson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3FG
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:5020% → 23%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
19.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 9Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+61
19.8%
Payton Thorne run for 61 yds to the UGA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
20.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+13
20.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 13 yds to the UGA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
20.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the UGA 12Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+1
22.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the UGA 11Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+2
22.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the UGA 9Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+27
22.9%
Alex McPherson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 4INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1577% → 77%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
22.6%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
22.9%
Carson Beck pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:4424% → 29%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
23.7%
Payton Thorne sacked by Tykee Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the AUB 46Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 16
OWN 46
+5
23.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Brian Battie for 5 yds to the UGA 49Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+9
23.0%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the UGA 40Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+5
23.1%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the UGA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
23.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the UGA 34Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+15
23.7%
THORNE, Payton pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HOOKS, Shane thrown to the UGA10. PENALTY UGA Pass Interference on EVERETTE, Daylen enforced 15 yards to the UGA19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
23.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 14 yds to the UGA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
29.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD
11 plays · 56 yds · 5:0172% → 74%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
27.7%
Daijun Edwards run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 4
50
+7
27.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Brock Bowers for 7 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
27.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 8 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
26.7%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+3
28.7%
Brock Bowers run for 3 yds to the AUB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
28.4%
Dillon Bell run for 14 yds to the AUB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
28.2%
Dillon Bell run for 5 yds to the AUB 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
-2
28.2%
Daijun Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+10
28.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Rara Thomas for 10 yds to the AUB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
28.2%
Daijun Edwards run for 3 yds to the AUB 2Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.0%
Daijun Edwards run for 2 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5829% → 30%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.8%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the AUB 25Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Brian Battie for 7 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
28.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
29.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the UGA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:5570% → 72%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
29.8%
Dillon Bell run for 4 yds to the UGA 24Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+13
29.5%
Daijun Edwards run for 13 yds to the UGA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
29.1%
Daijun Edwards run for 4 yds to the UGA 41Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+13
28.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 13 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
27.7%
Dillon Bell run for 2 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+26
27.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 26 yds to the AUB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
26.9%
Daijun Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 19Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
27.2%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 11
OPP 19
0
27.9%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+37
27.9%
Peyton Woodring 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:3332% → 35%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
32.0%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 38Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+14
32.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 14 yds to the UGA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
33.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+17
33.4%
Brian Battie run for 17 yds to the UGA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
34.2%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the UGA 30Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+9
34.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 9 yds to the UGA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
34.2%
Robby Ashford run for 5 yds to the UGA 16Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
34.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the UGA 12Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 1
OPP 12
0
33.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the UGA 12Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 1
OPP 12
0
35.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the UGA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5369% → 67%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
31.3%
Daijun Edwards run for 2 yds to the UGA 14Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
31.6%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+6
32.7%
Daijun Edwards run for 6 yds to the UGA 20Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
33.3%
Brett Thorson punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Koy Moore at the AUB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:2533% → 33%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
33.4%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the AUB 29Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-4
34.7%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 25Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
33.2%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the AUB 25Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
32.7%
Oscar Chapman punt for 71 yds, downed at the UGA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
32.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 7 yds Oscar Delp fumbled, recovered by AUB Jalen McLeodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 1:1140% → 53%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
39.8%
Robby Ashford run for 18 yds to the UGA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
39.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the UGA 9Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
52.8%
Robby Ashford run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:0152% → 50%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
48.5%
Daijun Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 24Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
48.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 5 yds to the UGA 29Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
49.1%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 17 yds to the UGA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
45.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 6 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+1
44.9%
Daijun Edwards run for 1 yd to the AUB 47Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
48.0%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
49.6%
Brett Thorson punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:5552% → 61%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
52.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 21Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
52.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+17
50.9%
Payton Thorne run for 17 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
54.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 38Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
54.0%
Payton Thorne run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
50
+7
56.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 7 yds to the UGA 43Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+7
56.4%
Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the UGA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
56.5%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the UGA 35Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-7
56.7%
Payton Thorne sacked by Smael Mondon Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the UGA 42Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 16
OPP 42
0
53.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 16
OPP 42
0
60.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 40 yds, downed at the UGA 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16TD
10 plays · 98 yds · 4:2442% → 66%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+16
58.1%
Daijun Edwards run for 16 yds to the UGA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
57.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Brock Bowers for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 16Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+7
58.2%
Carson Beck run for 7 yds to the UGA 23Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+14
58.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Rara Thomas for 14 yds to the UGA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
55.7%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
56.3%
Carson Beck run for no gain to the UGA 37Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+12
58.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 12 yds to the UGA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
53.4%
Daijun Edwards run for 9 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+29
52.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Brock Bowers for 29 yds to the AUB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
33.8%
Daijun Edwards run for 13 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2945% → 43%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 5 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
46.4%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-4
46.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 30Similar
Q4 14:34
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
43.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 55 yds , returns for no gain to the UGA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18FG
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:3757% → 72%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+37
42.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Brock Bowers for 37 yds to the UGA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
37.6%
Cash Jones run for 1 yd to the UGA 47Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
38.0%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+28
39.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Brock Bowers for 28 yds to the AUB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
34.7%
BECK, Carson pass up the middle complete for 15 yards to BOWERS, Brock caught at the AU11 and advanced to the AU10 (WOODEN, Caleb). PENALTY UGA Illegal Touch-Pass on BOWERS, Brock enforced 0 yards from the AU25 to the AU25, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-2
35.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 27Similar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+7
38.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 7 yds to the AUB 20Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
28.3%
Peyton Woodring 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:2934% → 55%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 5 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
34.6%
Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
35.3%
THORNE, Payton pass deep to the left incomplete intended for FAIR, Jay thrown to the UGA30. PENALTY UGA Pass Interference on SMITH, Tykee enforced 15 yards to the UGA49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
39.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the UGA 49Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
38.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Brian Battie for 6 yds to the UGA 43Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+11
39.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 11 yds to the UGA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
42.4%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the UGA 28Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
42.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+4
39.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 4 yds to the UGA 24Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+42
55.0%
Alex McPherson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:2955% → 92%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Cash Jones for 4 yds to the UGA 29Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+18
43.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 18 yds to the UGA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
40.0%
Daijun Edwards run for a loss of 2 yards to the UGA 45Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
43.0%
Carson Beck pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+16
45.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Brock Bowers for 16 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
39.4%
Carson Beck run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 40Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+40
8.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Brock Bowers for 40 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:2419% → 15%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
18.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 22 yds to the AUB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
23.3%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 48Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
22.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
15.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
15.0%
Payton Thorne pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
15.0%
Payton Thorne pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 1:2895% → 96%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
4.7%
Kneel down by BECK, Carson at AU42 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 42
0
4.1%
[NH] Kneel down by BECK, Carson at AU44 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:52
Carson Beck pass complete to Brock Bowers for 40 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
-30.9
TD · Q3 1:03
Daijun Edwards run for 13 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
-18.4
FG · Q4 6:21
Alex McPherson 42 yd FG GOOD
+15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com