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TA&M

Texas A&M 34 at Arkansas 22

ARK
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 30, 2023 · AT&T Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the ARK 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:13: Earnest Crownover 2 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Randy Bond Kick) — TA&M win probability +9.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:54: Lorando Johnson 20 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick) — ARK win probability +10.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:11: Randy Bond 34 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +7.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:15: Chris Russell Jr. 16 Yd Interception Return (Randy Bond Kick) — TA&M win probability +15.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:40: Ainias Smith 82 Yd Punt Return (Randy Bond Kick) — TA&M win probability +8.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 6:45ARK 4th & 19 at TA&M 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:00ARK 4th & 6 at TA&M 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    35.0%−4.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:26TA&M 4th & 11 at ARK 24, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:56ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:56TA&M 4th & 2 at ARK 30, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%−1.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:11TA&M 4th & 8 at ARK 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−9.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:20ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:58ARK 4th & 7 at TA&M 32, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.9%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:51TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 34, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:15ARK 4th & 14 at ARK 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:22TA&M 4th & 15 at TA&M 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.8%−3.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:03ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:59TA&M 4th & 9 at ARK 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:40ARK 4th & 25 at ARK 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−1.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:48ARK 4th & 20 at ARK 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:00TA&M 4th & 1 at ARK 1, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 2TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:36TA&M Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:13TA&M Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:54ARK Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:15TA&M Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:40TA&M Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:53ARK Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARKDrive 1FG
16 plays · 42 yds · 8:1532% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.0%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the ARK 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
32.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for no gain to the ARK 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
32.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 14 yds to the ARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
32.0%
KJ Jefferson sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+1
32.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the ARK 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+15
32.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 15 yds to the TA&M 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
32.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 2 yds to the TA&M 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+1
32.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the TA&M 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+10
32.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the TA&M 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
32.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the TA&M 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+7
32.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the TA&M 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-8
32.0%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Edgerrin Cooper for a loss of 8 yards to the TA&M 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 32
+1
32.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the TA&M 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 33
0
32.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaaSimilar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 19
OPP 33
+52
36.0%
Cam Little 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0963% → 66%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.7%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
36.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Max Wright for 7 yds to the TA&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
36.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 6 yds to the TA&M 41Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
36.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the TA&M 43Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+19
36.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 19 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
35.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Le'Veon Moss for 9 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+3
35.5%
Evan Stewart run for 3 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+32
34.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Evan Stewart for 32 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:3035% → 39%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
35.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 15 yds to the ARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
35.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Nathan BaxSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
35.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaaSimilar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+38
35.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 38 yds to the TA&M 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
37.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the TA&M 16Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+5
38.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the TA&M 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
38.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the TA&M 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
38.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the TA&M 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+2
37.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the TA&M 7Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
38.9%
Cam Little 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:3463% → 63%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
37.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 29 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
35.8%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the ARK 43Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
35.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 6 yds to the ARK 37Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+14
35.7%
Amari Daniels run for 14 yds to the ARK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
35.2%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the ARK 24Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
35.4%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jahdae WalkerSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 11
OPP 24
0
36.0%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jahdae WalkerSimilar
Q2 10:26
4TH & 11
OPP 24
+42
36.9%
Randy Bond 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2438% → 36%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
37.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the ARK 40Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-1
38.7%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Walter Nolen for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 39Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
37.0%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaaSimilar
Q2 8:56
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
36.3%
Max Fletcher punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:0063% → 64%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
36.6%
PENALTY A&M False Start (Robinson,Layden) 5 yards from A&M20 to A&M15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+12
36.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Le'Veon Moss for 12 yds to the TA&M 27Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+14
36.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 14 yds to the TA&M 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
35.3%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the TA&M 44Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
35.3%
Max Johnson run for 1 yd to the TA&M 43Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+19
36.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 19 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
35.0%
Max Johnson run for 7 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+1
34.2%
Max Johnson run for 1 yd to the ARK 30Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
35.0%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Noah ThomasSimilar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+49
36.1%
Randy Bond 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0737% → 37%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
37.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the ARK 33Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
37.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the ARK 30Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+5
35.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the ARK 35Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+5
36.0%
Fletcher,Max punt 46 yards to the A&M19 PENALTY A&M Offside 5 yards from ARK35 to ARK40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 0
OWN 40
+1
36.8%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the ARK 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8TD
11 plays · 39 yds · 2:3668% → 78%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
32.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Amari Daniels for 3 yds to the ARK 36Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-5
32.1%
PENALTY A&M False Start (Wright,Max) 5 yards from ARK36 to ARK41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
32.5%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jahdae WalkerSimilar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+15
33.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 15 yds to the ARK 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
31.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 10 yds to the ARK 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
31.2%
Max Johnson run for 1 yd to the ARK 15Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+7
31.2%
Max Johnson run for 7 yds to the ARK 8Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+6
31.5%
Le'Veon Moss run for 6 yds to the ARK 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.7%
Earnest Crownover 2 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Randy Bond Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.2%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the ARK 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-20
36.1%
Lorando Johnson 20 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:4364% → 72%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.1%
Amari Daniels run for 9 yds to the TA&M 34Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
34.9%
Amari Daniels run for 2 yds to the TA&M 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
35.1%
Max Johnson run for 32 yds to the ARK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
32.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Max Wright for 13 yds to the ARK 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
32.6%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the ARK 16Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
32.6%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jahdae WalkerSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+4
33.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 4 yds to the ARK 12Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 3
OPP 12
-5
35.4%
PENALTY A&M False Start (Crownover,Dametrius) 5 yards from ARK12 to ARK17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
28.3%
Randy Bond 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4531% → 30%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
30.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 9 yds to the ARK 36Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 1
OWN 36
0
32.6%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the ARK 36Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+1
31.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the ARK 35Similar
Q3 9:20
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
29.7%
Max Fletcher punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TA&M 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:3871% → 72%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.7%
Rueben Owens run for 4 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
28.0%
Max Johnson run for 6 yds to the TA&M 35 Max Johnson fumbled, recovered by ARK Brad SpenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 14FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4436% → 40%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
35.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the TA&M 32Similar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 7
OPP 32
0
35.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaaSimilar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
33.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
39.7%
Cam Little 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0763% → 63%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
37.3%
Max Johnson run for 7 yds to the TA&M 32Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
35.8%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 33Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
36.5%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 34Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
36.7%
Nik Constantinou punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARK 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 16INT TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3637% → 22%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
37.1%
AJ Green run for 5 yds to the ARK 19Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-16
22.0%
Chris Russell Jr. 16 Yd Interception Return (Randy Bond Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0022% → 19%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
22.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-8
21.5%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Edgerrin Cooper for a loss of 8 yards to the ARK 21Similar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
18.6%
Max Fletcher punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:5379% → 79%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
20.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Le'Veon Moss for 6 yds to the TA&M 39Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+7
19.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 7 yds to the TA&M 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
19.2%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the TA&M 46Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
19.2%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Noah ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
19.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Noah ThomasSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 10
OWN 46
-5
21.3%
PENALTY A&M False Start (Anderson,Bryce) 5 yards from A&M46 to A&M41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 15
OWN 41
+3
20.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 53 yds , Isaiah Sategna returns for 3 yds to the ARK 9 Isaiah Sategna fumbled, recovered by ARK Brad SpenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:1919% → 16%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
19.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the ARK 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
19.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 2 yds to the ARK 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+3
18.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
-1
17.8%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Albert Regis for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 23Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+12
16.0%
Max Fletcher punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TA&M 33 , Ainias Smith returns for 12 yds to the TA&M 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:0482% → 86%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
17.8%
Rueben Owens run for 3 yds to the TA&M 36Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
17.2%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+18
17.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Evan Stewart for 18 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
16.3%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the ARK 43Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
16.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 6 yds to the ARK 37Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+6
16.5%
Le'Veon Moss run for 6 yds to the ARK 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
16.0%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the ARK 30Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
16.1%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Amari DanielsSimilar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
16.4%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jake JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+48
13.6%
Randy Bond 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21PUNT TD
4 plays · -15 yds · 2:1914% → 4%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
14.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the ARK 26Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 14
OWN 26
-9
13.2%
KJ Jefferson sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the ARK 17Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 23
OWN 17
+2
12.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 2 yds to the ARK 15Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 25
OWN 15
+82
4.0%
Ainias Smith 82 Yd Punt Return (Randy Bond Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:524% → 3%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
4.2%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the ARK 37Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
4.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the ARK 35Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-10
4.1%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Enai White for a loss of 10 yards to the ARK 25Similar
Q4 5:48
4TH & 20
OWN 25
+43
3.2%
Max Fletcher punt for 64 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 43 yds to the ARK 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:5098% → 98%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
2.2%
Le'Veon Moss run for 13 yds to the ARK 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
1.9%
Max Johnson run for 3 yds to the ARK 36 Max Johnson fumbled, recovered by ARK Antonio GrierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 24TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:053% → 8%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
2.5%
Isaiah Augustave run for 1 yd to the ARK 37Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+15
2.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Jefferson,KJ pass incomplete short right to Broden,Tyrone PENALTY A&M Pass Interference (Harmon,Deuce) 15 yards from ARK37 to A&M48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
2.6%
Isaiah Augustave run for no gain to the TA&M 48Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
2.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+48
8.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 48 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:5195% → 98%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
5.5%
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd to the ARK 49Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+15
5.1%
Le'Veon Moss run for 15 yds to the ARK 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+30
5.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 30 yds to the ARK 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
4.9%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the ARK 1Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
4.9%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the ARK 1Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
5.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the ARK 1Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.5%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the ARK 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:15
Chris Russell Jr. 16 Yd Interception Return (Randy Bond Kick)
-15.1
TD · Q3 14:54
Lorando Johnson 20 Yd Interception Return (Cam Little Kick)
+10.1
TD · Q2 0:13
Earnest Crownover 2 Yd pass from Max Johnson (Randy Bond Kick)
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com