Try the model
MTSU

Middle Tennessee 10 at Western Kentucky 31

WKU
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2023 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:21 · Tom Ellard punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+16.8Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:34: Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 18 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +2.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:17: Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 8 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +6.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:09: Austin Reed run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro PAT MISSED) — WKU win probability +9.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:03: Frank Peasant run for 16 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:52: Elijah Young 14 Yd Run (Austin Reed Pass to Dalvin Smith for Two-Point Conversion) — WKU win probability +3.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MTSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:21WKU 4th & 13 at WKU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51MTSU 4th & 12 at MTSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:10WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:04MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:11MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:23WKU 4th & 10 at MTSU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:22MTSU 4th & 8 at WKU 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:35WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:58MTSU 4th & 6 at WKU 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:14MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:49WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:59MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.1%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:04WKU 4th & 6 at MTSU 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:58MTSU 4th & 3 at WKU 3, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−7.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:46WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 28, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:13MTSU 4th & 4 at WKU 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−1.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:27WKU 4th & 1 at MTSU 48, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.9%−2.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:46MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 43, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:34WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:17WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:09WKU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:03MTSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:52WKU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 2:3568% → 67%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
67.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the WKU 21Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
67.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 4 yds to the WKU 25Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
67.6%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the WKU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
67.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 10 yds to the WKU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
67.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 7 yds to the WKU 45Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
67.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-15
67.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short right to Corley,Malachi PENALTY WKU Pass Interference 15 yards from WKU45 to WKU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 13
OWN 35
0
67.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to K.D. HutchinsonSimilar
Q1 12:21
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
67.1%
Tom Ellard punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3033% → 33%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
67.3%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the MTSU 20Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
67.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 8 yds to the MTSU 28Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
67.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+8
67.4%
Trey Turk punt for 53 yds , K.D. Hutchinson returns for 8 yds to the WKU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4167% → 67%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
67.3%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the WKU 40Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
67.4%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the WKU 42Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+1
67.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 1 yd to the WKU 41Similar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
66.8%
Tom Ellard punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0633% → 33%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
66.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Holden WillisSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
66.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Kalani NorrisSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+1
67.1%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MTSU 14Similar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 9
OWN 14
0
67.1%
Miles Tillman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the MTSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 0:3067% → 70%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+31
67.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 31 yds to the MTSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
67.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to K.D. HutchinsonSimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
67.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
69.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 18 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2331% → 30%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the MTSU 25Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for no gain to the MTSU 25Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jaiden CredleSimilar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Trey Turk punt for 48 yds , K.D. Hutchinson returns for no gain to the WKU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:4870% → 70%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
69.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Moussa Barry for 14 yds to the WKU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
70.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Moussa BarrySimilar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
69.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the WKU 45 Western Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jimmy Holiday) to the WKU 35Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+8
69.4%
L.T. Sanders run for 8 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+15
69.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 15 yds to the MTSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 5
OPP 37
+10
70.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 10 yds to the MTSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
70.4%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Easton MesserSimilar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
70.4%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
70.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q1 3:23
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
70.2%
Lucas Carneiro 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:0130% → 29%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.1%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
69.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 8 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
69.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass incomplete deep right to Metcalf,Elijah PENALTY WKU Roughing The Passer 15 yards from MTSU38 to WKU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
69.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 4 yds to the MTSU 49Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & 19
OWN 44
+3
70.0%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTSU 47Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 16
OWN 47
+8
70.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 8 yds to the WKU 45Similar
Q1 0:22
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
70.8%
Miles Tillman punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2570% → 70%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
70.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 1 yd to the WKU 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
70.2%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the WKU 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
69.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for no gain to the WKU 17Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 9
OWN 17
+4
69.5%
Tom Ellard punt for 43 yds , Zack Dobson returns for 4 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:3729% → 30%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
70.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 4 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+5
71.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
70.2%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 3 yds to the WKU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+40
70.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 40 yds to the WKU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
69.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the WKU 2Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q2 13:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
69.4%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Kylan Guidry for a loss of 4 yards to the WKU 6Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+5
70.7%
PENALTY WKU Offside (Evans,JaQues) 5 yards from MTSU48 to WKU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
69.7%
Zeke Rankin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:4171% → 80%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.3%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 28Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
71.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 19 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
72.7%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jimmy HolidaySimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
72.5%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jimmy HolidaySimilar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+11
71.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Moussa Barry for 11 yds to the MTSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
73.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+13
72.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 13 yds to the MTSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
73.0%
L.T. Sanders run for 6 yds to the MTSU 19Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 4
OPP 19
0
73.0%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+14
72.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 14 yds to the MTSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
73.0%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the MTSU 8Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
73.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q2 5:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
79.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 8 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:0322% → 21%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
78.1%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
77.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Frank PeasantSimilar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
77.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 6 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
77.5%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTSU 39Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
77.5%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTSU 42Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
77.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 3 yds to the MTSU 39Similar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
79.1%
Trey Turk punt for 45 yds , K.D. Hutchinson returns for no gain to the WKU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:2582% → 83%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
81.9%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd to the WKU 17Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+3
81.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the WKU 25Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
81.5%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
82.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 5 yds to the WKU 32Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+8
82.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 8 yds to the WKU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
83.0%
Austin Reed run for 1 yd to the WKU 41Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
82.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
82.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Moussa BarrySimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
82.8%
Tom Ellard punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:1718% → 17%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
81.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 2 yds to the MTSU 25Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
83.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Kalani Norris for 6 yds Kalani Norris fumbled, recovered by WKU Bryson WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:2385% → 94%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
85.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 9 yds to the MTSU 21Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+20
84.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jimmy Holiday for 20 yds to the MTSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.0%
Austin Reed run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
92.0%
Jaiden Credle run for 23 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:577% → 19%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.6%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
92.2%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
92.3%
Frank Peasant run for 7 yds to the MTSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
92.1%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
91.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 1 yd to the MTSU 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
92.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jaiden CredleSimilar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+6
92.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 6 yds to the WKU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
92.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 6 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
91.6%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the WKU 40Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
91.7%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the WKU 40Similar
Q3 11:59
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+5
92.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas pass intercepted by Stout,Upton at WKU13 PENALTY WKU Offside (Evans,JaQues) 5 yards from WKU40 to WKU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
91.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 6 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+6
91.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 6 yds to the WKU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
91.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 7 yds to the WKU 16Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 3
OPP 16
0
91.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Javonte ShermanSimilar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+16
81.5%
Frank Peasant run for 16 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 3:5986% → 88%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for no gain to the WKU 25Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.4%
PENALTY WKU False Start (Dorsey,Wes) 5 yards from WKU25 to WKU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+16
85.2%
Austin Reed run for 16 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
85.9%
Austin Reed run for 1 yd to the WKU 37Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
85.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Elijah YoungSimilar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-5
85.3%
PENALTY WKU False Start (Dorsey,Wes) 5 yards from WKU37 to WKU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+16
84.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 16 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
86.6%
L.T. Sanders run for 4 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
86.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to K.D. HutchinsonSimilar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
85.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
88.1%
Tom Ellard punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19DOWNS
14 plays · 87 yds · 4:0614% → 14%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
86.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 8 yds to the MTSU 17Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+3
85.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
85.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 3 yds to the MTSU 23Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+20
85.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 20 yds to the MTSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
84.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
83.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Frank PeasantSimilar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+11
84.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 11 yds to the WKU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
82.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 25 yds to the WKU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
81.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 2 yds to the WKU 16Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+8
81.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Vattiato,Nicholas sacked for loss of 4 yards to the WKU20 (Loving,Jayden) PENALTY WKU Face Mask (Loving,Jayden) 8 yards from WKU16 to WKU08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
Q3 5:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Jacob ColemanSimilar
Q3 5:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
82.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds to the WKU 3Similar
Q3 0:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
86.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the WKU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:1290% → 92%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+19
89.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Markese Stepp for 19 yds to the WKU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
92.3%
Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the WKU 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
92.5%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to River HelmsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
92.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
91.5%
Tom Ellard punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21INT
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:0213% → 13%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
87.5%
Frank Peasant run for 13 yds to the MTSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
87.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 6 yds to the MTSU 49Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
86.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:1994% → 94%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
94.0%
K.D. Hutchinson run for 4 yds to the WKU 47Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+8
93.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 8 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
94.2%
Austin Reed pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:1211% → 10%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
89.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 16 yds to the WKU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
88.5%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
88.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
88.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
89.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24TD
13 plays · 57 yds · 5:2195% → 100%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
94.8%
Elijah Young run for 9 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+1
94.9%
Elijah Young run for 1 yd to the MTSU 49Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
94.5%
Austin Reed run for 1 yd to the MTSU 48Similar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+3
95.4%
Austin Reed run for 3 yds to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
95.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Moussa Barry for 11 yds to the MTSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
95.9%
L.T. Sanders run for 2 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+10
95.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 10 yds to the MTSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
95.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Jimmy HolidaySimilar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+8
95.9%
Elijah Young run for 8 yds to the MTSU 14Similar
Q4 5:52
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+14
99.6%
Elijah Young 14 Yd Run (Austin Reed Pass to Dalvin Smith for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25INT
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:381% → 1%
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 15 yds to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
99.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incomplete to Elijah MetcalfSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+8
99.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 8 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+28
99.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 28 yds to the WKU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
98.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 8 yds to the WKU 21Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 2
OPP 21
0
99.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 26Uncategorized
4 plays · 62 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
99.8%
L.T. Sanders run for 4 yds to the WKU 6Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+56
99.8%
L.T. Sanders run for 56 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.8%
L.T. Sanders run for 3 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-1
99.8%
A. Reed takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:09
Austin Reed run for 1 yd for a TD (Lucas Carneiro PAT MISSED)
+9.7
TD · Q3 9:03
Frank Peasant run for 16 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q2 5:17
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 8 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com