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JXST

Jacksonville State 35 at Sam Houston 28

SHSU
2023 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2023 · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
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Win probability · SHSU
modelSHSU aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playSHSU scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:18 · Jadon Cardell punt for 31 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 105Home team on offense+14.8Pregame prior−4.8Garbage-time factor+5.5Score differential+7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Time remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:20: Trapper Pannell 3 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick) — SHSU win probability +12.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:32: Logan Smothers pass complete to Michael Pettway for 31 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK) — JXST win probability +15.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:44: Logan Smothers run for 16 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic PAT MISSED) — JXST win probability +21.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:13: Perry Carter 28 Yd pass from Logan Smothers (Logan Smothers Pass to Quinton Lane for Two-Point Conversion) — JXST win probability +47.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Logan Smothers pass complete to Sean Brown for 24 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK) — JXST win probability +21.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SHSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11JXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 14:25JXST 4th & 10 at JXST 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:44SHSU 4th & 9 at SHSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:08JXST 4th & 10 at JXST 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:38SHSU 4th & 4 at SHSU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:09JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:06SHSU 4th & 2 at SHSU 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:22JXST 4th & 7 at JXST 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:27JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:40SHSU 4th & 2 at JXST 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−2.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:04SHSU 4th & 13 at JXST 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:04JXST 4th & 6 at midfield, down 14
    Close callPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:18SHSU 4th & 9 at SHSU 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−2.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:56SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:00SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:00JXST 4th & 2 at JXST 30, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:35SHSU 4th & 13 at JXST 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%−1.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    80.6%−0.8
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:54JXST 4th & 4 at JXST 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:51SHSU 4th & 5 at SHSU 44, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:11SHSU 4th & 1 at JXST 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−14.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−49.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SHSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3JXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:47JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:10SHSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:37SHSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:20SHSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:32JXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:44JXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    43.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:13JXST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    11.4%−12.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JXSTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3561% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.8%
Logan Smothers run for no gain to the JVST 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
38.8%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
38.8%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
39.1%
Jack Dawson punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4139% → 40%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
39.1%
Noah Smith run for 1 yd to the SHSU 40Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-5
39.1%
Sam Houston Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SHSU 35Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+5
39.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 5 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q1 14:25
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
39.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for no gain to the SHSU 40Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
39.5%
Jadon Cardell punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3660% → 60%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
39.6%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the JVST 12Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
39.7%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
39.8%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:08
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
40.1%
Jack Dawson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Noah Smith at the SHSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3040% → 40%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
40.0%
run for 2 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
40.0%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the SHSU 44Similar
Q1 12:08
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
40.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
40.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 5TD
4 plays · 86 yds · 0:5160% → 62%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
40.3%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+12
40.3%
Malik Jackson run for 12 yds to the JVST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+48
40.3%
Malik Jackson run for 48 yds to the SHSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
38.1%
Malik Jackson run for 26 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3739% → 42%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.8%
John Gentry run for 5 yds to the SHSU 30Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
38.9%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
38.9%
Trapper Pannell run for 10 yds to the SHSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
41.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 56 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:0159% → 58%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.0%
Logan Smothers run for 4 yds to the JVST 29Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
40.9%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
41.2%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Sterling Galban for 9 yds to the JVST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
40.7%
Logan Smothers run for 1 yd to the JVST 39Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
40.7%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+4
41.0%
Logan Smothers run for 4 yds to the JVST 43Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
41.8%
Jack Dawson punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0342% → 42%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
41.7%
John Gentry run for no gain to the SHSU 16Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
41.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Landan Brown for 5 yds to the SHSU 21Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+3
41.3%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 3 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
41.6%
Jadon Cardell punt for 29 yds, downed at the JVST 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 9INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:2759% → 58%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 11
OWN 46
0
41.5%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the JVST 46Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
41.7%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+15
42.1%
Sam Houston Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SHSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
41.1%
Zion Webb run for 1 yd to the SHSU 38Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+3
41.1%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds to the SHSU 35Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
41.6%
Zion Webb pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 38 yds · 1:0244% → 50%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
44.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Shane Johnson for 15 yds to the JVST 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
44.7%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the JVST 22Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+22
49.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 22 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:1552% → 51%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
47.9%
Zion Webb run for 8 yds to the JVST 33Similar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
47.0%
Malik Jackson run for 4 yds to the JVST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
47.5%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
47.6%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds to the JVST 40Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
47.6%
Zion Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:22
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
49.3%
Jack Dawson punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 4:4050% → 64%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
49.5%
Landan Brown run for 1 yd to the SHSU 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+43
49.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 28 yds to the JVST 40 for a 1ST down Jacksonville State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaden Thomas) to the JVST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
51.0%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the JVST 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
50.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 7 yds to the JVST 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
50.5%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the JVST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
51.1%
Noah Smith run for 4 yds to the JVST 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
51.1%
BROWN, Landon rush for a gain of 3 yards to the JSU27 (HALE, Laletia). PENALTY JSU Offsides on PRATER, Darrell enforced 5 yards from the JSU30 to the JSU25 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+6
51.1%
Landan Brown run for 6 yds to the JVST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
51.0%
BROWN, Landon rush for no gain to the JSU19 (DRAKE, Quae). PENALTY Before the snap, JSU Illegal Substitution on WORTH, Larry enforced 5 yards from the JSU19 to the JSU14. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 14
+2
51.0%
Landan Brown run for 2 yds to the JVST 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+8
51.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jax Sherrard for 8 yds to the JVST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
51.0%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the JVST 3Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.7%
Trapper Pannell 3 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5340% → 38%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.8%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the JVST 26Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
59.8%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 4 yds to the JVST 30Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
59.7%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
61.7%
Jack Dawson punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 14MISSED FG
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:3662% → 64%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
62.3%
John Gentry run for no gain to the SHSU 35Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
62.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 17 yds to the JVST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
63.9%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the JVST 47Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
63.8%
John Gentry run for 5 yds to the JVST 42Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+2
63.0%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 2 yds to the JVST 40Similar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+8
62.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 8 yds to the JVST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
63.9%
Noah Smith run for 2 yds to the JVST 30Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-5
63.9%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the JVST 35Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 13
OPP 35
0
62.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 13
OPP 35
+52
63.7%
Colby Sessums 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0036% → 35%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.7%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the JVST 35Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
64.0%
Logan Smothers run for 11 yds to the JVST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
63.0%
Reggion Bennett run for 1 yd to the JVST 47Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
63.2%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+3
64.7%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Sean Brown for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 6
50
0
65.5%
Jack Dawson punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 16END OF HALF
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:0470% → 75%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+7
69.5%
John Gentry run for 7 yds to the SHSU 10Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+3
69.7%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+20
70.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 20 yds to the SHSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
69.7%
Noah Smith run for 3 yds to the SHSU 36Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+9
69.8%
John Gentry run for 9 yds to the SHSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
75.2%
John Gentry run for no gain to the SHSU 45Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
76.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+2
75.0%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the SHSU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 4:3874% → 78%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
74.1%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the SHSU 13Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 13
0
74.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+8
73.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 8 yds to the SHSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
74.5%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+2
74.4%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the SHSU 26Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+6
73.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 6 yds to the SHSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
74.4%
Landan Brown run for 1 yd to the SHSU 33Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
73.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
77.6%
Jadon Cardell punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:4624% → 40%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
76.1%
Anwar Lewis run for 3 yds to the JVST 43Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+15
75.8%
SMOTHERS, Logan pass incomplete intended for LANE, Quinton thrown to the SAM42. PENALTY SAM Pass Interference on FISHER, David enforced 15 yards to the SAM42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
75.0%
Anwar Lewis run for 2 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+4
75.1%
Anwar Lewis run for 4 yds to the SHSU 36Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+5
74.8%
Logan Smothers run for 5 yds to the SHSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
59.6%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Michael Pettway for 31 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 4:3668% → 71%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
68.1%
John Gentry run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 24Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+19
67.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Shane Johnson for 19 yds to the SHSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
70.2%
Noah Smith pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 14 yds to the JVST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
71.0%
John Gentry run for 12 yds to the JVST 31 John Gentry fumbled, recovered by SHSU for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
71.3%
Sam Houston Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SHSU 12Similar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
69.8%
John Gentry run for 8 yds to the SHSU 47Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+1
70.8%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the SHSU 48Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-10
69.5%
GENTRY, John rush for a gain of 3 yards to the JSU49 (LEWIS, Anwar). PENALTY SAM Holding on BEALL, MarKendrick enforced 10 yards from the SAM48 to the SAM38 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+4
67.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 4 yds to the SHSU 42Similar
Q3 3:56
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
70.8%
Jadon Cardell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sterling Galban at the JVST 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:5631% → 36%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
68.7%
Logan Smothers run for a loss of 3 yards to the JVST 12Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+37
69.0%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Michael Pettway for 37 yds to the JVST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
65.0%
Malik Jackson run for 20 yds to the SHSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
62.7%
Sterling Galban run for 10 yds to the SHSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
62.1%
Logan Smothers run for no gain to the SHSU 21Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-4
63.7%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Sean Brown for a loss of 4 yards Sean Brown fumbled, recovered by SHSU Seth MasonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:0075% → 76%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
75.4%
Noah Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 32Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+8
74.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 8 yds to the SHSU 40Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
76.1%
Jax Sherrard run for 5 yds to the SHSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
77.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
76.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
75.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
76.1%
Jadon Cardell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Sterling Galban at the JVST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0028% → 26%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
71.9%
Anwar Lewis run for 1 yd to the JVST 23Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-5
72.1%
Jacksonville State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the JVST 18Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+6
72.5%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Michael Pettway for 6 yds to the JVST 24Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+6
73.2%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Quinton Lane for 6 yds to the JVST 30Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
74.5%
Jack Dawson punt for 49 yds, downed at the SHSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 4:2580% → 83%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
79.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
79.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+17
78.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 17 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
81.3%
Landan Brown run for 1 yd to the SHSU 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+24
81.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 24 yds to the JVST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
82.2%
Landan Brown run for 3 yds to the JVST 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+2
82.5%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the JVST 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-8
81.5%
Trapper Pannell run for a loss of 8 yards to the JVST 40 Trapper Pannell fumbled, recovered by SHSU Trapper PannellSimilar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
82.5%
Jadon Cardell punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4121% → 19%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
78.7%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Perry Carter for 6 yds to the JVST 26Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
77.8%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
79.1%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:54
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
80.7%
Jack Dawson punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 25INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1384% → 84%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
84.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
83.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 26TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:5727% → 50%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
72.8%
Logan Smothers run for 4 yds to the SHSU 27Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+11
72.2%
Malik Jackson run for 11 yds to the SHSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
50.3%
Logan Smothers run for 16 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:5361% → 63%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.3%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
61.6%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the SHSU 31Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
60.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 8 yds to the SHSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
63.2%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 40Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-5
63.1%
Sam Houston Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SHSU 35Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 14
OWN 35
-1
60.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Elijah Sohn for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 34Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+10
58.7%
John Gentry run for 10 yds to the SHSU 44Similar
Q4 4:51
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
62.6%
Jadon Cardell punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 28FUMBLE
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:4059% → 59%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.9%
Logan Smothers run for 2 yds to the JVST 27Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
58.8%
Logan Smothers sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the JVST 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 29TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 0:555% → 58%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.7%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Quinton Lane for 6 yds to the JVST 31Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
94.5%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Quinton Lane for 4 yds to the JVST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.6%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+25
94.9%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Perry Carter for 25 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
92.5%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Perry Carter for 10 yds to the SHSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
90.0%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 2 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
89.5%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+28
41.6%
Perry Carter 28 Yd pass from Logan Smothers (Logan Smothers Pass to Quinton Lane for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 30TD
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:0668% → 69%
Q4 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
68.0%
John Gentry run for 5 yds to the JVST 15Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+13
65.6%
SHOEMAKER, Keegan pass incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Shane broken up by CARTER, Derek at the JSU0. PENALTY JSU Pass Interference on CARTER, Derek enforced 13 yards to the JSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
68.7%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the JVST 1Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+2
68.2%
QB Keeper SHOEMAKER, Keegan rush for a loss of 2 yards to the JSU3 (SWAIN, J-Rock). PENALTY JSU Holding on HALE, Laletia enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards from the JSU1 to the JSU1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.8%
John Gentry run for no gain to the JVST 1Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.3%
John Gentry run for no gain to the JVST 1Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.2%
Keegan Shoemaker run for no gain to the JVST 1Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.7%
Trapper Pannell 1 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick)Similar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
69.1%
Noah Smith run for no gain to the JVST 20 Noah Smith fumbled, recovered by SHSU Noah SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0666% → 63%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
65.7%
Sam Houston Penalty, Delay Of Game (Keegan Shoemaker) to the JVST 49Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
62.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 32TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 81%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
41.1%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the SHSU 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+24
19.4%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Sean Brown for 24 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 33Uncategorized
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0028% → 22%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
28.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 1 yd to the JVST 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
27.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
21.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:13
Perry Carter 28 Yd pass from Logan Smothers (Logan Smothers Pass to Quinton Lane for Two-Point Conversion)
-47.9
TD · Q4 8:44
Logan Smothers run for 16 yds for a TD (Alen Karajic PAT MISSED)
-21.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-21.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com