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UK

Kentucky 45 at Vanderbilt 28

VAN
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:49 · Wilson Berry punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the VAN 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Home team on offense−13.1Pregame prior−15.3Score differential−7.1Garbage-time factor−4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:56: Ray Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +5.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:20: Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK) — VAN win probability +5.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:44: Ray Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +9.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:35: Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 22 yds for a TD Kentucky Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dane Key) to the VAN 0 (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +3.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:00: Patrick Smith 2 Yd Run (AJ Swann Pass to Quincy Skinner Jr. for Two-Point Conversion) — VAN win probability +4.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 9 of 10UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:33VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:32VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:00VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:45VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:32UK 4th & 1 at UK 20, up 21
    Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:18VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:53UK 4th & 10 at VAN 10, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    87.6%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:51VAN 4th & 9 at UK 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:58UK 4th & 10 at UK 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:38UK 4th & 10 at UK 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:04VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−1.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:25VAN 4th & 7 at UK 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−4.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:49UK 4th & 20 at UK 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−3.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:15VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 48, down 18
    Close callPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:09UK 4th & 20 at VAN 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:23VAN 4th & 10 at UK 10, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:51UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:14UK Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:56UK Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:20VAN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:44UK Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:35UK Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:00VAN Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:15UK Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:23VAN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:2718% → 19%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
18.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 10 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
18.4%
Patrick Smith run for 1 yd to the VAN 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
18.4%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
18.4%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
19.1%
Matthew Hayball punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 3:4281% → 81%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
19.1%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the UK 20Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+15
19.1%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Targeting on MAHONEY, Jaylen enforced (Jaylen Mahoney) to the UK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
19.0%
Barion Brown run for 4 yds to the VAN 47Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
19.0%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the VAN 45Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+9
19.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 9 yds to the VAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
19.0%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the VAN 36Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
19.4%
JuTahn McClain run for 36 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3INT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3720% → 19%
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
19.8%
AJ Swann pass complete to London Humphreys for 14 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
19.9%
SWANN, AJ pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HUMPHREYS, London thrown to the KEN25. PENALTY VAN Personal Foul on HANSEN, Gunnar enforced 15 yards from the VAN39 to the VAN24 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 25
OWN 24
+5
19.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the VAN 29Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 20
OWN 29
-29
18.5%
Maxwell Hairston 29 Yd Interception Return (Alex Raynor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4219% → 19%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.5%
Patrick Smith run for no gain to the VAN 25Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Patrick Smith for 1 yd to the VAN 26Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
18.4%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
18.6%
Matthew Hayball punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5INT
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:5182% → 82%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
18.1%
Ray Davis run for 12 yds to the UK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
17.8%
Devin Leary pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4119% → 19%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
18.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 10Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
18.6%
Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the VAN 10Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
18.5%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
18.6%
Matthew Hayball punt for 59 yds, downed at the UK 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 2:0482% → 87%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
17.9%
Ray Davis run for 12 yds to the UK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
17.7%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 43Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+55
17.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 55 yds to the VAN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
17.7%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.6%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1114% → 13%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
14.2%
AJ Swann pass complete to London Humphreys for 8 yds to the VAN 33Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
14.4%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
14.4%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the VAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
14.4%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
13.5%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the VAN 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
13.6%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
13.4%
Matthew Hayball punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1388% → 88%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
12.0%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the UK 16Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+4
12.0%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the UK 20 Ray Davis fumbled, recovered by UK Ray DavisSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
12.2%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 20Similar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
11.6%
Wilson Berry punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1413% → 12%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
12.8%
Jayden McGowan run for 7 yds to the VAN 39Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-5
13.2%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VAN 34Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
12.8%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
12.7%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
12.3%
Matthew Hayball punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Barion Brown at the UK 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11FG
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:2589% → 91%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
10.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 9 yds to the UK 25Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 1
OWN 25
0
10.8%
JuTahn McClain run for no gain to the UK 25Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+11
11.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 11 yds to the UK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
10.7%
JuTahn McClain run for 9 yds to the UK 45Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+4
9.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 4 yds to the UK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
9.5%
JuTahn McClain run for 3 yds to the VAN 48Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
9.4%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+22
9.6%
Devin Leary run for 22 yds to the VAN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
9.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Brenden Bates for 16 yds to the VAN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
9.2%
JuTahn McClain run for no gain to the VAN 10Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
9.2%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
9.5%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
9.5%
Alex Raynor 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12FG
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:0211% → 11%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
11.4%
Kentucky Penalty, Personal Foul (Zion Childress) to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+28
12.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to Logan Kyle for 28 yds to the UK 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
12.9%
AJ Swann run for 1 yd to the UK 23Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
12.9%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
12.4%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
11.4%
Jacob Borcila 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5392% → 93%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
8.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 19Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+6
7.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Anthony Brown-Stephens for 6 yds to the UK 25Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
8.0%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
7.4%
Wilson Berry punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the VAN 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 1:3811% → 19%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
11.2%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
11.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 9 yds to the UK 48Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
11.7%
Patrick Smith run for 4 yds to the UK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
11.7%
SWANN, AJ pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SHEPPARD, Will broken up by HAIRSTON, Maxwell at the KEN10. PENALTY KEN Pass Interference on HAIRSTON, Maxwell enforced 15 yards to the KEN29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
12.2%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the UK 27Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-10
12.0%
SWANN, AJ pass deep to the left complete for 27 yards to SHEPPARD, Will caught at the KEN0 and advanced to the KEN0, TOUCHDOWN VAN, score nullified by penalty, clock 00:47 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY VAN Holding on ASHMORE, Bradley enforced 10 yards from the KEN27 to the KEN37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 18
OPP 37
+22
11.1%
AJ Swann pass complete to Justin Ball for 22 yds to the UK 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
11.7%
SWANN, AJ pass to the right incomplete intended for HUMPHREYS, London broken up by HAIRSTON, Maxwell at the KEN0. PENALTY KEN Face mask on WALLACE, Trevin enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the KEN15 to the KEN8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
18.6%
Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.3%
Kneel down by LEARY, Devin at KEN24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2285% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
15.0%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
15.0%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
15.5%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:38
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
15.6%
Wilson Berry punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3416% → 15%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
15.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Justin Ball for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 21Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
15.6%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:38
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
15.2%
AJ Swann run for no gain to the VAN 21Similar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
15.1%
Matthew Hayball punt for 62 yds, downed at the UK 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:4885% → 85%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
14.6%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 17Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
14.7%
Devin Leary pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5117% → 20%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
17.3%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the UK 13Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
17.3%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
16.7%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+32
19.6%
Jacob Borcila 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:3681% → 80%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
19.0%
Devin Leary sacked by Darren Agu and Yilanan Ouattara for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 21Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-6
19.3%
Devin Leary run for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 15Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
19.7%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
19.6%
Wilson Berry punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the VAN 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0220% → 19%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
19.6%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
18.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 4 yds to the UK 48Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-50
18.9%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Personal Foul (Gunnar Hansen) to the VAN 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 2:0384% → 93%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
15.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 4 yds to the VAN 7Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
15.7%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the VAN 3Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+2
16.1%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the VAN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.7%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:2210% → 9%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
9.7%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Kevo Wesley) to the VAN 15Similar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+1
9.7%
Patrick Smith run for 1 yd to the VAN 16Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+16
9.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 16 yds to the VAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
9.9%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
9.7%
Patrick Smith run for 7 yds to the VAN 39Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+4
10.4%
AJ Swann run for 4 yds to the VAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
10.7%
AJ Swann sacked by Deone Walker and Darrion Henry-Young for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 41Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+7
10.1%
Patrick Smith run for 7 yds to the VAN 48Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
10.6%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:15
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
8.9%
Matthew Hayball punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 6:4095% → 100%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
5.0%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-5
5.0%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 7Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 15
OWN 7
+15
5.1%
LEARY, Devin pass to the right incomplete intended for DINGLE, Jordan thrown to the KEN15; QB hurried by CAPERS, Myles. PENALTY VAN Face mask on CAPERS, Myles enforced 15 yards from the KEN7 to the KEN22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
4.9%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-5
4.4%
LEARY, Devin pass to the right complete for 9 yards to KEY, Dane caught at the KEN29 and advanced to the KEN30 (PATTERSON, Kane), clock 00:00. PENALTY KEN Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the KEN21 to the KEN16 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 16
0
4.7%
LEARY, Devin pass to the left complete for 18 yards to ROBINSON, Tayvion caught at the KEN13 and advanced to the KEN34 (HOWSE IV, John), out of bounds. PENALTY KEN Holding on COX, Marques enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the KEN16 to the KEN10 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 10
+38
4.7%
Ray Davis run for 38 yds to the UK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
4.0%
MCCLAIN, JuTahn rush to the right for a loss of 2 yards to the KEN46 (CLIFTON, Nate). PENALTY KEN Holding on FORD, Courtland enforced 10 yards from the KEN48 to the KEN38 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 38
-1
4.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 21
OWN 37
+13
4.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
50
+12
4.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 12 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
3.9%
JuTahn McClain run for 16 yds to the VAN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
0.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 22 yds for a TD Kentucky Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dane Key) to the VAN 0 (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 25TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:280% → 5%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
0.4%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
0.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 3 yds to the VAN 37Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+11
0.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to London Humphreys for 11 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+39
0.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Gamarion Carter for 39 yds to the UK 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
0.4%
Patrick Smith run for 4 yds to the UK 9Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
0.4%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+7
0.3%
SWANN, AJ pass to the left incomplete intended for SHEPPARD, Will broken up by WEAVER, J.J. at the KEN0. PENALTY KEN Pass Interference on HAIRSTON, Maxwell enforced 7 yards to the KEN2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.0%
Patrick Smith 2 Yd Run (AJ Swann Pass to Quincy Skinner Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:4696% → 97%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.3%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the UK 29Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+37
4.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 37 yds to the VAN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
3.8%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-10
3.8%
SUMO-KARNGBAYE, Demie rush up the middle for a gain of 16 yards to the VAN18 (BETTS-PAULEY, Dylan;AGU, Darren). PENALTY KEN Holding on COX, Eli enforced 10 yards from the VAN34 to the VAN44. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 20
OPP 44
0
3.9%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for no gain to the VAN 44Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 20
OPP 44
0
3.9%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 20
OPP 44
0
3.1%
Wilson Berry punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 27INT TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:543% → 1%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
2.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 11 yds to the VAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
2.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Kamrean Johnson for 9 yds to the VAN 40Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-54
0.8%
Maxwell Hairston 54 Yd Interception Return (Alex Raynor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 28TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:521% → 2%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to Logan Kyle for 5 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
0.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
0.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 6 yds to the VAN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.7%
AJ Swann pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
0.7%
Sedrick Alexander run for 8 yds to the VAN 48Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
0.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the UK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
0.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to Logan Kyle for 4 yds to the UK 44Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+21
0.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 21 yds to the UK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
0.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chase Gillespie for 7 yds to the UK 16Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+6
0.9%
Chase Gillespie run for 6 yds to the UK 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.9%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.9%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.6%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
1.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Kamrean Johnson for 10 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.1%
Kneel down by LEARY, Devin at KEN24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:44
Ray Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
-9.4
TD · Q2 0:20
Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q1 1:56
Ray Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com