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DUKE

Duke 41 at UConn 7

CONN
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:54 · Todd Pelino 45 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Pregame prior−25.9Home team on offense−40.5Score differential−21.9Garbage-time factor−10.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:16: Jordan Waters 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick) — DUKE win probability +0.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 12:42: Todd Pelino 50 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +0.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:25: Jordan Waters run for 10 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +3.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:55: Riley Leonard run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +2.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: Todd Pelino 40 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:39CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16DUKE 4th & 8 at CONN 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:14CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 15, tied
    Close callPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:14CONN 4th & 12 at CONN 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 4 at CONN 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    87.1%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:42DUKE 4th & 14 at CONN 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:58CONN 4th & 22 at CONN 16, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:44CONN 4th & 21 at CONN 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:11DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 37, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:34CONN 4th & 2 at CONN 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:39DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 25, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:37CONN 4th & 20 at DUKE 24, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:54DUKE 4th & 9 at CONN 27, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:08CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 26, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:17CONN 4th & 4 at DUKE 47, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:01DUKE 4th & 1 at CONN 44, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:58CONN 4th & 8 at DUKE 31, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:55DUKE 4th & 12 at DUKE 29, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 6:16DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:25DUKE Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:55DUKE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:13DUKE Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:01DUKE Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:12CONN Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:216% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
5.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 6 yds to the CONN 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
5.6%
Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the CONN 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
5.6%
Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the CONN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
5.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
5.6%
Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the CONN 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+1
5.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Cameron Ross for 1 yd to the CONN 41Similar
Q1 11:39
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
6.7%
George Caratan punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2393% → 93%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
6.6%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 48Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+3
6.6%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the CONN 49Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
6.6%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
7.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-5
7.2%
HOUSTON, Devontae rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the UCO13 (DILLON, Cam). PENALTY UCO Holding on HAYNES, Christian enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the UCO8 to the UCO4 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:027% → 8%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+2
7.2%
Devontae Houston run for 2 yds to the CONN 6Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 12
OWN 6
0
7.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 12
OWN 6
+9
7.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 9 yds to the CONN 15Similar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
7.7%
punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:5892% → 93%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
7.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the CONN 38Similar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
7.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 16 yds to the CONN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
7.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
7.5%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the CONN 1Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.3%
Jordan Waters 1 Yd Run (Todd Pelino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:548% → 8%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
7.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Kevens Clercius for 4 yds to the CONN 39Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
7.8%
Victor Rosa run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
50
-4
7.9%
Victor Rosa run for a loss of 4 yards to the CONN 46Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+2
7.6%
Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the CONN 48Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
7.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
7.9%
George Caratan punt for 48 yds, downed at the DUKE 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6FG
16 plays · 63 yds · 6:3292% → 90%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
8.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiah Hasley for 5 yds to the DUKE 9Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+2
8.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 2 yds to the DUKE 11Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 3
OWN 11
0
8.2%
Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) to the DUKE 6Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 8
OWN 6
+17
8.2%
Riley Leonard run for 17 yds to the DUKE 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
8.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 10 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
7.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 10 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
7.8%
LEONARD, Riley pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MOORE, Jordan thrown to the UCO20. PENALTY UCO Pass Interference on ARCHIE, Armauni enforced 15 yards to the UCO42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
7.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 4 yds to the CONN 38Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
7.7%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+2
8.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the CONN 36Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+7
8.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the CONN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
8.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the CONN 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
8.5%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the CONN 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-10
8.6%
LEONARD, Riley pass up the middle complete for 10 yards to DALMOLIN, Nicky caught at the UCO13 and advanced to the UCO13 (DIXON-WILLIAMS, Malik). PENALTY DUK Holding on MONK, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the UCO23 to the UCO33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 33
0
8.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+50
9.6%
Todd Pelino 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -15 yds · 0:129% → 9%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-15
8.8%
Bryan Domino run for a loss of 15 yards to the CONN 10 Bryan Domino fumbled, recovered by DUKE Nick Morris Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
5.7%
Jordan Waters run for 10 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 3:207% → 7%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
6.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 9 yds to the CONN 26Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+2
7.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the CONN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
7.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to James Burns for a loss of 3 yards to the CONN 25Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+2
6.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Geordon Porter for 2 yds to the CONN 27Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 11
OWN 27
-11
6.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked by Aeneas Peebles for a loss of 11 yards to the CONN 16Similar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 22
OWN 16
0
7.0%
George Caratan punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:0394% → 96%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
5.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
5.8%
Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the CONN 41Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+11
5.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 11 yds to the CONN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
5.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 15 yds to the CONN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
5.8%
MOORE, Jaquez rush up the middle for a gain of 9 yards to the UCO6 (MOLETTE III, Lee;BELL, Malcolm). PENALTY DUK Holding on MCINTYRE, Maurice enforced 10 yards from the UCO15 to the UCO25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 20
OPP 25
0
5.8%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 20
OPP 25
+2
5.8%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the CONN 23 Riley Leonard fumbled, recovered by DUKE Graham BartonSimilar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 18
OPP 23
+20
5.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Waters for 20 yds to the CONN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
5.7%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the CONN 3Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
3.7%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 2:115% → 5%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.3%
Victor Rosa run for 3 yds to the CONN 28Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
5.3%
Victor Rosa run for 8 yds to the CONN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
5.5%
Cameron Ross run for a loss of 6 yards to the CONN 25Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 21
OWN 25
0
4.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 21
OWN 25
0
4.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 21
OWN 25
0
4.6%
George Caratan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalon Calhoun at the DUKE 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3396% → 96%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
3.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for 1 yd to the DUKE 38Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-1
3.9%
Jordan Waters run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 37Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
4.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
3.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:375% → 5%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
4.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Cameron Ross for 5 yds to the CONN 27Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
4.7%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+3
4.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Cameron Ross for 3 yds to the CONN 30Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
4.5%
George Caratan punt for 30 yds, downed at the DUKE 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:3497% → 99%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
3.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 6 yds to the DUKE 46Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+9
3.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 9 yds to the CONN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
2.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 13 yds to the CONN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
2.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 10 yds to the CONN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
2.5%
Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the CONN 17Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+35
2.5%
Todd Pelino 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+40
1.5%
Todd Pelino 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2198% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
2.1%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
2.2%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:39
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
2.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:022% → 1%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
1.5%
Victor Rosa run for 5 yds to the CONN 33Similar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+39
1.4%
Victor Rosa run for 39 yds to the DUKE 28 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Jaylen Stinson) to the DUKE 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
1.7%
Victor Rosa run for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 19Similar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 15
OPP 19
0
1.6%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:39
3RD & 15
OPP 19
-5
1.5%
Ta'Quan Roberson sacked by Aeneas Peebles and R.J. Oben for a loss of 5 yards to the DUKE 24Similar
Q3 12:37
4TH & 20
OPP 24
+42
1.4%
Joe McFadden 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:4398% → 99%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
1.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the DUKE 26Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+19
1.6%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 19 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
1.5%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the DUKE 45Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
1.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 12 yds to the CONN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
1.5%
QB Keeper LEONARD, Riley rush to the left for no gain to the UCO43 (MCCARTHY, Collin), out of bounds. PENALTY UCO Unnecessary Roughness on JONES, Durante enforced 15 yards from the UCO43 to the UCO28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
1.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 3 yds to the CONN 25Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-5
1.5%
Duke Penalty, False Start (Jake Hornibrook) to the CONN 30Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
1.5%
Riley Leonard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+3
1.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 3 yds to the CONN 27Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
1.4%
Todd Pelino 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:411% → 1%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
1.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the CONN 30Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+26
0.9%
DeWayne Carter 26 Yd Fumble Return (Todd Pelino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
0.9%
Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the CONN 26Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
0.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
0.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
0.7%
George Caratan punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 3:0799% → 100%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
0.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 15 yds to the CONN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
0.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 1 yd to the CONN 44Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-2
0.7%
Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 46Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+24
0.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 24 yds to the CONN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
0.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 22 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:440% → 0%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.4%
Victor Rosa run for no gain to the CONN 25Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
0.3%
Victor Rosa run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 23Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+24
0.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to James Burns for 24 yds to the CONN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
0.4%
Camryn Edwards run for 4 yds to the DUKE 49Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+2
0.3%
Camryn Edwards run for 2 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
0.3%
Camryn Edwards run for no gain to the DUKE 47Similar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
0.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
0.4%
Peyton Jones run for 5 yds to the CONN 48Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
0.4%
Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the CONN 46Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
0.4%
Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the CONN 44Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
0.4%
Peyton Jones run for no gain to the CONN 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 25 yds · 5:030% → 0%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
0.2%
Camryn Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 46Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+5
0.2%
Camryn Edwards run for 5 yds to the DUKE 49Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+6
0.2%
Camryn Edwards run for 6 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
0.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
0.2%
Camryn Edwards run for 10 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
0.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
0.2%
Camryn Edwards run for no gain to the DUKE 31Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 8
OPP 31
0
0.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
0.2%
Camryn Edwards run for 2 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
0.2%
Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 32Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
0.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds to the DUKE 37Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 4
OWN 37
-5
0.2%
Duke Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 32Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 9
OWN 32
-5
0.2%
Duke Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 27Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+2
0.2%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 61 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 25TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 3:430% → 0%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
0.1%
Camryn Edwards run for 4 yds to the CONN 21Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+6
0.1%
Camryn Edwards run for 6 yds to the CONN 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
0.1%
Camryn Edwards run for 2 yds to the CONN 29Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+16
0.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 16 yds to the CONN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
0.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
0.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Camryn Edwards for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 5
50
+17
0.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 17 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
0.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Kylish Hicks for 16 yds to the DUKE 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
0.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Brett Buckman for 15 yds to the DUKE 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson run for 2 yds for a TD (Noe Ruelas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
0.1%
Travis Bates run for no gain to the CONN 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:25
Jordan Waters run for 10 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-3.1
TD · Q2 4:55
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
-2
FG · Q2 0:00
Todd Pelino 40 yd FG GOOD
-1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com