Try the model
WKU

Western Kentucky 24 at Troy 27

TROY
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:56 · Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 5 yds to the WKU 22 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior+12.8Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:00: Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 40 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +13.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:37: Kimani Vidal run for 19 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +11.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:54: Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 22 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +13.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 5:37: Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK) — TROY win probability +15.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:29: Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 12 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +25.8 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 7 of 8WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 12:56WKU 4th & 7 at TROY 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:56TROY 4th & 3 at WKU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:55TROY 4th & 13 at WKU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:36WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 20, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:36TROY 4th & 4 at WKU 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    53.4%−1.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:09TROY 4th & 8 at WKU 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−7.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:54WKU 4th & 15 at WKU 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:06TROY 4th & 19 at TROY 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−2.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:30WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−1.8
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:27TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−3.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:55TROY 4th & 8 at WKU 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−1.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−12.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:07WKU 4th & 6 at TROY 6, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−12.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:52TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 19, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.5 ptsPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%−5.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:33WKU 4th & 14 at TROY 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−2.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−1.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:00WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 29, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 1:35WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:00TROY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:37TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:54WKU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:37TROY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:29WKU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.6 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.0%−2.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:0437% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
63.2%
Elijah Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKU 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
63.2%
REED, Austin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CORLEY, Malachi thrown to the WKU40. PENALTY TRO Pass Interference on DAVIS, Irshaad enforced 15 yards to the WKU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
63.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 6 yds to the WKU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+8
63.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Aaron Key for 8 yds to the TROY 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
63.2%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
63.2%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the TROY 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
63.2%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
63.2%
Tom Ellard punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2FUMBLE
16 plays · 76 yds · 6:4263% → 64%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
63.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TROY 17Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+9
63.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 9 yds to the TROY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
63.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
63.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 29Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+23
63.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 23 yds to the WKU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
63.5%
Damien Taylor run for 2 yds to the WKU 46Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
63.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+12
63.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 12 yds to the WKU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
63.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the WKU 31Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
63.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+4
63.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the WKU 27Similar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+5
63.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 5 yds to the WKU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
63.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+9
63.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 9 yds to the WKU 13Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+3
63.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the WKU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
64.2%
Gunnar Watson sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 26 yds · 4:3938% → 44%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
61.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the TROY 22Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
61.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the TROY 19Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+3
61.8%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the TROY 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
61.5%
Austin Reed run for 5 yds to the TROY 11Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+1
61.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to L.T. Sanders for 1 yd to the TROY 10Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+3
55.8%
K.D. Hutchinson 3 Yd Run (Lucas Carneiro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:4057% → 56%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.4%
Damien Taylor run for no gain to the TROY 25Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+38
57.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 38 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
58.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the WKU 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-9
59.2%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Niko Cooper for a loss of 9 yards to the WKU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 40
0
57.3%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
55.9%
Robert Cole punt for 29 yds, downed at the WKU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1944% → 44%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
56.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 8 yds to the WKU 19Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 2
OWN 19
0
55.5%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+1
56.0%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the WKU 20Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
56.0%
Tom Ellard punt for 44 yds, downed at the TROY 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 6:2756% → 59%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
56.1%
Jarris Williams run for 2 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-5
56.3%
Troy Penalty, False Start (Grant Betts) to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+8
55.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 8 yds to the TROY 41Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+16
56.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 16 yds to the WKU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
57.6%
Asa Martin run for 4 yds to the WKU 39Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+2
57.7%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the WKU 37Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
57.5%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the WKU 37Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+15
56.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 15 yds to the WKU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
58.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 12 yds to the WKU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
58.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
55.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the WKU 8Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
54.5%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
58.7%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:1544% → 42%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Aaron Key for 4 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
55.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 5 yds to the WKU 34Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
55.4%
Western Kentucky Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Davion Ervin-Poindexter) to the WKU 29Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
56.4%
Austin Reed sacked by Javon Solomon and Phillip Lee for a loss of 9 yards to the WKU 20Similar
Q2 3:54
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
57.6%
Tom Ellard punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 38Similar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
57.8%
WATSON, Gunnar pass to the left complete for 8 yards to LEWIS, Chris caught at the TRO46 and advanced to the TRO46, End of Play. PENALTY TRO Holding on GRAHAM, Derrick enforced 10 yards from the TRO38 to the TRO28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:3757% → 56%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+5
56.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 5 yds to the TROY 33Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+6
56.4%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the TROY 39Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+6
55.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 6 yds Deshon Stoudemire fumbled, recovered by WKU Kylan GuidrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:1649% → 49%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
50.6%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+14
50.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 14 yds Malachi Corley fumbled, recovered by TROY Keyshawn SwansonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5656% → 56%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
56.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 15 yds to the TROY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
57.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
58.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 19
OWN 37
0
53.1%
Robert Cole punt for 50 ydsSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-11
56.1%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Deante McCray for a loss of 11 yards to the TROY 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2749% → 48%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
51.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 6 yds to the WKU 19Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 4
OWN 19
0
50.6%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
51.7%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
52.5%
Tom Ellard punt for 38 yds , returns for no gain to the TROY 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 0:3056% → 69%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
56.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 9 yds to the WKU 47Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 1
OPP 47
0
57.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+7
57.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the WKU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
57.7%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Deante McCray for 0 yards to the WKU 40Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
69.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 40 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3365% → 64%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the TROY 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-4
63.2%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Terrion Thompson for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 23Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
63.6%
Robert Cole punt for 38 yds , returns for no gain to the WKU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:5069% → 80%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
68.8%
Chris Lewis run for 1 yd to the WKU 37Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+2
68.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the WKU 35Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+16
68.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 16 yds to the WKU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
80.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 19 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:3623% → 39%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
77.5%
L.T. Sanders run for 1 yd to the WKU 24Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+17
77.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 17 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
76.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 23 yds to the TROY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
75.4%
Malachi Corley run for 6 yds to the TROY 30Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+4
74.0%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the TROY 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
74.0%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
74.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 4 yds to the TROY 22Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+22
60.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 22 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:5966% → 78%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
66.5%
Western Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Upton Stout) to the TROY 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
67.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 5 yds to the TROY 44Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
69.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
69.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Damien Taylor for 4 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+32
69.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 32 yds to the WKU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
70.7%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the WKU 10Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+6
70.7%
Damien Taylor run for 6 yds to the WKU 4Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 3
OPP 4
-5
69.4%
Troy Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the WKU 9Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
69.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
77.5%
Scott Taylor Renfroe 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17FG
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:4829% → 35%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
70.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 31 yds to the TROY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
66.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 6 yds to the TROY 38Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+35
66.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 35 yds to the TROY 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
64.5%
Western Kentucky Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Davion Ervin-Poindexter) to the TROY 8Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
64.4%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
64.4%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
66.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds to the TROY 6Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
65.3%
Lucas Carneiro 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0770% → 68%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
70.3%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the TROY 9Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+5
69.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 5 yds to the TROY 14Similar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+5
68.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 5 yds to the TROY 19Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
68.1%
Robert Cole punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1936% → 30%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
63.9%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+13
65.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 13 yds to the TROY 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
63.1%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-4
63.1%
Austin Reed run for a loss of 4 yards to the TROY 44Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 14
OPP 44
0
67.9%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
69.8%
Tom Ellard punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jabre Barber at the TROY 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 4:5672% → 93%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+30
71.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 30 yds to the TROY 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
74.6%
Damien Taylor run for 7 yds to the TROY 48Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
75.3%
Damien Taylor run for 5 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
75.8%
Damien Taylor run for 1 yd to the WKU 46Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-4
75.6%
Gunnar Watson run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by TROY Gunnar Watson , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 13
50
+29
71.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 29 yds to the WKU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
76.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the WKU 13Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+2
76.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the WKU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
76.8%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
92.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:378% → 7%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 4 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
90.9%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
91.8%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
92.9%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:5793% → 93%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
93.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the WKU 27Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+27
93.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 27 yds Kimani Vidal fumbled, recovered by WKUSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:348% → 35%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
92.5%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 22Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+11
92.5%
REED, Austin pass to the right incomplete intended for KEY, Aaron thrown to the WKU31. PENALTY TRO Pass Interference on STEWARD, Reddy enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the WKU33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
91.6%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+16
91.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 16 yds to the WKU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
90.5%
REED, Austin pass to the right complete for -4 yards to ERVIN-POINDEXTER, Davion caught at the WKU45 and advanced to the WKU45 (MCDONALD, Jayden). PENALTY TRO Roughing the Passer on JIBUNOR, Richard enforced 15 yards from the WKU49 to the TRO36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
90.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Moussa Barry for 24 yds to the TROY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
64.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 12 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24END OF GAME
10 plays · 47 yds · 2:2985% → 97%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.9%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TROY 28Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+28
85.4%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 28 yds to the WKU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
91.2%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKU 45Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+9
92.1%
Gunnar Watson run for 9 yds to the WKU 36Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+9
92.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by WATSON, Gunnar at WKU28 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:29
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 12 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
-25.8
TD · Q4 5:37
Kimani Vidal run for 11 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
+15.8
TD · Q3 7:54
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 22 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
-13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com