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MSST

Mississippi State 30 at South Carolina 37

SC
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Williams-Brice Stadium
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Win probability · SC
modelSC aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playSC scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:04 · Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin Robinson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Pregame prior+1.9Home team on offense+19.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.8Garbage-time factor+6.4Score differential+6.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:02: Jo'Quavious Marks run for 7 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +16.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:50: Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 75 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — SC win probability +11.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:26: Mike Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +14.8 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q3 2:00: Kyle Ferrie 23 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +11.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:36: Mario Anderson run for 9 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK) — SC win probability +16.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 12:04MSST 4th & 12 at SC 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    33.3%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:08MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:05SC 4th & 1 at MSST 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−1.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:55SC 4th & 7 at SC 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:07SC 4th & 3 at SC 24, up 7
    Close callPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:45SC 4th & 17 at SC 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−3.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:19MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:00MSST 4th & 2 at SC 5, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%−2.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−13.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:35SC 4th & 17 at MSST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−6.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−16.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:13MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:04MSST 4th & 7 at SC 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−0.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:55SC 4th & 8 at SC 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:55SC 4th & 8 at SC 46, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:55MSST 4th & 10 at SC 46, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−0.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    8.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:13MSST 4th & 4 at SC 29, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.1%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:46SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:53SC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:39MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:02MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:38SC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:50SC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:26MSST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:36SC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:5631% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.7%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MSST 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+5
68.7%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+33
68.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 33 yds to the SC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
68.7%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the SC 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+3
68.7%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the SC 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
68.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'Quavious MarksSimilar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
68.4%
Andrew Osteen punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 2TD
8 plays · 98 yds · 2:1868% → 70%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
68.3%
Dakereon Joyner run for 1 yd to the SC 3Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+2
68.2%
Dakereon Joyner run for 2 yds to the SC 5Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+13
68.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 13 yds to the SC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
68.3%
Dakereon Joyner run for no gain to the SC 18Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
68.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for 6 yds to the SC 24Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+76
69.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 76 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3830% → 30%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
69.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
69.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 10 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
69.5%
Will Rogers run for 7 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
69.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+1
69.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 1 yd to the MSST 45Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
70.3%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 4TD
20 plays · 99 yds · 7:1570% → 80%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
70.3%
Mario Anderson run for 3 yds to the SC 4Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+9
70.3%
Mario Anderson run for 9 yds to the SC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
70.5%
Mario Anderson run for 3 yds to the SC 16Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+11
70.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 11 yds to the SC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
70.5%
Mario Anderson run for 2 yds to the SC 29Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
70.5%
Mario Anderson run for 3 yds to the SC 32Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+15
70.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Rattler,Spencer sacked for loss of 3 yards to the S. Car29 (Watson,Nathaniel) PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (Watson,Nathaniel) 15 yards from S. Car32 to S. Car47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
71.1%
Dakereon Joyner run for 7 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
71.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Luke Doty for 4 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
71.2%
Dakereon Joyner run for 2 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+6
71.1%
Spencer Rattler run for 6 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+1
71.0%
Dakereon Joyner run for 1 yd to the MSST 33Similar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+5
73.8%
Mario Anderson run for 5 yds to the MSST 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
74.7%
Mario Anderson run for 5 yds to the MSST 23Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+1
74.9%
Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the MSST 22Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 22
0
74.5%
Mario Anderson run for no gain to the MSST 22Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+5
73.9%
PENALTY MSU Offside (Watson,Nathaniel) 5 yards from MSU22 to MSU17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
79.9%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 17 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:1425% → 29%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+65
71.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 65 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4475% → 74%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.6%
Dakereon Joyner run for 5 yds to the SC 30Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
74.7%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Dakereon Joyner for no gain to the SC 30Similar
Q2 14:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
74.2%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 2 yards to the SC 28Similar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+15
74.1%
Kai Kroeger punt for 49 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 15 yds to the MSST 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7INT
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:1529% → 28%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
71.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+47
71.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 47 yds to the SC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
69.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the SC 15Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
69.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 6 yds to the SC 9Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-1
71.6%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 9 yds Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryland Goede) to the SC 12Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
71.6%
Will Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:3376% → 75%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
75.6%
Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the SC 3Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+14
75.6%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 14 yds to the SC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
76.1%
Mario Anderson run for 6 yds to the SC 23Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
76.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 1 yd to the SC 22Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+2
75.2%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to O'Mega Blake for 2 yds to the SC 24Similar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
75.2%
Kai Kroeger punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:0526% → 42%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
74.2%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MSST 33Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+60
74.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 60 yds to the SC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
58.3%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 7 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 10TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2466% → 76%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Tyshawn Russell for 5 yds to the SC 30Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
65.9%
Dakereon Joyner run for 2 yds to the SC 32Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+25
64.2%
Spencer Rattler run for 25 yds to the SC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
67.5%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 8 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+7
67.9%
Mario Anderson run for 7 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
67.9%
Spencer Rattler run for 8 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+9
68.4%
Mario Anderson run for 9 yds to the MSST 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
68.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 7 yds to the MSST 14Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
68.4%
Mario Anderson run for 2 yds to the MSST 12Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+3
67.4%
Mario Anderson run for 3 yds to the MSST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
68.4%
Mario Anderson run for 5 yds to the MSST 4Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
68.4%
Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the MSST 3Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.7%
Dakereon Joyner run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:3824% → 32%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
76.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
75.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+13
75.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 13 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
73.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the SC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
72.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 4 yds to the SC 36Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+49
67.9%
Kyle Ferrie 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
78.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 75 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2423% → 35%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
77.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 9 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-4
75.9%
Will Rogers sacked by Alex Huntley for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 30Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+19
77.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 19 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
75.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 30 yds to the SC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
73.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+11
74.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 11 yds to the SC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
73.8%
Lideatrick Griffin run for 9 yds to the SC 1Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the SC 1Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.6%
Mike Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4169% → 68%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.0%
Mario Anderson run for 3 yds to the SC 28Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
69.2%
Mario Anderson run for 2 yds to the SC 30Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-12
68.3%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Jett Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the SC 18Similar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+4
67.5%
Kai Kroeger punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 35 , Zavion Thomas returns for 4 yds to the MSST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2634% → 32%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
66.4%
Will Rogers sacked by T.J. Sanders for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 29Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+10
68.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
66.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+22
68.0%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SC 43 , Eddie Lewis returns for 22 yds to the SC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
70.7%
Dakereon Joyner run for 1 yd to the SC 44 Dakereon Joyner fumbled, recovered by MSST Nathaniel WatsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 5:1237% → 47%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
63.2%
Mike Wright run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 16
50
+5
65.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 5 yds to the SC 45Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+21
65.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 21 yds to the SC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
61.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 7 yds to the SC 17Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+4
61.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 4 yds to the SC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
61.4%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the SC 9Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+4
61.4%
Will Rogers run for 4 yds to the SC 5 Will Rogers fumbled, recovered by MSST Antonio HarmonSimilar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
63.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the SC 5Similar
Q3 2:31
4TH & 2
OPP 5
0
64.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (DeShawn Page) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+23
52.9%
Kyle Ferrie 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 18FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:2560% → 71%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.4%
Mario Anderson run for no gain to the SC 25Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
60.0%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Trey Knox for 15 yds to the SC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
63.4%
Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the SC 41Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+17
62.3%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Xavier Legette for 17 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+10
63.1%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Mario Anderson for 10 yds to the MSST 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+28
65.2%
Spencer Rattler run for 28 yds to the MSST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
66.6%
Mario Anderson run for 1 yd to the MSST 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
66.6%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to O'Mega BlakeSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-9
64.9%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Nathan Pickering for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 17Similar
Q4 12:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+35
71.4%
Mitch Jeter 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:1631% → 34%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
67.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 11 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
65.9%
Will Rogers sacked by Jordan Strachan for a loss of 5 yards to the MSST 22 Will Rogers fumbled, recovered by MSST , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 20TD
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:4377% → 93%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
77.4%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 9 yds to the MSST 13Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+4
77.4%
Mario Anderson run for 4 yds to the MSST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
77.4%
Mario Anderson run for no gain to the MSST 9Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
93.9%
Mario Anderson run for 9 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)Similar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
93.2%
PENALTY MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Crumedy,Jaden) 15 yards from S. Car35 to S. Car50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:2610% → 7%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
89.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
88.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+9
90.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 9 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
88.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Zavion ThomasSimilar
Q4 8:13
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+15
92.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 15 yds to the SC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
90.3%
Will Rogers sacked by Alex Huntley for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 47Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 16
OWN 47
0
92.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 16
OWN 47
+9
92.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 9 yds to the SC 44Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
93.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:0997% → 98%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
97.4%
Mario Anderson run for 3 yds to the SC 47Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
97.4%
Spencer Rattler pass incomplete to Trey KnoxSimilar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 7
OWN 47
-1
97.3%
Spencer Rattler sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 1 yard to the SC 46Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 8
OWN 46
+11
97.7%
Kai Kroeger punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 19 , Zavion Thomas returns for 11 yds to the MSST 43 Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Decamerion Richardson) to the MSST 19Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 8
OWN 46
+11
97.7%
Kai Kroeger punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 3 , Zavion Thomas returns for 11 yds to the MSST 43 Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Decamerion Richardson) to the MSST 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 2:425% → 9%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
95.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for no gain to the MSST 3Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+15
95.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 15 yds to the MSST 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
94.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
94.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 7 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+29
94.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 29 yds to the SC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
93.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
93.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Freddie RobersonSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
93.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jordan MosleySimilar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 10
OPP 46
+11
94.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Creed Whittemore for 11 yds to the SC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
92.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
92.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Creed Whittemore for 6 yds to the SC 29Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
92.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+47
90.7%
Kyle Ferrie 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · -11 yds · 2:1298% → 98%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
97.9%
Kneel down by South Carolina at S. Car46 for loss of 5 yards.Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 15
OWN 46
-4
98.0%
Kneel down by South Carolina at S. Car42 for loss of 4 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 42
-2
98.4%
Kneel down by South Carolina at S. Car40 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:36
Mario Anderson run for 9 yds for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)
+16.5
TD · Q2 7:02
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 7 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-16.1
TD · Q3 10:26
Mike Wright run for 1 yd for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com