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MINN

Minnesota 34 at Northwestern 37

NU
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q4OTQ2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:04 · Mark Crawford punt for 28 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q4OTQ2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense−2.1Pregame prior−21.4Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:50: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 18 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +9.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:11: Darius Taylor run for 43 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +8.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:01: Cam Porter run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) — NU win probability +8.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:46: Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 17 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) — NU win probability +20.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:02: Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 11 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) (Jack Olsen KICK) — NU win probability +38.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 11:16NU 4th & 1 at NU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:04MINN 4th & 3 at NU 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:31NU 4th & 10 at NU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:20MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:17NU 4th & 1 at NU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:04MINN 4th & 8 at NU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:11NU 4th & 16 at NU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:32NU 4th & 11 at NU 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:35MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 43, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:29NU 4th & 4 at MINN 19, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.3%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:24MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 34, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:13NU 4th & 9 at NU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:11MINN 4th & 1 at NU 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    84.7%−4.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−3.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:25MINN 4th & 7 at MINN 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:12MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:49NU 4th & 10 at NU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:07MINN 4th & 3 at NU 37, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−1.4
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:52MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:55MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:50MINN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:06NU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:11MINN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:01NU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:46NU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:02NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−7.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1TD
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
26.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 9 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:4426% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
26.1%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
26.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
26.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 11 yds to the NU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
26.1%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-7
26.1%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the NU 40 Northwestern Penalty, Offensive holding (A.J. Henning) to the NU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+7
26.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 7 yds to the NU 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+10
26.1%
Cam Porter run for 10 yds to the NU 47Similar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
26.9%
Hunter Renner punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:1273% → 73%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
26.8%
Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the MINN 20Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+10
26.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Le'Meke Brockington for a 1ST down Northwestern Penalty, Defensive holding (Garnett Hollis Jr.) to the MINN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
26.7%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 32Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+12
26.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Darius Taylor for 12 yds to the MINN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
26.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 10 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
26.4%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the NU 44Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
26.4%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the NU 41Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+2
26.5%
Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the NU 39Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
26.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4FUMBLE
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:0827% → 27%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
27.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 13 yds to the NU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
27.4%
pass incomplete to A.J. Henning Northwestern Penalty, personal foul (Duke Olges) to the NU 12Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 22
OWN 12
-11
27.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 4 yds to the NU 16 for a 1ST down Northwestern Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
27.5%
Jack Lausch run for 3 yds to the NU 34Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
27.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jack Lausch for 2 yds to the NU 36Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 5
OWN 36
-15
27.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning Northwestern Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Charlie Mangieri) to the NU 21Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 20
OWN 21
-6
27.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for a loss of 6 yards Ben Bryant fumbled, recovered by MINN Kyler BaughSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2128% → 27%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.7%
pass incomplete to A.J. HenningSimilar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
27.7%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Marshall Lang, broken up by Tyler NubinSimilar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
27.4%
pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
27.2%
Hunter Renner punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1173% → 73%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
26.9%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the MINN 44Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
26.9%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the MINN 45Similar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+1
27.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Darius Taylor for 1 yd to the MINN 46Similar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
27.4%
Mark Crawford punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:0328% → 28%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
27.7%
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the NU 11Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+3
27.7%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the NU 14Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+11
27.4%
A.J. Henning run for 11 yds to the NU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.8%
Cam Porter run for 6 yds to the NU 31Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
28.3%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 2 yards to the NU 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
27.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 5 yds to the NU 34Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
28.0%
Hunter Renner punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8FG
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0083% → 69%
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 37
0
16.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Corey Crooms Jr., broken up by Devin TurnerSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+53
17.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 53 yds to the NU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
22.0%
Bryce Williams run for 7 yds to the NU 3Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
23.9%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the NU 2Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
24.3%
pass incomplete to Brevyn Spann-FordSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
31.4%
Dragan Kesich 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
28.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 25 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10FG
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:0274% → 75%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
26.1%
Darius Taylor run for 41 yds to the NU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
24.2%
Darius Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the NU 36Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+5
24.3%
Northwestern Penalty, false start (5 Yards) to the NU 41Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 17
OPP 41
+2
24.9%
Bryce Williams run for 2 yds to the NU 39Similar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+7
25.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 7 yds to the NU 32Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
25.4%
Dragan Kesich 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 5:2273% → 80%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
27.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel Jackson, broken up by Coco Azema Minnesota Penalty, Offensive holding (Brevyn Spann-Ford) to the MINN 22Similar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+8
28.0%
Darius Taylor run for 8 yds to the MINN 30Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+6
27.9%
Darius Taylor run for 6 yds to the MINN 36Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+15
27.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Bryce Williams for 15 yds to the NU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+27
26.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 27 yds to the NU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
26.6%
Darius Taylor run for 8 yds to the NU 14Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+5
26.6%
Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the NU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
26.6%
Darius Taylor run for 8 yds to the NU 1Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.4%
Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.2%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:4422% → 20%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
21.7%
Northwestern Penalty, Offensive holding (Ben Wrather) to the NU 15Similar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+15
21.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Marshall Lang for 15 yds to the NU 30Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
22.2%
A.J. Henning run for 7 yds to the NU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
22.2%
pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-6
21.9%
Ben Bryant sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the NU 31Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 16
OWN 31
0
21.4%
Similar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 16
OWN 31
0
20.3%
Hunter Renner punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 3:2180% → 90%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
20.5%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 30Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+18
20.5%
Darius Taylor run for 18 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
19.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Darius Taylor for 5 yds to the NU 47Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
19.6%
Bryce Williams run for 4 yds to the NU 43Similar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+25
19.7%
Darius Taylor run for 25 yds to the NU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
10.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 18 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4413% → 19%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
13.0%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 5 yards to the NU 20Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+80
19.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 80 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:3217% → 16%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
17.2%
Ben Bryant run for 7 yds to the NU 32Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
17.8%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Cam Johnson, broken up by Jah JoynerSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-8
17.8%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 34 Northwestern Penalty, Offensive holding (Caleb Tiernan) to the NU 24Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
16.8%
pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
16.1%
Hunter Renner punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2585% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+16
15.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 16 yds to the MINN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
14.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel Jackson, broken up by Najee StorySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
14.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Chris Autman-Bell, broken up by Garnett Hollis Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
15.0%
Similar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
15.2%
Mark Crawford punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 6:0616% → 17%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
15.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 9 yds to the NU 27Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+11
16.2%
Cam Porter run for 11 yds to the NU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
16.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 2 yds to the NU 40Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
16.6%
Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+23
16.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 23 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
17.4%
A.J. Henning run for 5 yds to the MINN 32Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+7
18.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jack Lausch for 7 yds Ben Bryant fumbled, recovered by NU Charlie Mangieri for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
18.0%
Ben Bryant sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the MINN 33Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 18
OPP 33
0
17.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Joseph Himon IISimilar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 18
OPP 33
+14
16.6%
Cam Porter run for 14 yds to the MINN 19Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
17.3%
Jack Olsen 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0586% → 87%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
14.0%
Darius Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the MINN 21Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
14.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 4 yds to the MINN 25Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
13.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 9 yds to the MINN 34Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
13.3%
Mark Crawford punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1115% → 13%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-8
14.8%
Joseph Himon II run for 2 yds to the NU 23 Northwestern Penalty, Offensive holding (Duke Olges) to the NU 13Similar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 18
OWN 13
0
14.7%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Thomas Gordon, broken up by Maverick BaranowskiSimilar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 18
OWN 13
0
14.6%
pass incomplete to A.J. HenningSimilar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+9
14.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 9 yds to the NU 22Similar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
13.4%
Hunter Renner punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 2:0289% → 97%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
11.4%
Darius Taylor run for 7 yds to the NU 45Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
11.0%
Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+2
11.6%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the NU 43Similar
Q3 2:11
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+43
3.3%
Darius Taylor run for 43 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:105% → 15%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
4.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 12 yds to the NU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
4.6%
pass incomplete to A.J. HenningSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
4.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
50
+16
4.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 16 yds to the MINN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
5.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 5 yds to the MINN 29Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+15
5.4%
Ben Bryant run for 1 yd to the MINN 28 for a 1ST down Minnesota Penalty, personal foul (Jack Henderson) to the MINN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
4.5%
Jack Lausch pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 4 yds to the MINN 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+4
4.5%
Jack Lausch run for 4 yds to the MINN 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+2
4.8%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the MINN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
5.7%
Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the MINN 1Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
14.5%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3692% → 93%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
8.2%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the MINN 26Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
8.2%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 28Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
8.4%
pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
7.4%
Mark Crawford punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:3910% → 31%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+21
9.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 21 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
10.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 31 yds to the MINN 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
31.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 17 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:3481% → 84%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 8 yds to the MINN 33Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
18.1%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
17.8%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the MINN 38Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
16.9%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the MINN 41Similar
Q4 9:46
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+3
17.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 3 yds to the MINN 44Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
15.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:2321% → 18%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
21.1%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 21Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
20.6%
pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+10
19.5%
Ben Bryant run for 10 yds to the NU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
21.9%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Cam Johnson, broken up by Tre'Von JonesSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
21.2%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
19.6%
pass incomplete to Cam PorterSimilar
Q4 4:49
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
18.1%
Hunter Renner punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:4287% → 89%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
13.1%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the MINN 37Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+19
12.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 19 yds to the NU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
11.3%
Darius Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 45Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+9
9.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 9 yds to the NU 36Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-1
9.7%
Darius Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 37Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
11.5%
Minnesota Penalty, false start (Eli Mau) to the NU 37Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
11.3%
Mark Crawford punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 2:0516% → 64%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
16.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Porter for 5 yds to the NU 25Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
17.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 1 yd to the NU 26Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+11
16.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 11 yds to the NU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
17.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam PorterSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-15
17.6%
Northwestern Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the MINN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
21.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 11 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
21.8%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete Northwestern Penalty, Offensive holding (Caleb Tiernan) to the MINN 47Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 20
OPP 47
0
19.3%
pass incomplete to Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+8
18.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 8 yds to the MINN 39Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+16
18.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 16 yds to the MINN 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
25.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 12 yds to the MINN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
25.3%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Cam Johnson, broken up by Tre'Von JonesSimilar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
63.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 11 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:02
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 11 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) (Jack Olsen KICK)
+38.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+36.3
TD · Q4 9:46
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 17 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
+20.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com