Try the model
CSU

Colorado State 31 at Middle Tennessee 23

MTSU
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:29 · Trey Turk punt for 49 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense+8.7Score differential+1.9Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:16: Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:20: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:34: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK) — CSU win probability +24.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:19: Mohamed Kamara 5 Yd Fumble Return (Jordan Noyes Kick) — CSU win probability +15.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:34: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 10 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin PAT BLOCKED) — MTSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10CSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:32MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:26CSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:03CSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 24, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    38.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:58MTSU 4th & 8 at CSU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:53MTSU 4th & 8 at CSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:38CSU 4th & 3 at CSU 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:34MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:10CSU 4th & 4 at CSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:52MTSU 4th & 15 at CSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:58CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−4.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:58CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:29MTSU 4th & 9 at CSU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:16MTSU 4th & 2 at CSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−1.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−11.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:19MTSU 4th & 4 at CSU 19, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−7.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:39CSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 49, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:39MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 40, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.3%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00MTSU 4th & 3 at CSU 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%−4.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−4.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:09MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:03CSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:16MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:20CSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:34CSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:19CSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:34MTSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    17.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.1%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2850% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 8 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
50.3%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
50.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
50.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 6 yds to the MTSU 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
50.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
50.5%
Trey Turk punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:0650% → 49%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
50.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 2 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+1
50.5%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 22Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+10
50.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 10 yds to the CSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
50.5%
Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 33Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
50.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 6 yds to the CSU 39Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+9
50.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 9 yds to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
50.4%
Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+6
50.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 6 yds to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
50.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 23 yds to the MTSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
50.3%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the MTSU 14Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
50.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
50.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
50.7%
Jordan Noyes 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1751% → 53%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.6%
Jaiden Credle run for 5 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
50.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
50.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 5 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
50.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 9 yds to the MTSU 47Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
51.3%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
53.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 49 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 1:5948% → 49%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
52.2%
JOHNSON, Kobe rush to the right for no gain to the CSU43 (FRANCIS, Drew;MCDONALD, De'Arre). PENALTY CSU Holding on MOSS, Drew enforced 10 yards from the CSU43 to the CSU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+15
52.9%
FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass to the left complete for 15 yards to BROWN IV, Louis caught at the CSU39 and advanced to the CSU48 (TEAM), out of bounds. PENALTY MTS Personal Foul on THOMAS, Jakobe enforced 15 yards from the CSU48 to the MTS37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
52.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the MTSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
51.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
51.7%
Kobe Johnson run for 2 yds to the MTSU 24Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
52.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+24
50.7%
Giles Pooler pass complete to Dallin Holker for 24 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:0550% → 53%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
50.4%
Frank Peasant run for 10 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
50.5%
Frank Peasant run for 9 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-10
51.5%
PEASANT, Frank rush up the middle for a gain of 14 yards to the CSU42 (HOWELL, Jack). PENALTY MTS Holding on ELLIS, Ethan enforced 10 yards from the MTS44 to the MTS34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+13
50.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 13 yds to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
51.4%
Colorado State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (James Mitchell) to the CSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
52.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 16 yds to the CSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
52.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-3
52.0%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 19Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 13
OPP 19
+5
51.3%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the CSU 14Similar
Q1 0:58
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
53.1%
Zeke Rankin 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
51.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
52.7%
CREDLE, Jaiden rush to the right for no gain to the MTS25 (GATKUOTH, Nuer). PENALTY MTS Holding on GRAHAM, Jacqui enforced 10 yards from the MTS25 to the MTS15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:0753% → 53%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
52.6%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the MTSU 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+10
52.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 10 yds to the MTSU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
52.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 10 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
53.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 1 yd to the MTSU 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
53.1%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTSU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+11
52.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 11 yds to the CSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
54.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the CSU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
54.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
53.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
52.9%
Miles Tillman punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tory Horton at the CSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1548% → 46%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
52.1%
Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the CSU 18Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 5
OWN 18
-3
52.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 15Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+5
52.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 5 yds to the CSU 20Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
53.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0455% → 55%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
55.1%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTSU 45Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
54.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 4 yds to the MTSU 49Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
54.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
54.6%
Trey Turk punt for 46 yds, downed at the CSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:2447% → 47%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
53.2%
Kobe Johnson run for 5 yds to the CSU 10Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 5
OWN 10
-4
52.8%
Kobe Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 6Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 9
OWN 6
+12
54.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Kobe Johnson for 12 yds to the CSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
52.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
52.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 6 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
53.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
53.0%
Paddy Turner punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 5:1856% → 53%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
55.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 6 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
57.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jekail Middlebrook for 1 yd to the MTSU 44Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+10
56.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 10 yds to the CSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
57.4%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 1 yd to the CSU 45Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
57.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds to the CSU 40Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+7
57.2%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 7 yds to the CSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
58.2%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the CSU 31Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+3
58.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the CSU 28Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
57.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 5
OPP 28
-10
55.5%
VATTIATO, Nicholas scrambles to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the CSU22 (JONES, Dom). PENALTY MTS Holding on PIERCE, Julius enforced 10 yards from the CSU28 to the CSU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 15
OPP 38
0
53.1%
Miles Tillman punt for 33 yds, downed at the CSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:5449% → 47%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
51.3%
Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the CSU 9Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+11
51.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 11 yds to the CSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
50.8%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
51.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-6
52.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi sacked by De'Arre McDonald for a loss of 6 yards to the CSU 14Similar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
53.2%
Paddy Turner punt for 32 yds, downed at the CSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 0:4258% → 71%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
57.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 11 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
58.8%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by James Mitchell for a loss of 4 yards to the CSU 39Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 14
OPP 39
0
56.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+35
54.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 35 yds to the CSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
69.2%
Kobe Johnson run for no gain to the CSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5734% → 32%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
65.9%
Kobe Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 23Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
66.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
67.2%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 11
OWN 23
-5
67.9%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Chase Wilson) to the CSU 18Similar
Q3 13:58
4TH & 16
OWN 18
0
68.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 51 yds, downed at the MTSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:2968% → 70%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
67.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
50
+5
69.7%
DJ Riles run for 5 yds to the CSU 45Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-1
69.8%
DJ Riles run for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
68.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 4
OPP 44
-5
69.0%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Sterling Porcher) to the CSU 49Similar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
69.5%
Trey Turk punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0931% → 51%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
69.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 17 yds to the CSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
68.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 9 yds to the CSU 46Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-10
66.1%
JOHNSON, Kobe rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the CSU45 (HARTLEY, Raquon). PENALTY CSU Holding on GARDNER, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the CSU46 to the CSU36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+5
68.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 5 yds to the CSU 41Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+47
67.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 47 yds to the MTSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
64.1%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the MTSU 7Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
64.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
48.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18DOWNS
12 plays · 51 yds · 5:0457% → 59%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
56.5%
Frank Peasant run for 7 yds to the MTSU 32Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
58.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 2 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
57.3%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
57.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 9 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+7
60.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 7 yds to the CSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
60.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 4 yds to the CSU 44Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
60.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the CSU 43Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+10
60.1%
VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the left incomplete intended for SHERMAN, Javonte thrown to the CSU35. PENALTY CSU Holding on ANUSIEM, Chigozie enforced 10 yards from the CSU43 to the CSU33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
62.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the CSU 32Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+1
61.9%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the CSU 31Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+6
60.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 6 yds to the CSU 25Similar
Q3 3:16
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+1
59.4%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the CSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD
15 plays · 76 yds · 6:4248% → 78%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
52.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-10
52.6%
FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden pass to the left complete for 7 yards to ROSS-SIMMONS, Justus caught at the CSU30 and advanced to the CSU31 (MCDONALD, De'Arre). PENALTY CSU Holding on CANNON, Drew enforced 10 yards from the CSU24 to the CSU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 20
OWN 14
+12
53.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vann Schield for 12 yds to the CSU 26Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+17
53.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 17 yds to the CSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
49.0%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Drew Moss) to the CSU 38Similar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+5
51.5%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 5 yds to the CSU 43Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
50.0%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 8 yds to the MTSU 49Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+4
48.4%
Vann Schield run for 4 yds to the MTSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
47.7%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 8 yds to the MTSU 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+19
47.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 19 yds to the MTSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
46.0%
Vann Schield run for 5 yds to the MTSU 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
46.0%
Vann Schield run for no gain to the MTSU 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+6
47.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 6 yds to the MTSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
46.0%
Vann Schield run for no gain to the MTSU 7Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
21.9%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -20 yds · 0:1528% → 12%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.4%
Mohamed Kamara 5 Yd Fumble Return (Jordan Noyes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4513% → 23%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 5 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
13.1%
PEASANT, Frank rush to the left for a loss of 3 yards to the MTS27 (SANCHEZ, Justin). PENALTY CSU Offsides on KAMARA, Mohamed enforced 5 yards from the MTS30 to the MTS35 and results in a 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
13.0%
Jekail Middlebrook run for 5 yds to the MTSU 40Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+8
13.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 8 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+27
14.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 27 yds to the CSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
15.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the CSU 21Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+4
15.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 4 yds to the CSU 17Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-2
15.2%
Jekail Middlebrook run for a loss of 2 yards to the CSU 19Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+7
14.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 7 yds to the CSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
15.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 2 yds to the CSU 10Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
22.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 10 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:4889% → 94%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
11.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 7 yds to the CSU 24Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+11
11.1%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Justus Ross-Simmons for 11 yds to the CSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
11.0%
Colorado State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi) to the CSU 30Similar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+21
11.3%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 21 yds to the MTSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
9.6%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dallin Holker for 3 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
5.4%
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 4 yds to the MTSU 42Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-2
5.5%
Vann Schield run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 44Similar
Q4 2:43
4TH & 5
OPP 44
-5
6.2%
Colorado State Penalty, False Start (Ayden Hector) to the MTSU 49Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
6.5%
Paddy Turner punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 35 yds · 2:396% → 5%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
6.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Kalani Norris for a loss of 3 yards to the MTSU 11Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+17
6.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 17 yds to the MTSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
6.8%
Frank Peasant run for 8 yds to the MTSU 36Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+2
8.0%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
7.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 3 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-2
7.7%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Mohamed Kamara for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 39Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+1
6.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 1 yd to the MTSU 40Similar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+21
6.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 21 yds to the CSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
8.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 7 yds to the CSU 32Similar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
7.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:07
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
6.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 32
-11
4.9%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the MTSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:34
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
-24.1
TD · Q4 11:19
Mohamed Kamara 5 Yd Fumble Return (Jordan Noyes Kick)
-15.8
TD · Q3 8:20
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Tory Horton for 7 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)
-15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com