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MD

Maryland 31 at Michigan State 9

MSU
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:33 · Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 22 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Home team on offense−25.2Pregame prior−5.4Score differential−7.5Garbage-time factor−7.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:28: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +5.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:39: Taulia Tagovailoa run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +6.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 3:39: Jonathan Kim 37 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:54: Timeout Michigan State, clock 04:54 — MD win probability +6.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:44: Tyrell Henry 9 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 16%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 7:52MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:08MSU 4th & 1 at MD 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    31.9%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−6.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:39MSU 4th & 9 at MD 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:42MD 4th & 6 at MD 29, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00MD 4th & 10 at MD 25, up 18
    Numbers favored punt by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:19MD 4th & 10 at MSU 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    80.6%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:30MD 4th & 5 at MD 30, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:36MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 25, down 12
    Close callPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:57MD 4th & 9 at MSU 40, up 12
    Close callPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:33MSU 4th & 20 at MSU 10, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−2.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:00MD 4th & 8 at MSU 30, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    86.6%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:53MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 29, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.9%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:18MD 4th & 1 at MSU 31, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:30MD 4th & 1 at MSU 12, up 22
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 28, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:52MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:28MD Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:39MD Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:44MSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    18.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:18MD Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:4426% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
25.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nathan Carter for 7 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
25.9%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
25.9%
Noah Kim run for 3 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
25.9%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
25.9%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+15
25.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 15 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
27.5%
Noah Kim pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 4:2473% → 74%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
27.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
27.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 8 yds to the MSU 37Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+6
27.0%
Antwain Littleton II run for 6 yds to the MSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
26.9%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+9
26.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 9 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
26.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
26.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 2 yds to the MSU 18Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+17
27.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 17 yds to the MSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Sean Greeley for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3DOWNS
16 plays · 68 yds · 7:4427% → 28%
Q1 7:52
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+3
27.1%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
26.9%
Noah Kim sacked by Caleb Wheatland for a loss of 10 yards to the MSU 20Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 20
OWN 20
0
26.8%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 20
OWN 20
+18
26.6%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 18 yds to the MSU 38Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+4
26.8%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
27.3%
Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 17 yds to the MD 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
27.6%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MD 38Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+11
27.6%
Nathan Carter run for 11 yds to the MD 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
27.9%
Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the MD 18Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+12
27.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 12 yds to the MD 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
27.9%
CARTER, Nate rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the UMD4 (GOTAY, Fa'Najae). PENALTY MSU Holding on FRANKLIN, Jaylan enforced 10 yards from the UMD6 to the UMD16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+8
27.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Maliq Carr for 8 yds to the MD 8Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
27.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the MD 5Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
27.6%
Noah Kim run for 4 yds to the MD 1Similar
Q1 0:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
28.3%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 4 yards to the MD 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4TD
11 plays · 95 yds · 3:3272% → 79%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
27.6%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the MD 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+15
27.7%
Michigan State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on ADELEYE, Tunmise enforced (15 Yards) to the MD 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
26.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+11
27.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 11 yds to the MD 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
26.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rico Walker for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
26.0%
Colby McDonald run for 9 yds to the MSU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+25
26.0%
Colby McDonald run for 25 yds to the MSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
25.8%
Colby McDonald run for 4 yds to the MSU 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
25.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
26.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 8 yds to the MD 47Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
20.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 12 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0119% → 19%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
18.5%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nathan Carter for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
18.5%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 32 Nathan Carter fumbled, recovered by MD Donnell BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:4880% → 86%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
19.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
19.9%
Octavian Smith Jr. run for 5 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+22
19.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 22 yds to the MSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
19.8%
Antwain Littleton II run for 4 yds to the MSU 1Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 5:0012% → 18%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.9%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
11.8%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 9 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
12.4%
KIM, Noah pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BROWN, Alante thrown to the UMD40. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on COLEY JR., Corey enforced 15 yards to the UMD47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
12.7%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nathan Carter for 9 yds to the MD 38Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+1
12.4%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
12.8%
Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+8
12.6%
Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the MD 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
13.0%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
12.9%
Noah Kim pass complete to Nathan Carter for 1 yd to the MD 19Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
12.7%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+37
17.9%
Jonathan Kim 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5485% → 88%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
14.8%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 24Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
14.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 3 yds to the MD 27Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
15.1%
Maryland Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MD 22Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
13.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 35 ydsSimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+7
12.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 7 yds to the MD 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9MISSED FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 1:3115% → 16%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
15.1%
Noah Kim run for 7 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+3
13.7%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 3 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.6%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
15.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 10 yds to the MSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
16.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 18 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
16.6%
Noah Kim run for no gain to the MD 36 Michigan State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MD 46Similar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 20
OPP 46
0
16.4%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
2ND & 20
OPP 46
+2
16.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 2 yds to the MD 44Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 18
OPP 44
0
15.9%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
4TH & 18
OPP 44
+15
15.8%
Maryland Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MD 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
17.7%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+46
16.2%
Jonathan Kim 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 2:4188% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
12.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
12.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+14
13.1%
Colton Spangler run for 14 yds to the MD 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
11.9%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+38
11.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 38 yds to the MSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
11.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
11.6%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the MSU 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
11.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:19
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+40
11.9%
Jack Howes 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11INT
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:3413% → 13%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
13.1%
Nathan Carter run for 15 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
13.4%
Noah Kim pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12INT
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:1590% → 92%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
10.2%
Antwain Littleton II run for 7 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+2
9.6%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
9.8%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the MSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
10.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Preston Howard for 9 yds to the MSU 21Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+12
9.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 12 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
9.6%
Antwain Littleton II run for 1 yd to the MSU 8Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
9.6%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the MSU 7Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
8.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:4611% → 16%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
11.0%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the MSU 25Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
11.1%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
11.3%
Noah Kim run for 2 yds to the MSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+33
11.2%
Noah Kim pass complete to Jaron Glover for 33 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
12.3%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
7.1%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 7 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+19
6.2%
Nathan Carter run for 19 yds to the MD 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
7.4%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MD 9Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
16.1%
Tyrell Henry 9 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1485% → 85%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.4%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
15.4%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
15.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
14.7%
Colton Spangler punt for 52 yds, downed at the MSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5413% → 12%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
13.1%
Noah Kim run for 7 yds to the MSU 25Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 3
OWN 25
0
13.4%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
12.4%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
11.6%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the MD 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:3986% → 88%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
13.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 4 yds to the MD 37Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+6
13.1%
Antwain Littleton II run for 6 yds to the MD 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
11.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 16 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
10.9%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MSU 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
11.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
11.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:57
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
12.0%
Colton Spangler punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:2411% → 10%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
11.1%
Noah Kim pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
11.0%
Noah Kim pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-16
11.0%
Noah Kim sacked for a loss of 16 yards to the MSU 10Similar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
10.2%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3390% → 95%
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
9.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
10.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 3 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q4 12:33
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-1
10.1%
Colby McDonald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 30Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+48
5.5%
Jack Howes 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19INT
14 plays · 82 yds · 5:053% → 2%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
2.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+11
2.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 11 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
2.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for no gain to the MSU 21Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-11
2.9%
Katin Houser sacked by Kellan Wyatt and Caleb Wheatland for a loss of 11 yards to the MSU 10Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 21
OWN 10
+19
3.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 19 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 2
OWN 29
+3
3.3%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
3.1%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
3.0%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+28
2.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Antonio Gates Jr. for 28 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
3.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 11 yds to the MD 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
2.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 6 yds to the MD 23Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+15
2.6%
HOUSER, Katin pass deep to the right incomplete intended for GATES JR., Antonio thrown to the UMD0. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on SHEPPARD, Jaquan enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the UMD8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
2.1%
Katin Houser pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 2:2197% → 100%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
2.8%
Antwain Littleton II run for 3 yds to the MD 22Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+5
2.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 5 yds to the MD 27Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+15
2.7%
Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Malik Spencer) to the MSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
2.1%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MSU 38Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
2.1%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+3
1.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+31
0.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 31 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21MISSED FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
0.4%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 25Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+5
0.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 5 yds to the MSU 20Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+8
0.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 8 yds to the MSU 12Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+29
0.3%
Jack Howes 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:300% → 0%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
0.2%
Sam Leavitt run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 19Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+5
0.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 5 yds to the MSU 24Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+4
0.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Antonio Gates Jr. for 4 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+8
0.2%
Sam Leavitt run for 8 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:44
Tyrell Henry 9 Yd pass from Noah Kim (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+8.7
TD · Q2 8:39
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
-6.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:54
Timeout Michigan State, clock 04:54
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com