Try the model
MEM

Memphis 27 at Missouri 34

MIZ
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · The Dome at America's Center
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:37 · Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 11 yds to the MIZ 27 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Home team on offense+0.7Pregame prior+16.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:41: PEAT, Nathaniel rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the MEM0 (SPEARS, Keveion'ta). PENALTY Before the snap, MEM Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards from the MEM1 to the MEM1. NO PLAY (replay the down). — MIZ win probability +3.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:19: Theo Wease Jr. 19 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Harrison Mevis Kick) — MIZ win probability +6.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:07: Blake Watson 13 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick) — MEM win probability +10.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:46: Cody Schrader 37 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick) — MIZ win probability +6.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:21: Koby Drake 21 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick) — MEM win probability +13.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MEM made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 10:50MEM 4th & 9 at MIZ 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    32.4%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:37MEM 4th & 8 at MIZ 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.0%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:18MEM 4th & 8 at MIZ 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:15MEM 4th & 3 at MIZ 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:20MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:41MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:41MIZ 4th & 1 at MEM 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    62.2%−1.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    62.2%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:32MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:05MIZ 4th & 5 at MEM 8, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−4.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:38MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 46, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:36MEM 4th & 15 at MEM 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:54MIZ 4th & 1 at MEM 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−2.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−3.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:44MIZ 4th & 12 at MIZ 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−3.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:54MEM 4th & 4 at MIZ 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    22.5%−0.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−11.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:01MIZ 4th & 8 at MEM 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−9.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:01MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:18MEM 4th & 3 at MIZ 3, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.9%−4.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−8.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:37MIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:15MEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:07MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:46MIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:21MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 4:0932% → 32%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
68.3%
Seth Henigan sacked by Darius Robinson for a loss of 3 yards to the MEM 22Similar
Q1 14:59
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
68.3%
Blake Watson run for 6 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q1 14:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
68.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 13 yds to the MEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
68.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:59
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
68.3%
Blake Watson run for 13 yds to the MIZ 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
68.3%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q1 14:59
2ND & 6
OPP 42
-10
68.3%
HENIGAN, Seth scrambles to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the MIZ39 (GADDY, Nyles). PENALTY MEM Holding on DOYLE, Brendan enforced 10 yards from the MIZ42 to the MEM48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:59
2ND & 16
OWN 48
0
68.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:59
3RD & 16
OWN 48
+7
68.3%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q1 14:59
3RD & 16
OWN 48
+7
68.3%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
67.7%
Reid Bauer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kris Abrams-Draine at the MIZ 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2TD
3 plays · 91 yds · 1:1368% → 70%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
67.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 14 yds to the MIZ 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
67.8%
Cody Schrader run for 1 yd to the MIZ 24Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+76
69.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 76 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:1931% → 32%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.2%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
69.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 21 yds to the MEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
68.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 6 yds to the MIZ 45Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
68.7%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the MIZ 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
68.8%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the MIZ 37Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
68.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-1
68.9%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 38Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 8
OPP 38
+11
69.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 11 yds to the MIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
68.5%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the MIZ 25Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
68.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for no gain to the MIZ 25Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
68.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:18
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+43
68.0%
Tanner Gillis 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5168% → 68%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
68.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 2 yds to the MIZ 17Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
68.1%
COOK, Brady pass up the middle complete for 7 yards to BURDEN, Luther caught at the MIZ14 and advanced to the MIZ24 (BLAIR, Simeon;BARNETT, Julian), out of bounds. PENALTY MIZ Holding on WEASE, Theo enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards MIZ Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BURDEN, Luther enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the MIZ9 to the MIZ5 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
68.1%
COOK, Brady pass up the middle complete for 7 yards to BURDEN, Luther caught at the MIZ14 and advanced to the MIZ24 (BLAIR, Simeon;BARNETT, Julian), out of bounds. PENALTY MIZ Holding on WEASE, Theo enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards MIZ Unsportsmanlike Conduct on BURDEN, Luther enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the MIZ9 to the MIZ5 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 20
OWN 5
+5
67.9%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the MIZ 10 Cody Schrader fumbled, recovered by MEM William Whitlow Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:0633% → 36%
Q1 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
66.7%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the MIZ 9Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
66.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 4 yds to the MIZ 5Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
67.1%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the MIZ 3Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 3 yds for a TD (Tanner Gillis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:5065% → 63%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
64.7%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 18Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 13
OWN 18
-7
64.6%
Brady Cook sacked by Keveion'ta Spears for a loss of 7 yards to the MIZ 11Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 20
OWN 11
+6
64.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mekhi Miller for 6 yds to the MIZ 17Similar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 14
OWN 17
0
63.2%
Luke Bauer punt for 59 yds , Koby Drake returns for no gain to the MEM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:1936% → 37%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
63.8%
Sutton Smith run for 13 yds to the MEM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
63.6%
Sutton Smith run for 2 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
63.6%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left incomplete intended for SMITH, Sutton thrown to the MEM35. PENALTY MIZ Pass Interference on WALKER, Johnny enforced at the spot of the foul for 4 yards to the MEM33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
63.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 5 yds to the MEM 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
62.8%
Blake Watson run for 2 yds to the MEM 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+4
62.9%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the MEM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
62.7%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the MEM 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
62.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
63.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
63.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 0:0063% → 70%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
63.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 28 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
65.2%
Marquis Johnson run for 3 yds to the MEM 44Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+3
65.2%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the MEM 41Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+3
65.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 3 yds to the MEM 38Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+2
64.1%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the MEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
65.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 7 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+8
65.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 8 yds to the MEM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+20
65.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 20 yds to the MEM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.9%
PEAT, Nathaniel rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the MEM0 (SPEARS, Keveion'ta). PENALTY Before the snap, MEM Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards from the MEM1 to the MEM1. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.7%
PEAT, Nathaniel rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the MEM0 (SPEARS, Keveion'ta). PENALTY Before the snap, MEM Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 0 yards from the MEM1 to the MEM1. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:5524% → 21%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
75.9%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the MEM 26Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-9
75.9%
Seth Henigan sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the MEM 17Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+20
76.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 20 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
75.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 35Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+3
76.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 3 yds to the MEM 38Similar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
75.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
78.8%
Reid Bauer punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10FG
14 plays · 78 yds · 3:2778% → 80%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
78.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 13Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+15
78.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 15 yds to the MIZ 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+11
78.7%
Nathaniel Peat run for 11 yds to the MIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
78.5%
Nathaniel Peat run for 4 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
79.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 10 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+34
79.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 34 yds to the MEM 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
81.0%
PEAT, Nathaniel rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the MEM7 (CANTIN-ARKU, Geoffrey). PENALTY MIZ Holding on JOHNSON, Cam'Ron enforced 10 yards from the MEM13 to the MEM23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+17
81.0%
Brady Cook run for 17 yds to the MEM 6Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 3
OPP 6
-2
79.7%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 8Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
79.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
79.8%
Harrison Mevis 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
78.2%
Blake Watson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MEM 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:1480% → 80%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
80.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 4 yds to the MIZ 31Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+12
80.6%
Nathaniel Peat run for 12 yds to the MIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
81.4%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Javon Foster) to the MIZ 38Similar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+5
80.9%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the MIZ 43Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
81.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 3 yds to the MIZ 46Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
80.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
80.2%
Luke Bauer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Koby Drake at the MEM 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0220% → 18%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
80.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
80.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 6 yds to the MEM 22Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 4
OWN 22
-5
80.9%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left complete for 9 yards to LANDPHERE, Anthony caught at the MEM29 and advanced to the MEM31 (WALKER, Johnny). PENALTY Before the snap, MEM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MEM22 to the MEM17. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 9
OWN 17
-6
81.2%
Seth Henigan sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MEM 11Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 15
OWN 11
0
82.3%
Reid Bauer punt for 65 yds, downed at the MIZ 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 1:1782% → 88%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
82.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 1 yd to the MIZ 25Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+56
82.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 56 yds to the MEM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
87.9%
Theo Wease Jr. 19 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Harrison Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:3914% → 15%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 7 yds to the MEM 32Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
84.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
85.1%
Seth Henigan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4688% → 89%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
88.3%
Cody Schrader run for 9 yds to the MEM 45Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+5
88.3%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the MEM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.3%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
88.3%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+9
87.7%
Brady Cook run for 9 yds to the MEM 31Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 1
OPP 31
0
88.6%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:4714% → 28%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
85.8%
Blake Watson run for 6 yds to the MEM 37Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+10
85.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 10 yds to the MEM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+33
85.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 33 yds to the MIZ 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
83.3%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the MIZ 17Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
83.3%
Blake Watson run for 4 yds to the MIZ 13Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+13
72.5%
Blake Watson 13 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2379% → 77%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the MIZ 25Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
79.1%
Brady Cook sacked by Cincir Evans for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 23Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
77.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
77.2%
Luke Bauer punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:5027% → 23%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
50
0
72.9%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 10
50
0
74.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 10
50
+23
75.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 23 yds to the MIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
70.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for no gain to the MIZ 27Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-10
71.4%
HENIGAN, Seth scrambles to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the MIZ24 (CARLIES, Jaylon), out of bounds. PENALTY MEM Holding on LANDPHERE, Anthony enforced 10 yards from the MIZ27 to the MIZ37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 20
OPP 37
+5
74.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jevyon Ducker for 5 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 32
+11
77.5%
Seth Henigan run for 11 yds to the MIZ 21Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 4
OPP 21
0
76.9%
Seth Henigan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20FG
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:5384% → 87%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+23
84.1%
Cody Schrader run for 23 yds to the MIZ 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
84.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 24 yds to the MEM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
86.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for 9 yds to the MEM 32Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
86.6%
Nathaniel Peat run for 3 yds to the MEM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
86.6%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Connor Tollison) to the MEM 34Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+18
86.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for 18 yds to the MEM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
86.5%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 2 yards to the MEM 18Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 12
OPP 18
0
86.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 12
OPP 18
+4
85.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 4 yds to the MEM 14Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+32
86.8%
Harrison Mevis 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:4314% → 17%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 4 yds to the MEM 29Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
85.5%
Blake Watson run for 3 yds to the MEM 32Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
85.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+26
87.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 26 yds to the MIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+26
83.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 26 yds to the MIZ 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
81.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
81.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 9 yds to the MIZ 7Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+1
82.9%
Blake Watson run for 1 yd to the MIZ 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
81.6%
Blake Watson run for no gain to the MIZ 6Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
81.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Anthony Landphere for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 8Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
83.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Demeer Blankumsee for 5 yds to the MIZ 3Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+22
83.2%
Tanner Gillis 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:3291% → 98%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
90.5%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
90.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 21 yds to the MEM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
91.7%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MEM 45Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+8
91.7%
Cody Schrader run for 8 yds to the MEM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
97.7%
Cody Schrader 37 Yd Run (Harrison Mevis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:254% → 19%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 11 yds to the MEM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
95.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 15 yds to the MIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
95.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 5 yds to the MIZ 44Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+3
94.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Blake Watson for 3 yds to the MIZ 41Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+8
94.8%
Seth Henigan run for 8 yds to the MIZ 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
94.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Tauskie Dove for 12 yds to the MIZ 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
94.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
81.3%
Koby Drake 21 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:1697% → 97%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
96.9%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the MEM 44Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+10
96.9%
Cody Schrader run for 10 yds to the MEM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
97.2%
Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the MEM 28Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
97.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by MIZ at MEM34 (team loss of 6).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
97.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by MIZ at MEM35 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:21
Koby Drake 21 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)
-13
TD · Q3 4:07
Blake Watson 13 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Tanner Gillis Kick)
-10.9
TD · Q3 9:19
Theo Wease Jr. 19 Yd pass from Brady Cook (Harrison Mevis Kick)
+6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com