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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreARK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:02 · Damian Ramos 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:30: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 49 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +12.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q4 14:11: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 59 yds for a TD (KJ Jefferson pass to Luke Hasz for Two-Point Conversion) — ARK win probability +28.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:43: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 20 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +18.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:06: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 11 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +44.6 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:05: Damian Ramos 20 yd FG GOOD — LSU win probability +30.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4ARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 13:40ARK 4th & 2 at ARK 33, tiedClose callPunted · 12.8% before the snapGo for it12.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 12:49LSU 4th & 4 at LSU 20, tiedClose callPunted · 86.9% before the snapGo for it86.9%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:56ARK 4th & 5 at LSU 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snapGo for it15.5%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call15.5%92% to makePunt14.7%−0.8average punt
- Q2 13:24LSU 4th & 11 at ARK 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snapGo for it80.2%−0.127% to convertField goal80.2%−0.134% to makePuntTheir call80.3%average punt
- Q2 6:33ARK 4th & 5 at LSU 5, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snapGo for it24.6%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call24.6%92% to makePunt20.0%−4.6average punt
- Q2 4:02LSU 4th & 7 at ARK 7, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.3% before the snapGo for it70.1%−0.528% to convertField goalTheir call70.6%91% to makePunt65.0%−5.6average punt
- Q3 8:01ARK 4th & 2 at LSU 19, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.9%56% to convertField goal23.0%−0.977% to makePunt17.7%−6.2average punt
- Q3 5:44ARK 4th & 21 at LSU 22, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.2% before the snapGo for it18.9%−2.58% to convertField goalTheir call21.3%72% to makePunt16.0%−5.3average punt
- Q4 0:05LSU 4th & 3 at ARK 3, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 4.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snapGo for it64.9%44% to convertField goalTheir call60.9%−4.193% to makePunt27.1%−37.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q2 0:48ARK Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.8%97% to makeGo for two39.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:30LSU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.4%97% to makeGo for two70.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:00LSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.7%97% to makeGo for two79.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:40LSU Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.8%97% to makeGo for two84.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:11ARK Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick30.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call30.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:43LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.0%97% to makeGo for two82.7%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 5:06ARK Touchdown, down 1 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call38.5%−0.397% to makeGo for two38.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartARKDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1510% → 11%
LSUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4889% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3FG13 plays · 51 yds · 6:5011% → 14%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
89.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for no gain to the ARK 44Similar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
88.4%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Greg Penn III for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 36Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+11
88.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 11 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+7
88.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 7 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4INT7 plays · 39 yds · 2:4586% → 86%
Q1 5:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+22
86.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 22 yds to the ARK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+1
86.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 1 yd to the ARK 42Similar
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-15
86.0%
Jayden Daniels pass intercepted Dwight McGlothern return for 15 yds to the ARK 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
84.9%
KJ Jefferson pass intercepted Andre' Sam return for no gain to the LSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6PUNT12 plays · 29 yds · 4:2685% → 83%
Q1 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
85.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 5 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+15
84.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 15 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+9
84.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Aaron Anderson for 9 yds to the ARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-8
84.7%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Keivie Rose for a loss of 8 yards to the ARK 47Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 18
OPP 47
+7
83.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 7 yds to the ARK 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7FG13 plays · 75 yds · 6:4317% → 27%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
82.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 22 yds to the ARK 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+14
81.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 14 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
80.8%
Jefferson, KJ pass incomplete to Hasz, Luke, PENALTY LSU holding (Burns, Major) 10 yards to the LSU34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+8
78.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 8 yds to the LSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8FG9 plays · 68 yds · 2:2876% → 78%
Q2 5:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
74.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 11 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+51
76.1%
Josh Williams run for 41 yds to the ARK 19 for a 1ST down Arkansas Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Alfahiym Walcott) to the ARK 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
76.3%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Jaheim Thomas and Cameron Ball for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1124% → 40%
Q2 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 1 yd to the ARK 26Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+14
76.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 14 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
73.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 8 yds to the ARK 48Similar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
71.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 13 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD5 plays · 75 yds · 0:1563% → 76%
ARKDrive 11END OF HALF5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1629% → 30%
Q2 0:05
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+9
71.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 9 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-9
70.5%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the ARK 37 KJ Jefferson fumbled, forced by Harold Perkins Jr., recovered by ARK KJ Jefferson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5473% → 83%
ARKDrive 13FG19 plays · 53 yds · 8:1619% → 23%
Q3 13:50
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+17
81.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 17 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
77.3%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the LSU 38 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by ARK Joshua Braun for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Major Burns) to the LSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
76.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 8 yds to the LSU 19Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-8
77.3%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Mekhi Wingo and Whit Weeks for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 17Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 16
OPP 17
-5
82.4%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Da'Shawn Womack for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5778% → 92%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
78.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 12 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
80.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the ARK 21Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
92.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 8 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15TD11 plays · 75 yds · 2:2310% → 42%
Q4 14:11
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+59
61.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 59 yds for a TD (KJ Jefferson pass to Luke Hasz for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2170% → 93%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
70.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the LSU 30 for a 1ST down Arkansas Penalty, Defensive Holding (Lorando Johnson) to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
72.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 20 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
74.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Logan Diggs for 3 yds to the ARK 19Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+5
72.9%
Arkansas Penalty, Defensive Offside (Eric Gregory) to the ARK 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-9
74.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 1 yd to the ARK 10 LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (John Emery Jr.) to the ARK 20Similar
Q4 9:43
2ND & 16
OPP 20
+20
92.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 20 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD15 plays · 75 yds · 4:3211% → 54%
Q4 9:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+26
89.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 26 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
88.7%
Jefferson, KJ pass complete to Armstrong, Andrew for 37 yards to the LSU0, PENALTY ARKANSAS holding 10 yards to the LSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+33
89.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 33 yds to the LSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
3RD & 18
OPP 22
+11
90.3%
Jefferson, KJ pass incomplete to Hasz, Luke, PENALTY LSU roughing passer (Perkins Jr., Harold) 11 yards to the LSU11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKANSAS.Similar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
45.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 11 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18FG13 plays · 72 yds · 4:5265% → 95%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
64.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 36 yds to the ARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
69.6%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 1 yd to the ARK 38Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+5
69.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 5 yds to the ARK 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
89.0%
KJ Jefferson pass intercepted Zy Alexander return for no gain to the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:06
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 11 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)
-44.6
FG · Q4 0:05
Damian Ramos 20 yd FG GOOD
+30.4
TD · Q4 14:11
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Luke Hasz for 59 yds for a TD (KJ Jefferson pass to Luke Hasz for Two-Point Conversion)
-28.8