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FAU

Florida Atlantic 17 at Illinois 23

ILL
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:48 · Hugh Robertson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the FAU 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTimeout advantage
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Pregame prior+22.8Home team on offense−3.3Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Timeout advantage−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 19 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK) — FAU win probability +5.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:46: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Griffin Moore for 46 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +4.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 1:45: Luke Altmyer run for 7 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +9.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:11: Aidan Laughery run for 3 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin PAT MISSED) — ILL win probability +7.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:19: Daniel Richardson pass complete to BJ Alexander for 9 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK) — FAU win probability +23.4 pts (now 30%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 10:33ILL 4th & 3 at FAU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%−<0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12FAU 4th & 14 at FAU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:14FAU 4th & 4 at ILL 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:25ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:25ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:45FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:23ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:14FAU 4th & 24 at FAU 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−2.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:48ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:46FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 42, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:06FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:22FAU 4th & 17 at FAU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.7%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:52FAU 4th & 10 at ILL 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−6.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:57ILL 4th & 17 at FAU 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−2.1
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−5.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:50FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:11FAU 4th & 14 at ILL 17, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−3.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:33FAU 4th & 10 at ILL 13, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    4.3%−4.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:16ILL 4th & 9 at FAU 45, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    94.4%−0.8
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FAU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:00FAU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:46ILL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:45ILL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:11ILL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:19FAU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:2785% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.6%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
84.6%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the ILL 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
84.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 10 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
84.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 22 yds to the FAU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
84.6%
Reggie Love III run for 5 yds to the FAU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+6
84.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kenari Wilcher for 6 yds to the FAU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
84.6%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the FAU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
84.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+5
84.6%
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the FAU 21Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+2
83.5%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the FAU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:2117% → 18%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
83.3%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the FAU 23Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+11
83.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 11 yds to the FAU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
83.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Larry McCammon for 6 yds to the FAU 40Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
83.1%
Larry McCammon run for 5 yds to the FAU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
83.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+8
83.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 8 yds Tony Johnson fumbled, recovered by FAU Tony JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 18
OWN 37
+4
83.4%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the FAU 41Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
82.3%
Logan Lupo punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:0982% → 82%
Q1 7:12
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
82.1%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the ILL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 16
OWN 14
+12
82.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 12 yds to the ILL 26Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
82.2%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
82.1%
Illinois Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ILL 14Similar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
81.5%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Xavier Peters for a loss of 3 yards to the ILL 28 Luke Altmyer fumbled, recovered by FAU Jayden Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:4920% → 20%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+21
80.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 21 yds to the ILL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
80.1%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the ILL 6Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
79.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carter BoatwrightSimilar
Q1 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
80.1%
PENALTY FAU False Start (Burton,Je'Quan) 5 yards from ILL06 to ILL11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
80.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the ILL 4Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
79.6%
Logan Lupo 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:4980% → 78%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.6%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the ILL 26Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
79.5%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the ILL 24Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-7
79.1%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Marlon Bradley for a loss of 7 yards to the ILL 17Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+20
78.0%
Hugh Robertson punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FAU 47 for a 1ST down , LaJohntay Wester returns for 20 yds to the FAU 37 for a 1ST down Illinois Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Hugh Robertson) to the FAU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+20
78.0%
Hugh Robertson punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ILL 38 for a 1ST down , LaJohntay Wester returns for 20 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST down Illinois Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Hugh Robertson) to the ILL 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:2522% → 28%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
77.8%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
77.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to BJ Alexander for 5 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+10
77.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 10 yds to the ILL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
72.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 19 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:0773% → 78%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
72.7%
Josh McCray run for 4 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+11
72.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 11 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
73.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 6 yds to the ILL 45Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
73.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 6 yds to the FAU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
73.8%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the FAU 46Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+46
78.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Griffin Moore for 46 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:0124% → 26%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 5 yds to the FAU 30Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
76.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 10 yds to the FAU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
75.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the FAU 35Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+7
76.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the FAU 42Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+4
76.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 4 yds to the FAU 46Similar
Q2 9:45
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
74.4%
Logan Lupo punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2274% → 72%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
73.7%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the ILL 13Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+2
73.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Reggie Love III for 2 yds to the ILL 11Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 10
OWN 11
0
72.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 10
OWN 11
+12
71.8%
Hugh Robertson punt for 63 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 12 yds to the FAU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:0927% → 26%
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
73.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
74.0%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the FAU 28Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-14
74.5%
Florida Atlantic Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Je'Quan Burton) to the FAU 14Similar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 24
OWN 14
+15
73.8%
Logan Lupo punt for 55 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 15 yds to the ILL 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2675% → 72%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
74.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Malik ElzySimilar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
73.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Malik ElzySimilar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
73.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
72.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the FAU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:0228% → 29%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+20
72.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 20 yds to the FAU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
71.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to BJ Alexander for 9 yds to the FAU 42Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
70.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to BJ AlexanderSimilar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
71.4%
Michael Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the FAU 42Similar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
70.7%
Logan Lupo punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:0171% → 82%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
71.1%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the ILL 17Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+14
71.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 14 yds to the ILL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
71.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 14 yds to the ILL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
73.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the FAU 47Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+42
74.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 42 yds to the FAU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
74.8%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the FAU 4Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
74.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 3 yds to the FAU 7Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
82.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 7 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3918% → 17%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Jackson Sumlin for 7 yds to the FAU 32Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
82.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Larry McCammonSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
82.9%
Logan Lupo punt for 66 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15END OF HALF
10 plays · 41 yds · 1:0681% → 82%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+7
80.5%
Reggie Love III run for 7 yds to the ILL 9Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 3
OWN 9
+10
80.3%
Josh McCray run for 10 yds to the ILL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
80.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 10 yds to the ILL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
80.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+10
80.4%
Luke Altmyer run for 10 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
81.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Reggie Love III for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
50
0
82.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
50
-7
82.1%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Marlon Bradley for a loss of 7 yards to the ILL 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 3:3823% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for 7 yds to the FAU 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
75.9%
Daniel Richardson run for 3 yds to the FAU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
76.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
77.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 4 yds to the FAU 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
76.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the FAU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
75.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
76.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tony Johnson for no gain to the FAU 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-7
76.7%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Keith Randolph Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the FAU 39Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 17
OWN 39
0
77.7%
Logan Lupo punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ILL 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17TD
10 plays · 94 yds · 3:1176% → 87%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
75.7%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+7
75.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Henry Boyer for 7 yds to the ILL 13Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+8
75.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 8 yds to the ILL 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
76.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 2 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-5
76.2%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Chris Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the ILL 18Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 13
OWN 18
+60
75.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 45 yds to the FAU 37 for a 1ST down Florida Atlantic Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Romain Mungin) to the FAU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+19
79.2%
Aidan Laughery run for 19 yds to the FAU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.6%
Aidan Laughery run for 3 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18MISSED FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 2:1915% → 16%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.8%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the FAU 27Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+25
84.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 25 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
83.0%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the ILL 47Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
82.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+10
83.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Richardson,Daniel sacked for loss of 9 yards to the FAU44 (Jacas,Gabe) PENALTY ILL Holding (Scott,Xavier) 10 yards from ILL47 to ILL37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
82.2%
Illinois Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Miles Scott) to the ILL 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
80.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
80.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
82.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Jackson SumlinSimilar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+32
83.8%
Logan Lupo 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19FG
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:5588% → 92%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+61
87.5%
Reggie Love III run for 61 yds to the FAU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
88.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the FAU 18Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+2
88.2%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the FAU 16Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-10
87.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass complete short right to Bryant,Pat for 0 yards to the FAU16 PENALTY ILL Holding (Crisler,Zy) 10 yards from FAU16 to FAU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 17
OPP 26
0
87.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Josh McCraySimilar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 17
OPP 26
+44
91.6%
Caleb Griffin 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20DOWNS
13 plays · 62 yds · 4:3911% → 10%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
89.1%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the FAU 23Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
89.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Javion PoseySimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+7
89.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Devin Price for 7 yds to the FAU 30Similar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+25
88.6%
Larry McCammon run for 25 yds to the ILL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
86.6%
Larry McCammon run for 10 yds to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
86.0%
Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Xavier Scott) to the ILL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
85.7%
Larry McCammon run for 3 yds to the ILL 16Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 13
OPP 16
-5
86.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Richardson,Daniel pass complete short right to Price,Devin for 10 yards to the ILL06 (Scott,Xavier) PENALTY FAU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Boatwright,Carter) 5 yards from ILL16 to ILL21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 18
OPP 21
+2
87.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 23
-5
88.7%
PENALTY FAU False Start (Robinson,Marquice) 5 yards from ILL23 to ILL28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 25
OPP 28
+11
88.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 11 yds to the ILL 17Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 14
OPP 17
0
90.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
96.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 1 yd Hank Beatty fumbled, recovered by FAU Jayden WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2713% → 11%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
87.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
87.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Tony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
88.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Tony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 10
OPP 13
0
89.3%
Daniel Richardson pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 5:1797% → 98%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
97.3%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the ILL 21Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
97.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for 8 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
97.3%
Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the ILL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
97.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Josh McCray for 6 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
97.4%
Josh McCray run for 7 yds to the ILL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
97.5%
Josh McCray run for 8 yds to the FAU 49Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+3
97.4%
Josh McCray run for 3 yds to the FAU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
97.6%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd to the FAU 45Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
97.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Griffin MooreSimilar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
97.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
98.4%
Hugh Robertson punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24TD
15 plays · 97 yds · 3:576% → 30%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
93.6%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the FAU 3Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+9
93.6%
Larry McCammon run for 9 yds to the FAU 12Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 1
OWN 12
+4
94.8%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the FAU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
94.5%
Larry McCammon run for 1 yd to the FAU 15Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+1
94.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 1 yd to the FAU 16Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+13
94.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Larry McCammon for 13 yds to the FAU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
94.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 1 yd to the FAU 30Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
94.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+34
94.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 34 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
93.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Jackson SumlinSimilar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
93.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Michael Johnson Jr. for 5 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+22
93.2%
Larry McCammon run for 22 yds to the ILL 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
69.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to BJ Alexander for 9 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25END OF GAME
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:1989% → 97%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.7%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
88.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Henry Boyer for 9 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
89.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 6 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+14
90.0%
Josh McCray run for 14 yds to the FAU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
95.4%
Josh McCray run for 5 yds to the FAU 39Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+7
96.3%
Josh McCray run for 7 yds to the FAU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+25
96.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 25 yds to the FAU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
97.0%
L. Altmyer takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:19
Daniel Richardson pass complete to BJ Alexander for 9 yds for a TD (Logan Lupo KICK)
-23.4
TD · Q2 1:45
Luke Altmyer run for 7 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q3 8:11
Aidan Laughery run for 3 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin PAT MISSED)
+7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com