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MISS

Ole Miss 10 at Alabama 24

ALA
2023 · Week 4 · Sep 23, 2023 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:13 · Caden Davis 34 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior+9.8Home team on offense−4.1Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:55: Jaxson Dart run for 10 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +2.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:09: Will Reichard 23 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +5.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:29: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jalen Hale for 33 yds for a TD (T. Simpson Run For Two-point Conversion) — ALA win probability +14.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:34: Caden Davis 35 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +4.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:10: Jase McClellan run for 8 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +7.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 12:59MISS 4th & 8 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:57ALA 4th & 14 at MISS 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:36ALA 4th & 12 at ALA 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:15MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 28, up 4
    Close callPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:44MISS 4th & 25 at MISS 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−3.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:42ALA 4th & 22 at MISS 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:03MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 41, up 1
    Close callPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:01ALA 4th & 18 at ALA 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−3.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:13MISS 4th & 6 at ALA 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−2.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:09ALA 4th & 4 at MISS 5, down 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%−0.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−9.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:38MISS 4th & 1 at ALA 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.1%−2.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−10.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:34MISS 4th & 6 at ALA 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−8.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:34MISS 4th & 20 at MISS 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:15ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:55MISS 4th & 8 at MISS 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:50MISS 4th & 23 at MISS 45, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:06MISS 4th & 16 at ALA 18, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 0 of 2MISS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 3:55MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:29ALA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:10ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:5131% → 31%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.4%
Dayton Wade run for 2 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+21
69.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 21 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
69.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q1 13:49
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
69.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Quinshon JudkinsSimilar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+2
69.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 8
50
0
69.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the ALA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 5:5669% → 68%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
69.0%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the ALA 15Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+2
69.0%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the ALA 17Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+20
68.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 20 yds to the ALA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
68.9%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the ALA 42Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+18
69.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 18 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
69.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 8 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+6
69.3%
Roydell Williams run for 6 yds to the MISS 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
69.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 6 yds to the MISS 20Similar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+1
69.1%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the MISS 21Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 5
OPP 21
-9
68.8%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Suntarine Perkins for a loss of 9 yards to the MISS 30Similar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+48
68.3%
Will Reichard 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5131% → 36%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
69.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 40 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
67.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 2 yds to the ALA 37Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+16
68.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 16 yds to the ALA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
67.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 14 yds to the ALA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
67.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the ALA 6Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
67.0%
PENALTY OM False Start (Prieskorn,Caden) 5 yards from ALA06 to ALA11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
67.2%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Dayton Wade for 1 yd to the ALA 10Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
64.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 10 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0864% → 63%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
63.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 1 yd to the ALA 28Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
62.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q1 2:44
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-5
62.6%
PENALTY ALA Delay Of Game 5 yards from ALA28 to ALA23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:36
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
63.0%
James Burnip punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1535% → 35%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
64.8%
(02:36) Shotgun Dart,Jaxson pass complete short middle to Wade,Dayton for 0 yards to the OM 21 (Downs,Caleb) PENALTY OM Illegal Shift 5 yards from OM 21 to OM 16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
64.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+12
64.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 12 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
64.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
64.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6INT
12 plays · 66 yds · 6:1964% → 63%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.7%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
63.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Roydell Williams for 3 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
63.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Roydell Williams for 7 yds to the ALA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+30
63.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jalen Hale for 30 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
64.9%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the MISS 34Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+2
64.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+11
63.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 11 yds to the MISS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
64.4%
Jase McClellan run for 8 yds to the MISS 13Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+6
64.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the MISS 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
63.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for no gain to the MISS 7Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
63.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the MISS 9Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
62.9%
Jalen Milroe pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 1:4139% → 39%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
61.0%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Tim Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 18Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
61.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for no gain to the MISS 18Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-9
61.7%
Jaxson Dart sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the MISS 9Similar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 21
OWN 9
-4
61.4%
(08:03) PENALTY OM False Start 4 yards from OM 09 to OM 05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 25
OWN 5
0
61.3%
Fraser Masin punt blocked by Ja'Corey Brooks, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 1 blocked by Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8FG
5 plays · -21 yds · 1:1962% → 58%
Q2 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+13
62.0%
run for 13 yds to the MISS 14 fumbled, recovered by ALA Jalen MilroeSimilar
Q2 6:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-4
61.1%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Jamond Gordon for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 18Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
-4
58.8%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Ladarius Tennison for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 22Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 22
+40
57.7%
Will Reichard 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2940% → 40%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
59.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the MISS 41Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
58.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
58.6%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
60.4%
Fraser Masin punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the ALA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
14 plays · 18 yds · 3:5160% → 57%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
60.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 2 yds to the ALA 12Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+5
59.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the ALA 7Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 13
OWN 7
+22
58.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 22 yds to the ALA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
59.5%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the ALA 23Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 16
OWN 23
-5
58.3%
(02:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Milroe,Jalen pass complete short left to Niblack,Amari for 27 yards to the ALA50 (Young,Isheem) PENALTY ALA Illegal Shift 5 yards from ALA23 to ALA18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 21
OWN 18
+3
59.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 3 yds to the ALA 21Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 18
OWN 21
+15
57.7%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Milroe,Jalen pass incomplete deep left to Bond,Isaiah PENALTY OM Pass Interference (Anthony,Daijahn) 15 yards from ALA21 to ALA36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
60.3%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
59.7%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-12
59.5%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Suntarine Perkins for a loss of 12 yards to the ALA 28Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
57.1%
James Burnip punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 0:3241% → 42%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
58.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Kyirin Heath for 12 yds to the MISS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
57.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 9 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+6
56.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+25
56.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 10 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Chris Braswell) to the ALA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
54.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
54.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the ALA 17Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
55.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
57.9%
Caden Davis 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
58.7%
J. Milroe takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:4561% → 68%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jase McClellanSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+54
60.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 54 yds to the MISS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
65.4%
Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MISS 20Similar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 9
OPP 20
+4
64.8%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the MISS 16Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+5
64.7%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the MISS 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
64.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the MISS 10Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+4
64.6%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the MISS 6Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+1
63.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the MISS 5Similar
Q3 11:09
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
68.1%
Will Reichard 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:3934% → 37%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
65.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 37Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
65.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MISS 41Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
63.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
63.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MISS 49Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
62.6%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted, Terrion Arnold return for 37 yds to the ALA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:3569% → 81%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
68.9%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the ALA 41Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
67.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 11 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
70.3%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the MISS 44Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+1
70.4%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the MISS 43Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+10
69.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 10 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
84.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jalen Hale for 33 yds for a TD (T. Simpson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
81.3%
PENALTY OM Face Mask (Montgomery,Monty) 15 yards from ALA35 to ALA50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 5:0219% → 24%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
81.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for no gain to the MISS 24Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+31
82.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 31 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
79.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the ALA 42Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+3
79.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
79.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 5 yds to the ALA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
78.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-10
78.2%
(02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Dart,Jaxson pass incomplete short left to Bentley IV,Ulysses QB hurried by Marshall,Trezmen PENALTY OM Holding (James,Jeremy) 10 yards from ALA32 to ALA42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 18
OPP 42
-10
80.8%
Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ALA 42Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 18
OPP 42
+8
81.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 8 yds to the ALA 34Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+9
82.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the ALA 25Similar
Q3 0:38
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
82.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the ALA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
79.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Ulysses Bentley IVSimilar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
80.4%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the ALA 18Similar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
81.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q3 0:34
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
76.3%
Caden Davis 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5084% → 95%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.6%
Jase McClellan run for 13 yds to the ALA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
85.1%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
85.3%
Jase McClellan run for 9 yds to the ALA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
86.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 21 yds to the MISS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
87.2%
Jase McClellan run for 22 yds to the MISS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.8%
Jase McClellan run for 8 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:369% → 8%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
91.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 11 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
90.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the MISS 27Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 11
OWN 27
0
92.1%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Quinshon JudkinsSimilar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
92.3%
Ole Miss Penalty, Holding Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 20
OWN 18
0
92.5%
Fraser Masin punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:1297% → 97%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
96.7%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun McClellan,Jase rush right for 1 yard gain to the ALA30 (Prince,Deantre) PENALTY ALA Holding (Dalcourt,Darrian) 10 yards from ALA29 to ALA19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:04
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+1
96.7%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the ALA 20Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 19
OWN 20
+6
96.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the ALA 26Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+3
97.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Roydell Williams for 3 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
97.0%
James Burnip punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20DOWNS
15 plays · 55 yds · 6:048% → 5%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
92.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
92.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 4 yds to the MISS 31Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+2
92.2%
Dayton Wade run for 2 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+12
93.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 12 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
93.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 41Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+17
93.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 17 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
92.9%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Chris Braswell for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 46Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+9
93.4%
Jordan Watkins run for 9 yds to the MISS 45Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 23
OWN 45
0
95.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 23
OWN 45
+25
95.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 25 yds to the ALA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
94.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 18 yds to the ALA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
93.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the ALA 10Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-8
94.0%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 8 yards to the ALA 18 Jaxson Dart fumbled, recovered by MISS Quincy McGee , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 16
OPP 18
0
94.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 16
OPP 18
0
95.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21END OF GAME
10 plays · 22 yds · 1:5999% → 99%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
99.0%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the ALA 20Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+6
99.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the ALA 26Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+5
99.1%
PENALTY OM Offside (Gordon,Jamond) 5 yards from ALA26 to ALA31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
99.1%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the ALA 37Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
99.2%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
99.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
99.4%
J. Milroe takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:29
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jalen Hale for 33 yds for a TD (T. Simpson Run For Two-point Conversion)
+14.3
TD · Q4 12:10
Jase McClellan run for 8 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+7.6
FG · Q3 11:09
Will Reichard 23 yd FG GOOD
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com