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VAN

Vanderbilt 37 at UNLV 40

UNLV
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:15 · Marshall Nichols punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the VAN 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior−14.1Home team on offense−4.1Score differential−1.9Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:00: Jayden Maiava run for 24 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +19.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:35: AJ Swann pass complete to Justin Ball for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK) — VAN win probability +21.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:23: Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 48 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK) — UNLV win probability +33.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:12: AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK) — VAN win probability +42.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:05: Jose Pizano 36 yd FG GOOD — UNLV win probability +39.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 8 of 8VAN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:48VAN 4th & 6 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:15UNLV 4th & 23 at UNLV 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−0.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:15VAN 4th & 1 at UNLV 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:14VAN 4th & 13 at UNLV 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:15UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:12VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 19, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:48UNLV 4th & 5 at VAN 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:03VAN 4th & 11 at VAN 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:55UNLV 4th & 12 at UNLV 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−2.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:50VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:57UNLV 4th & 13 at VAN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−1.6
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−4.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:14UNLV 4th & 5 at VAN 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    47.7%−8.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00VAN 4th & 3 at UNLV 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%−0.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−6.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:23UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:16VAN 4th & 13 at UNLV 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−5.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−13.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:00UNLV 4th & 19 at UNLV 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−12.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:47VAN 4th & 10 at UNLV 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−5.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−14.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:44VAN 4th & 4 at UNLV 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−3.6
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−36.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:52VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:51VAN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:17UNLV Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:38UNLV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:00UNLV Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:35VAN Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:23UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−2.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:12VAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−3.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:1268% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
31.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 11 yds to the VAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
31.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Patrick Smith for 2 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+3
31.9%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the VAN 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+9
31.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 9 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
31.9%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for no gain to the VAN 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
31.9%
Patrick Smith run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
50
0
31.9%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q1 10:48
4TH & 6
50
0
33.6%
Matthew Hayball punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2INT TD
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:5634% → 32%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
33.6%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Ricky White for 8 yds to the UNLV 17Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+7
33.7%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Senika McKie for 7 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
33.7%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
33.7%
Donavyn Lester run for 3 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 11
OWN 23
-37
32.0%
Martel Hight 37 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Borcila Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -13 yds · 1:3132% → 32%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.3%
Jacob De Jesus run for 2 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
32.3%
PENALTY UNLV False Start (Trigg-Wright,Amani) 5 yards from UNLV27 to UNLV22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
32.2%
Doug Brumfield pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-10
32.0%
Doug Brumfield sacked by BJ Diakite for a loss of 10 yards to the UNLV 12Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-10
32.0%
Doug Brumfield sacked by BJ Diakite for a loss of 10 yards to the UNLV 12Similar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
32.0%
Marshall Nichols punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 6:0168% → 69%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
31.7%
PENALTY UNLV Offside (Johnson,Darius) 5 yards from VANDY39 to VANDY44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+2
31.6%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 46Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+6
31.6%
Sedrick Alexander run for 6 yds to the UNLV 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
31.5%
AJ Swann run for 2 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
31.5%
AJ Swann run for 6 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
31.6%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the UNLV 39Similar
Q1 7:15
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
31.9%
AJ Swann run for 2 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+31
31.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 31 yds to the UNLV 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
31.4%
AJ Swann sacked by Jerrae Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 11Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-2
31.5%
AJ Swann sacked by Cameron Oliver for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 13 AJ Swann fumbled, recovered by VAN Sedrick Alexander , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
31.6%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Justin BallSimilar
Q1 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
31.6%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Justin BallSimilar
Q1 1:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
31.4%
Jacob Borcila 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5931% → 30%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.6%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 7 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
31.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Senika McKieSimilar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
30.6%
Jayden Maiava sacked by Miles Capers for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 0:15
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
29.9%
Marshall Nichols punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the VAN 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:0969% → 78%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
31.0%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+11
31.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to Kamrean Johnson for 11 yds to the VAN 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
30.8%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the VAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
22.3%
AJ Swann pass complete to London Humphreys for 56 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 7TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:2725% → 32%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
25.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 7 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
26.1%
Timothy Conerly run for 4 yds to the VAN 21Similar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
26.1%
Timothy Conerly run for 4 yds to the VAN 21Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+21
31.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 21 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5669% → 68%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
31.3%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the VAN 19Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
31.4%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to London HumphreysSimilar
Q2 12:08
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
31.9%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Jayden McGowanSimilar
Q2 11:12
4TH & 9
OWN 19
+5
31.8%
Justin Ball run for 5 yds to the VAN 14 Justin Ball fumbled, recovered by VAN Kris WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 9FG
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2432% → 34%
Q2 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
31.6%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
31.6%
PENALTY UNLV False Start (Trigg-Wright,Amani) 5 yards from VANDY14 to VANDY19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 15
OPP 19
0
31.2%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jai'Den ThomasSimilar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+10
30.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 10 yds to the VAN 9Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+10
30.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 10 yds to the VAN 9Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
33.6%
Jose Pizano 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:1069% → 62%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
31.0%
Patrick Smith run for 5 yds to the VAN 47Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+41
37.7%
Jerrae Williams 41 Yd Fumble Return (Jose Pizano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3161% → 59%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
39.4%
Patrick Smith run for 1 yd to the VAN 23Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+2
39.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 2 yds to the VAN 21Similar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
40.5%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q2 8:03
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
40.9%
Matthew Hayball punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Jacob De Jesus at the UNLV 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:0842% → 41%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.8%
Jayden Maiava run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
42.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Senika McKie for 5 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
41.9%
Courtney Reese run for 2 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
42.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
42.0%
Courtney Reese run for 2 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
40.7%
UNLV Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+5
40.8%
Marshall Nichols punt for 50 yds , Will Sheppard returns for 5 yds to the VAN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0560% → 58%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
39.7%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to London HumphreysSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
39.9%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the VAN 27Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
40.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+22
41.7%
Matthew Hayball punt for 58 yds , Jacob De Jesus returns for 22 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14MISSED FG
16 plays · 35 yds · 3:5344% → 44%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
44.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Shelton Zeon III for 9 yds to the UNLV 46Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+1
45.7%
Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd to the UNLV 45 Jayden Maiava fumbled, recovered by VAN Jayden MaiavaSimilar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
44.8%
Donavyn Lester run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
50
+6
45.7%
Donavyn Lester run for 6 yds to the VAN 44Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-5
46.0%
PENALTY UNLV False Start (Zeon III,Shelton) 5 yards from VANDY44 to VANDY49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
45.7%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+3
45.7%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+16
45.0%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 16 yds to the VAN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
47.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the VAN 33Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+8
48.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 8 yds to the VAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
48.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for no gain to the VAN 25 Jai'Den Thomas fumbled, recovered by VAN Jai'Den ThomasSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
48.7%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 3 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 13
OPP 28
0
45.7%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Senika McKieSimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+46
43.7%
Jose Pizano 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15INT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:3859% → 60%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
40.6%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Justin BallSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
41.3%
AJ Swann run for 8 yds to the VAN 36Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+12
40.1%
Patrick Smith run for 12 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
38.2%
AJ Swann run for no gain to the VAN 48Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
40.0%
AJ Swann pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16FG
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:1651% → 54%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
50.8%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 9 yds to the VAN 19Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+6
49.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 6 yds to the VAN 13 for a 1ST down pass complete to for 6 yds to the VAN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+31
53.7%
Jose Pizano 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 4:1651% → 60%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.5%
Courtney Reese run for 1 yd to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
50.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 4 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
50.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 7 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
52.2%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Senika McKieSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
51.7%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+24
51.9%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 24 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
55.1%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Senika McKieSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
54.9%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 2 yds to the VAN 33Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+12
54.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 12 yds to the VAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
56.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 3 yds to the VAN 18Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+2
56.3%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 2 yds to the VAN 16Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
54.9%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
60.4%
Jose Pizano 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18FUMBLE
12 plays · 16 yds · 4:5543% → 43%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
56.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 2 yds to the VAN 32Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
56.2%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
54.2%
Ken Seals run for 2 yds to the VAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 8
OWN 43
+4
58.2%
Shotgun Swann,AJ pass incomplete short left to Humphreys,London PENALTY UNLV Pass Interference (Johnson,Ricky) 4 yards from VANDY43 to VANDY47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
53.8%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Junior SherrillSimilar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
54.8%
Chase Gillespie run for 4 yds to the UNLV 49Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+5
57.1%
Shotgun Seals,Ken pass incomplete short middle to McGowan,Jayden PENALTY UNLV Offside (Whitmore,Alexander) 5 yards from VANDY34 to VANDY39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
55.0%
Jayden McGowan run for 3 yds to the VAN 44Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
54.0%
Jayden McGowan run for 1 yd to the VAN 43Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
56.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the VAN 43Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-5
57.0%
AJ Swann sacked by Fred Thompkins for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 44 AJ Swann fumbled, recovered by VAN Fisher Camac , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:1966% → 86%
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
65.6%
Donavyn Lester run for 9 yds to the VAN 47Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
66.1%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 3 yds to the VAN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
67.2%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 4 yds to the VAN 48Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+19
65.4%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 19 yds to the VAN 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
67.7%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 6 yds to the VAN 23Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+1
67.7%
Donavyn Lester run for 1 yd to the VAN 24Similar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
66.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Jacob De JesusSimilar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+24
86.1%
Jayden Maiava run for 24 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:2518% → 40%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+39
81.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 39 yds to the UNLV 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
78.5%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to London HumphreysSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
81.3%
AJ Swann run for 7 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
82.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for no gain to the UNLV 18Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+6
83.4%
AJ Swann pass complete to London Humphreys for 6 yds to the UNLV 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
81.4%
Patrick Smith run for 7 yds to the UNLV 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+2
81.4%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the UNLV 3Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
59.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Justin Ball for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1273% → 74%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.1%
Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
72.7%
Jai'Den Thomas run for 8 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
72.5%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
73.6%
Marshall Nichols punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the VAN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:0734% → 36%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+40
65.7%
AJ Swann pass complete to London Humphreys for 40 yds to the UNLV 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
58.9%
Chase Gillespie run for 3 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
58.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to London HumphreysSimilar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+16
61.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 16 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
58.2%
Chase Gillespie run for 3 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 13
OPP 14
0
59.0%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Logan KyleSimilar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 13
OPP 14
0
63.1%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Will SheppardSimilar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 13
OPP 14
+32
63.9%
Jacob Borcila 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 3:1168% → 68%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
68.3%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for no gain to the UNLV 18Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
68.3%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 9 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+4
67.6%
Vincent Davis Jr. run for 4 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
69.2%
(07:35) PENALTY UNLV False Start (Ambuehl,Anton) 5 yards from UNLV31 to UNLV26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 15
OWN 26
-5
68.6%
(07:20) PENALTY UNLV False Start (Hasz,Jack) 5 yards from UNLV26 to UNLV21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 20
OWN 21
0
68.2%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 20
OWN 21
0
67.9%
Jai'Den Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 21Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 20
OWN 21
+1
66.1%
Jayden Maiava run for 1 yd to the UNLV 22Similar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 19
OWN 22
0
67.8%
Marshall Nichols punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the VAN 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24FG
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:1337% → 51%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+33
62.6%
AJ Swann pass complete to Will Sheppard for 33 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
56.7%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Junior SherrillSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
57.6%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to London HumphreysSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
60.0%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to London HumphreysSimilar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
48.7%
Jacob Borcila 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2456% → 95%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
55.8%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 13 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
58.3%
Jai'Den Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 38Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
57.7%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 6 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
59.2%
Jayden Maiava run for 5 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
61.0%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 3 yds to the VAN 48Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+48
94.5%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 48 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1113% → 60%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.0%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Jayden McGowanSimilar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.2%
AJ Swann pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+28
88.0%
AJ Swann pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 28 yds to the UNLV 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
83.1%
AJ Swann run for 13 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
40.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 27INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
57.8%
Jayden Maiava pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 28MISSED FG
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:1660% → 57%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
40.1%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the UNLV 23Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 12
OPP 23
+3
38.6%
Patrick Smith run for 3 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+5
41.2%
Patrick Smith run for 5 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q4 0:44
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
43.4%
Jacob Borcila 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 29FG
6 plays · 62 yds · 0:3957% → 96%
Q4 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.8%
Jayden Maiava pass incomplete to Senika McKieSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
56.0%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 4 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
53.2%
Jordan Younge-Humphrey run for 10 yds to the UNLV 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+48
57.1%
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Ricky White for 48 yds to the VAN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+36
96.2%
Jose Pizano 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+22
78.5%
AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 22 yds to the VAN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:12
AJ Swann pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 34 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)
-42.6
FG · Q4 0:05
Jose Pizano 36 yd FG GOOD
+39.1
TD · Q4 2:23
Jayden Maiava pass complete to Jacob De Jesus for 48 yds for a TD (Jose Pizano KICK)
+33.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com