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ALA

Alabama 17 at South Florida 3

USF
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:07 · James Burnip punt for 40 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior−47.5Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:35: Roydell Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +8.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:38: Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-Stephens — USF win probability +3.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:43: Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Jayson Littlejohn — USF win probability +4.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:24: Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the ALA 23 — ALA win probability +7.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:08: Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the USF 28 — ALA win probability +3.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 9 of 12ALA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:09ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:23USF 4th & 7 at USF 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:27ALA 4th & 4 at USF 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:09USF 4th & 6 at USF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:08USF 4th & 6 at ALA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:00ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:50USF 4th & 3 at ALA 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:07ALA 4th & 12 at USF 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    92.1%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:12USF 4th & 1 at ALA 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−0.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    9.7%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:29USF 4th & 16 at ALA 34, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:48ALA 4th & 8 at USF 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:10ALA 4th & 12 at USF 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−3.5
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:29USF 4th & 6 at USF 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:00USF 4th & 7 at USF 47, tied
    Close callWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:52ALA 4th & 17 at ALA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−2.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:54USF 4th & 3 at USF 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:40USF 4th & 2 at ALA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%−1.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−7.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:27ALA 4th & 9 at ALA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:48USF 4th & 3 at USF 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.4
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:47ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:35USF 4th & 2 at USF 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.4%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q3 4:35ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 0:33ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4198% → 98%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
1.8%
Jase McClellan run for 19 yds to the ALA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
1.9%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Jase McClellan for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 4
50
-2
1.9%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 48Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
2.0%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
2.1%
James Burnip punt for 41 yds, downed at the USF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:312% → 2%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
2.1%
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 10Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+6
2.1%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the USF 16Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 5
OWN 16
-2
2.3%
Byrum Brown sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 14Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
2.3%
Andrew Stokes punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5398% → 98%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
50
0
2.3%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 10
50
+6
2.3%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 6 yds to the USF 44Similar
Q1 10:36
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
2.4%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q1 10:27
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
2.5%
James Burnip punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:013% → 3%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
2.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
2.6%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 6 yds to the USF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
2.7%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem SimmonsSimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
2.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 4 yds to the USF 37Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
2.8%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the USF 37Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+32
2.9%
Andrew Stokes punt for 32 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 30 Kool-Aid McKinstry fumbled, recovered by USF D.J. HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:543% → 3%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
3.1%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
3.1%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+4
3.2%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the ALA 26Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+44
3.3%
John Cannon 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:2797% → 96%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
3.5%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the ALA 13Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+13
3.5%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 13 yds to the ALA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
3.7%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the ALA 27Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
3.8%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
3.9%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+5
4.0%
James Burnip punt for 60 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 5 yds to the USF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:584% → 5%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
3.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michel Dukes for 9 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+4
4.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 4 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
4.1%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the USF 35Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
4.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Nay'Quan WrightSimilar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+12
4.2%
Byrum Brown run for 12 yds to the USF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
4.6%
Michel Dukes run for 4 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-6
4.7%
Byrum Brown sacked by Deontae Lawson for a loss of 6 yards to the USF 45Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+9
4.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 9 yds to the ALA 46Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 3
OPP 46
-5
4.9%
Byrum Brown sacked by Dallas Turner and Justin Eboigbe for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:3496% → 94%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
4.5%
Tyler Buchner run for 8 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 2
OPP 41
0
4.7%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Malik Benson for no gain to the USF 41Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
4.8%
Tyler Buchner run for 3 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
5.0%
Roydell Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 40Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
5.2%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
5.3%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the USF 40Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
5.8%
James Burnip punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9DOWNS
17 plays · 52 yds · 6:196% → 9%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
6.0%
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 18Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
6.1%
Byrum Brown run for 5 yds to the USF 23Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
6.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 8 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
6.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+19
6.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
50
+2
7.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+9
7.6%
Byrum Brown run for 9 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
7.7%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
8.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 1 yd to the ALA 38Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+3
8.0%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+5
8.1%
Alabama Penalty, Defensive Offside (Dallas Turner) to the ALA 30Similar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
8.6%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the ALA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
9.3%
Nay'Quan Wright run for no gain to the ALA 28Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
9.4%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-10
9.4%
South Florida Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derek Bowman) to the ALA 38Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 20
OPP 38
+4
9.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 4 yds to the ALA 34Similar
Q2 7:29
4TH & 16
OPP 34
+6
9.3%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the ALA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:3091% → 89%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
9.3%
Jase McClellan run for no gain to the ALA 28Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+11
9.9%
Jase McClellan run for 11 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
9.5%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
9.7%
Tyler Buchner pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 9 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
9.6%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the USF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
9.6%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
10.0%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
10.3%
Tyler Buchner pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
11.1%
James Burnip punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:1812% → 12%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
11.8%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
11.9%
Byrum Brown run for 3 yds to the USF 25 Byrum Brown fumbled, recovered by ALA James SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12FG
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4890% → 90%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
10.1%
Jase McClellan run for 17 yds to the USF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
10.3%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
10.6%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the USF 5Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
11.6%
Ty Simpson sacked by Daquan Evans for a loss of 7 yards to the USF 12Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
10.3%
Will Reichard 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:2912% → 13%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 26Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
12.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the USF 34Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
12.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
13.0%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 38Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
13.2%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+3
13.0%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 41Similar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+34
13.1%
Andrew Stokes punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 10 South Florida Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Gunnar Greenwald) to the ALA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:2388% → 87%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
12.2%
Jase McClellan run for 9 yds to the ALA 34Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
11.7%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Malik BensonSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
12.2%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
12.5%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
12.7%
Jase McClellan run for 12 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:4214% → 16%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.4%
Byrum Brown run for 2 yds to the USF 27Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
14.8%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 29Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
14.7%
Byrum Brown run for 15 yds to the USF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
16.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
16.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 5 yds to the USF 49Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-5
16.9%
South Florida Penalty, False Start (Donovan Jennings) to the USF 44Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+3
16.2%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 3 yds to the USF 47Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 7
OWN 47
+3
16.4%
Gunnar Greenwald run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:5187% → 82%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
50
+4
13.5%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the USF 46Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
13.7%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the USF 45Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-5
14.3%
Alabama Penalty, False Start (Amari Niblack) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 10
50
-7
15.8%
Ty Simpson sacked by Jaelen Stokes for a loss of 7 yards to the ALA 43Similar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 17
OWN 43
+7
18.1%
James Burnip punt for 47 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 7 yds to the USF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:4619% → 22%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
19.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to K'Wan Powell for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 12Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+16
19.3%
Byrum Brown run for 16 yds to the USF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
20.2%
K'Wan Powell run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 27Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+1
20.6%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the USF 28Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+7
20.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Naiem Simmons for 7 yds to the USF 35Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
21.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 2:1480% → 90%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
20.2%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to CJ DippreSimilar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+45
21.0%
Ty Simpson pass complete to CJ Dippre for 45 yds to the USF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
18.7%
Roydell Williams run for 7 yds to the USF 32Similar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+26
18.1%
Roydell Williams run for 26 yds to the USF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
18.1%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 5 yds to the USF 1Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.6%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:4813% → 16%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
12.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 12 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
13.5%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
14.7%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 40Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+31
14.0%
Byrum Brown run for 31 yds to the ALA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
17.8%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Michael Brown-StephensSimilar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
17.8%
K'Wan Powell run for 7 yds to the ALA 22Similar
Q3 2:23
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+1
16.8%
K'Wan Powell run for 1 yd to the ALA 21Similar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 2
OPP 21
-1
16.0%
Byrum Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:0587% → 87%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-8
12.6%
Ty Simpson sacked by Jason Vaughn for a loss of 8 yards to the ALA 14Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+13
13.2%
Roydell Williams run for 13 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q3 0:17
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+5
13.0%
South Florida Penalty, Defensive Offside (Aamaris Brown) to the ALA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-6
12.5%
Ty Simpson sacked by Daquan Evans for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 26Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+2
13.3%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Roydell Williams for 2 yds to the ALA 28Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+10
13.0%
Ty Simpson run for 10 yds to the ALA 38Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 4
OWN 38
-5
12.4%
Alabama Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ALA 33Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
13.5%
James Burnip punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3615% → 14%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
14.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem SimmonsSimilar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
15.0%
K'Wan Powell run for 3 yds to the USF 18Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+4
14.6%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
14.2%
Andrew Stokes punt for 56 yds, downed at the ALA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:5686% → 87%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
13.6%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 21Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+14
14.2%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 14 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
13.2%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the ALA 38Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-4
11.1%
Ty Simpson sacked by Daquan Evans for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 34Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+7
13.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 7 yds to the ALA 41Similar
Q4 8:47
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+10
13.1%
James Burnip punt for 38 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 10 yds to the USF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:1418% → 21%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
17.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Jayson LittlejohnSimilar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
17.4%
Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 33Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+6
16.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 39Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+5
17.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 5 yds to the USF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
19.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 15 yds to the ALA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
20.9%
Byrum Brown pass intercepted, touchback. Malachi Moore return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:5187% → 98%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
13.3%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the ALA 23Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+48
12.3%
Roydell Williams run for 48 yds to the USF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
8.8%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the USF 28Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+6
9.0%
Ty Simpson run for 6 yds to the USF 22Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+1
9.2%
Jam Miller run for 1 yd to the USF 21Similar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+5
9.5%
South Florida Penalty, Defensive Offside (DJ Gordon IV) to the USF 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
8.0%
Williams, Roydell rush for 16 yards to the SOUFLA0, PENALTY ALABAMA holding (Proctor, Kadyn) 10 yards to the SOUFLA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 20
OPP 26
+12
7.8%
Roydell Williams run for 12 yds to the USF 14Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+7
6.8%
Roydell Williams run for 7 yds to the USF 7Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+3
6.7%
Ty Simpson run for 3 yds to the USF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
4.1%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the USF 2Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
4.2%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the USF 1Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.8%
Ty Simpson run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:152% → 2%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.3%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Naiem SimmonsSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
2.2%
Byrum Brown sacked by Chris Braswell for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:35
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
-8.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:24
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the ALA 23
-7.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:43
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Jayson Littlejohn
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com