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MINN

Minnesota 13 at North Carolina 31

UNC
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:01 · Mark Crawford punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Pregame prior+1.5Home team on offense+28.6Garbage-time factor+7.8Score differential+11.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:17: Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +6.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:47: Dragan Kesich 23 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +2.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:23: Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 19 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +5.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:30: Darius Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +5.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:00: British Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +4.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:00UNC 4th & 1 at MINN 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:00UNC 4th & 14 at MINN 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:42MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:25MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:47MINN 4th & 5 at UNC 5, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.6%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:52MINN 4th & 5 at MINN 47, down 11
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:22MINN 4th & 8 at UNC 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:56UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 45, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:40MINN 4th & 1 at UNC 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−4.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−6.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:26UNC 4th & 10 at MINN 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−9.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:07MINN 4th & 9 at UNC 43, down 11
    Close callPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:05UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:23MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 40, down 11
    Close callPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:01MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:47UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:17UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:23UNC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:30MINN Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:00UNC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0672% → 73%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
71.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 3 yds to the UNC 28Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
71.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 18 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
71.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 48Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+4
71.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the MINN 48Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
71.8%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the MINN 45Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
71.7%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the MINN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
71.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
71.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 46Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+46
72.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 46 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2INT
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:1528% → 28%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
72.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Darius Taylor for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
50
0
72.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Corey Crooms Jr.Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
50
+11
72.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 11 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
71.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 1 yd to the UNC 38Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+8
72.1%
Darius Taylor run for 8 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+5
72.3%
Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the UNC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
72.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass intercepted Power Echols return for no gain to the UNC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 35 yds · 5:1673% → 74%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
73.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 18Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
73.1%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+14
72.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 14 yds to the UNC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
73.2%
Minnesota Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the UNC 37Similar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 5
OWN 37
-1
73.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 36Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+1
73.7%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the UNC 37Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+6
73.5%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the UNC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
74.1%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNC 38Similar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+17
73.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 17 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
74.4%
British Brooks run for no gain to the MINN 45Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
74.4%
British Brooks run for 2 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 8
OPP 43
-6
74.3%
Drake Maye sacked by Kyler Baugh and Jah Joyner for a loss of 6 yards to the MINN 49Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
73.5%
Drake Maye punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MINN 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:1127% → 26%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
73.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 13 yds to the MINN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
73.6%
Darius Taylor run for 16 yds to the MINN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
73.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Corey Crooms Jr.Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
73.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Sean Tyler for no gain to the MINN 42Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
73.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
74.3%
Mark Crawford punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1574% → 81%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
74.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 22Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+17
74.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 17 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
74.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 40Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
74.9%
Drake Maye run for 4 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+55
75.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 55 yds to the MINN 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4421% → 20%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.2%
Darius Taylor run for no gain to the MINN 25Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
79.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
79.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Brevyn Spann-FordSimilar
Q2 12:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
79.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-17
80.9%
Drake Maye pass intercepted Jack Henderson return for 17 yds to the UNC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8FG
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2122% → 23%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
78.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
78.1%
Darius Taylor run for 9 yds to the UNC 7Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
78.8%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the UNC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
78.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
78.6%
Darius Taylor run for no gain to the UNC 5Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q2 9:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
77.0%
Dragan Kesich 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9INT
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:3279% → 81%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 7 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
79.2%
British Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 30Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
78.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 14 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
80.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 4 yds to the UNC 48Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+6
80.1%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
80.4%
North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNC 44Similar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+9
80.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 9 yds to the MINN 47Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
80.4%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+12
79.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 12 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
80.8%
Drake Maye pass intercepted Chris Collins return for no gain to the MINN 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:0321% → 20%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
79.0%
Darius Taylor run for 14 yds to the MINN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
78.4%
Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the MINN 47Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
78.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
78.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:52
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
80.4%
Mark Crawford punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2280% → 88%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
80.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
80.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 5 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q2 4:10
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
80.0%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the UNC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
81.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 31Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+39
81.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 39 yds to the MINN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
82.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 11 yds to the MINN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
87.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 19 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:4713% → 22%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
86.8%
North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the MINN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
86.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the MINN 42Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+25
86.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 25 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
84.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 15 yds to the UNC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
85.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 4 yds to the UNC 14Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
84.2%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds to the UNC 12Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+7
84.3%
North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the UNC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
83.6%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the UNC 2Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.8%
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.1%
British Brooks run for 1 yd to the UNC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 4:3019% → 22%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.9%
Darius Taylor run for 3 yds to the MINN 28Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
80.8%
Darius Taylor run for 8 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
80.6%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the MINN 40Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+13
80.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Sean Tyler for 13 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
79.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 18 yds to the UNC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
78.6%
Sean Tyler run for no gain to the UNC 29Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
79.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Daniel JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+2
80.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 2 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+45
78.0%
Dragan Kesich 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:2180% → 80%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 11 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
80.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 8 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+2
81.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 2 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
82.0%
Drake Maye sacked by Danny Striggow for a loss of 5 yards to the UNC 41Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+4
81.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 4 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
80.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Andre Greene Jr.Similar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
79.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the MINN 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16INT
9 plays · 53 yds · 4:5521% → 21%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+28
79.2%
Darius Taylor run for 28 yds to the MINN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
77.8%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
79.1%
Sean Tyler run for no gain to the MINN 43Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+13
79.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 13 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
78.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Le'Meke BrockingtonSimilar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
78.6%
Darius Taylor run for 5 yds to the UNC 39Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
78.9%
Cole Kramer run for 4 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+1
80.1%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the UNC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
79.3%
Cole Kramer pass intercepted, touchback. Armani Chatman return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 1:2085% → 87%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
85.1%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
84.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 5 yds to the UNC 25Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+13
84.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 13 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+38
86.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 38 yds to the MINN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
87.6%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
87.5%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
86.6%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
86.9%
Noah Burnette 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:1114% → 14%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.4%
Darius Taylor run for 10 yds to the MINN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
85.5%
Darius Taylor run for 4 yds to the MINN 39Similar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+17
84.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 17 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
83.7%
Darius Taylor run for 1 yd to the UNC 43Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
83.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 9
OPP 43
0
84.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 9
OPP 43
0
86.4%
Mark Crawford punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5589% → 88%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+17
88.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 17 yds to the UNC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
88.8%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UNC 27Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-10
88.7%
North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNC 17Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 20
OWN 17
0
88.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for no gain to the UNC 17Similar
Q4 12:46
3RD & 20
OWN 17
+12
88.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to British Brooks for 12 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+38
88.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MINN 48 Minnesota Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MINN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3813% → 10%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
86.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
87.2%
Darius Taylor run for 8 yds to the MINN 41Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 2
OWN 41
-1
87.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Jacolbe Cowan for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 40Similar
Q4 10:23
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
89.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 36 yds, downed at the UNC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 5:1591% → 99%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
91.4%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+17
91.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 17 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
92.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 17 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
92.6%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
92.6%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the MINN 31Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+12
92.6%
Drake Maye run for 12 yds to the MINN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
93.3%
British Brooks run for 3 yds to the MINN 16Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+4
93.4%
British Brooks run for 4 yds to the MINN 12Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+5
93.5%
Minnesota Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MINN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
94.3%
British Brooks run for 6 yds to the MINN 1Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.4%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the MINN 1Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
British Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:542% → 2%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 1 yd to the MINN 26Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
98.2%
Mark Crawford punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:3299% → 99%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
98.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
98.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+4
98.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
99.0%
British Brooks run for 1 yd to the UNC 39Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+7
99.0%
British Brooks run for 7 yds to the UNC 46Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+2
99.1%
British Brooks run for 2 yds to the UNC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:17
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q2 0:30
Darius Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
-5.8
TD · Q2 2:23
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 19 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com