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NMSU

New Mexico State 27 at New Mexico 17

UNM
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.4UNM 50.5%Luke Drzewiecki 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 8:25
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:25 · Luke Drzewiecki 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Home team on offense+0.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:32: Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:01: Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +9.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:41: Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 31 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +13.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:16: Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK) — UNM win probability +19.9 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 10:06: Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +29.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 8:25UNM 4th & 7 at NMSU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:19NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 18, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:31NMSU 4th & 2 at UNM 9, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%−1.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−7.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:57UNM 4th & 21 at UNM 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−3.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:00NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:29UNM 4th & 14 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−2.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:17NMSU 4th & 12 at UNM 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 8:33UNM 4th & 15 at UNM 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:01NMSU 4th & 1 at UNM 44, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    83.0%−4.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:36UNM 4th & 8 at UNM 40, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:49UNM 4th & 4 at NMSU 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−1.7
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−3.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:32NMSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:01UNM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:41NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:16UNM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:06NMSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1FG
13 plays · 78 yds · 6:2948% → 51%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
48.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+13
48.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Sherod White for 13 yds to the UNM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
48.4%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNM 24Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+26
48.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
50
+3
49.0%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+14
49.2%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 14 yds to the NMSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
49.6%
Dorian Lewis run for 7 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+19
49.8%
Dorian Lewis run for 19 yds to the NMSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
50.0%
(10:06) CROSKEY-MERRITT, Jacory rush to the right for a loss of 6 yards to the NMS13 (WEBB, Sterling), clock 10:02. PENALTY NMS Holding enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the NMS7 to the NMS4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-9
50.1%
Dylan Hopkins sacked by Gabriel Iniguez for a loss of 9 yards to the NMSU 12Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
50.4%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 5 yds to the NMSU 7Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
50.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
50.5%
Luke Drzewiecki 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0049% → 49%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
50.6%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMSU 13Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
50.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
51.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 7
OWN 13
+5
51.5%
(07:26) HAYNES, Zach punt 49 yards to the UNM38, WYSONG, Luke returned 18 yards to the NMS44 (EBERLE, Charlie), clock 07:20. PENALTY UNM Running Into the kicker on GAINER, Destin enforced 5 yards from the NMS13 to the NMS18. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
51.4%
Zach Haynes punt for 52 yds , Luke Wysong returns for no gain to the UNM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3FUMBLE
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:1251% → 52%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
50.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
50.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+17
50.1%
Dylan Hopkins run for 17 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
51.2%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 8 yds to the UNM 46Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
51.9%
Sherod White run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
50
0
52.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 10
50
+31
52.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jacory Croskey-Merritt for 31 yds to the NMSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
53.0%
Sherod White run for 7 yds to the NMSU 12 Sherod White fumbled, recovered by NMSU Dylan EarlySimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
51.6%
(03:49) PAVIA, Diego pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell broken up by MARTIN, Donte at the NMS25, clock 03:44. PENALTY NMS Holding on VAIPULU, AJ enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the NMS12 to the NMS6 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 5:1048% → 55%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 16
OWN 6
+15
51.8%
Star Thomas run for 15 yds to the NMSU 21Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+2
51.5%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
51.6%
Eli Stowers run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 18 Eli Stowers fumbled, recovered by NMSUSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+8
51.9%
Monte Watkins run for 8 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+29
52.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 29 yds to the UNM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
50.3%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the UNM 39Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+6
50.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordan Smith for 6 yds to the UNM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
49.8%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNM 30Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+28
49.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Ron Tiavaasue for 28 yds to the UNM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.0%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:3047% → 57%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
47.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 14 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
48.0%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNM 36Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+41
47.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Luke Wysong for 41 yds to the NMSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
50.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 19 yds to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
50.2%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 3 yds to the NMSU 1Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.2%
Justin Holaday run for no gain to the NMSU 1Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.0%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 4:2946% → 52%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
54.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 19 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
51.9%
Diego Pavia run for 26 yds to the UNM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
50.9%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the UNM 27Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+10
50.7%
Diego Pavia run for 10 yds to the UNM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
50.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
50.8%
Monte Watkins run for 4 yds to the UNM 13Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+4
52.1%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNM 9Similar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+26
47.6%
Ethan Albertson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:2654% → 52%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
53.6%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 25Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 11
OWN 25
-10
53.3%
(03:38) HOPKINS, Dylan pass to the right complete for 5 yards to HIXON, Jeremiah caught at the UNM21 and advanced to the UNM30 (PETERSON, Gabe;ROWSER, Myles), clock 03:32. PENALTY UNM Illegal Block in the Back on ERICKSON, Andrew enforced 10 yards from the UNM25 to the UNM15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 21
OWN 15
0
53.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 21
OWN 15
0
52.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 21
OWN 15
0
51.5%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 48 yds, downed at the NMSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:0652% → 68%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
48.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
48.5%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+7
46.6%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the UNM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
46.0%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the UNM 48Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+17
45.8%
Eli Stowers pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 17 yds to the UNM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
32.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 31 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9END OF HALF
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:3937% → 40%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
36.9%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 10 yds to the UNM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
37.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
36.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Duece Jones for 11 yds to the UNM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
39.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:5264% → 63%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 3 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
35.9%
Diego Pavia sacked by Kyler Drake and Alec Marenco for a loss of 3 yards to the NMSU 25Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
37.3%
(13:23) PAVIA, Diego pass short to the right complete for 19 yards to HUDSON, Trent caught at the NMS29 and advanced to the NMS44 (MORRIS, Zach), out of bounds, clock 13:17. PENALTY NMS Chop Block on JONES, Jamoni enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the NMS25 to the NMS13 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+17
37.5%
Diego Pavia run for 17 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
37.3%
Zach Haynes punt for 56 yds, downed at the UNM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:2639% → 34%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
39.1%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 5 yds to the UNM 45Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+9
39.9%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 9 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
39.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 14
50
0
36.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 14
50
0
35.5%
Dylan Hopkins run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 14
50
0
34.1%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12FG
15 plays · 61 yds · 8:0865% → 76%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
34.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordan Smith for 4 yds to the NMSU 13Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+8
34.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 8 yds to the NMSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
32.6%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+11
30.9%
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the NMSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
30.0%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the NMSU 46Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+8
28.3%
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the UNM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
27.8%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the UNM 38Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+10
26.8%
Monte Watkins run for 10 yds to the UNM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
25.4%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the UNM 24Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
25.1%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the UNM 24Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
26.6%
(02:15) PAVIA, Diego pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HUDSON, Trent broken up by MORRIS, Zach at the UNM0, clock 02:10. PENALTY UNM Pass Interference on MORRIS, Zach NMS Personal Foul on TIAVAASUE, Ron UNM Personal Foul on MORENCO, Alec UNM Pass Interference on MORRIS, Zach , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-15
26.5%
PAVIA, Diego pass up the middle complete for 9 yards to BRADY, Jonathan caught at the UNM17 and advanced to the UNM15 (SMITH, Aaron), clock 02:04. PENALTY NMS Pass Interference on WHITFORD, Thomaz enforced 15 yards to the UNM39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 21
OPP 39
+9
28.5%
Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the UNM 30Similar
Q3 1:17
4TH & 12
OPP 30
+47
24.1%
Ethan Albertson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:0023% → 45%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
23.2%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 8 yds to the UNM 33Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
24.2%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 5 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
24.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 11 yds to the UNM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
25.2%
Dorian Lewis run for 10 yds to the NMSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
26.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Duece Jones for 11 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
26.9%
(13:57) QB Keeper HOPKINS, Dylan rush to the left for no gain to the NMS30 (SELDON, Andre), clock 13:47. PENALTY NMS Personal Foul on ELLIOT, Keyshaun enforced 15 yards from the NMS30 to the NMS15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
27.0%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt run for 1 yd to the NMSU 14Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+8
26.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Dorian Lewis for 8 yds to the NMSU 6Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+4
24.8%
Dorian Lewis run for 4 yds to the NMSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
24.9%
Dorian Lewis run for 1 yd to the NMSU 1Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
24.7%
Dorian Lewis run for no gain to the NMSU 1Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q4 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
14.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:3216% → 13%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
15.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 15 yds to the UNM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
17.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
16.5%
Dorian Lewis run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNM 35Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
13.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
13.3%
Aaron Rodriguez punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:2487% → 89%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
12.6%
Monte Watkins run for 4 yds to the UNM 49Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
11.7%
(07:39) WATKINS, Monte rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the UNM46 (POLA-GATES, Noa), out of bounds, clock 07:32. PENALTY UNM Offsides on LOPEZ, Gabriel enforced 5 yards from the UNM49 to the UNM44 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
10.3%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the UNM 44Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
9.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
10.6%
Zach Haynes punt for 31 yds, downed at the UNM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17MISSED FG
22 plays · 75 yds · 5:0611% → 6%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
10.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 5 yds to the UNM 18Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+4
9.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 4 yds to the UNM 22Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+6
9.8%
Dorian Lewis run for 6 yds to the UNM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
9.8%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (Ryan Davis) to the UNM 23Similar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 15
OWN 23
+8
9.1%
Dylan Hopkins run for 8 yds to the UNM 31Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+7
9.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jeremiah Hixon for 7 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
8.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
6.5%
Dorian Lewis run for 2 yds to the UNM 40Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
6.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+20
5.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to D.J. Washington for 20 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
7.1%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
6.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
8.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
7.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+11
6.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Caleb Medford for 11 yds to the NMSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
7.4%
New Mexico Penalty, False Start (Shancco Matautia) to the NMSU 23Similar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 15
OPP 23
0
6.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+9
6.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Duece Jones for 9 yds to the NMSU 14Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+2
6.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Dorian Lewis for 2 yds to the NMSU 12Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
5.6%
Luke Drzewiecki 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
2.8%
(00:46) [SG] Kneel down by NMS at NMS19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:22.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:06
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 75 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-29.9
TD · Q4 10:16
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 1 yd for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)
+19.9
TD · Q2 0:41
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 31 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com