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KSU

Kansas State 27 at Missouri 30

MIZ
2023 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2023 · Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadKSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreKSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:51 · Harrison Mevis 53 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense+1.8Pregame prior−3.8Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Blowout margin−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:39: Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK) — KSU win probability +19.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 14:48: Harrison Mevis 25 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +7.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:24: Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 26 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +38.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:25: Chris Tennant 26 yd FG GOOD — KSU win probability +11.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: KSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Harrison Mevis 61 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +33.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 10KSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 3:58MIZ 4th & 8 at KSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    86% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−1.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:03KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:51MIZ 4th & 7 at KSU 36, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.9%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:36MIZ 4th & 1 at KSU 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    36.1%−8.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:25KSU 4th & 19 at MIZ 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:24MIZ 4th & 16 at MIZ 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:28KSU 4th & 5 at KSU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:20MIZ 4th & 6 at MIZ 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:44MIZ 4th & 15 at MIZ 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−3.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:07KSU 4th & 4 at MIZ 28, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.1%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−8.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:31MIZ 4th & 9 at MIZ 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:48MIZ 4th & 7 at KSU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−13.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:47KSU 4th & 4 at KSU 42, up 4
    Close callPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:46MIZ 4th & 9 at MIZ 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:53KSU 4th & 2 at KSU 43, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:25KSU 4th & 8 at MIZ 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−3.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−17.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:46MIZ 4th & 15 at MIZ 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−14.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:25KSU 4th & 14 at KSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−7.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3KSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:46KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:57MIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:05KSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:36MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:39KSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:24MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1455% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.0%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the KSU 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
45.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 9 yds to the KSU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+17
45.0%
Will Howard run for 17 yds to the MIZ 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
45.0%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 13 yds to the MIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
45.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 10 yds to the MIZ 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
45.0%
DJ Giddens run for 9 yds to the MIZ 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+13
45.0%
Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 13 yds to the MIZ 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
45.0%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
45.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the MIZ 10Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
45.4%
Will Howard run for 4 yds Kansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIZ 11Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
44.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 10 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:4945% → 48%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
44.5%
Brady Cook run for 6 yds to the MIZ 31Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
44.7%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 30Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
44.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for 6 yds to the MIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
44.7%
Brady Cook run for 4 yds to the MIZ 40Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+13
44.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 13 yds to the KSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
47.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 47 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:4854% → 53%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
46.2%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
46.3%
Will Howard run for no gain to the KSU 40Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
46.7%
Will Howard pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 4FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:0448% → 50%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
47.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 15 yds to the KSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
48.0%
Cody Schrader run for 2 yds to the KSU 30Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+16
48.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 16 yds to the KSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
48.0%
Brady Cook run for a loss of 4 yards to the KSU 18Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 14
OPP 18
+6
49.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for 6 yds to the KSU 12Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
49.2%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+30
49.7%
Harrison Mevis 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5551% → 50%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.5%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
49.4%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for a loss of 2 yards to the KSU 26Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
49.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 7 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
50.2%
Jack Blumer punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 6MISSED FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:1250% → 51%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
49.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 8 yds to the MIZ 43Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
50.9%
COOK, Brady pass up the middle incomplete intended for WEASE, Theo thrown to the MIZ50. PENALTY KSU Offsides on SAVAGE, Kobe enforced 5 yards from the MIZ43 to the MIZ48 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
50.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 13 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
51.1%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the KSU 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
52.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the KSU 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
51.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+53
50.9%
Harrison Mevis 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 4:4650% → 56%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
50.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
50
+11
49.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 11 yds to the MIZ 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
49.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 7 yds to the MIZ 32Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+4
48.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the MIZ 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
48.5%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
48.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the MIZ 24Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+21
49.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 21 yds to the MIZ 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
48.5%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the MIZ 3Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
48.5%
Will Howard run for no gain to the MIZ 3Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
44.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2947% → 55%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
46.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 41 yds to the KSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+27
49.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 27 yds to the KSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
50.0%
Cody Schrader run for 6 yds to the KSU 1Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
50.0%
Cody Schrader run for a loss of 1 yard to the KSU 2Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
48.8%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd to the KSU 1Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.2%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 38 yds · 3:1147% → 45%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.4%
Will Howard pass complete to DJ Giddens for 3 yds to the KSU 28Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
53.2%
DJ Giddens run for 10 yds to the KSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+34
52.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 34 yds to the MIZ 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
50.1%
Will Howard sacked by Realus George Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 31Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 13
OPP 31
-6
50.7%
Will Howard sacked by Daylan Carnell for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 37Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 19
OPP 37
0
52.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 19
OPP 37
+45
55.5%
Chris Tennant 55 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:0156% → 55%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
56.2%
Brady Cook run for 7 yds to the MIZ 44Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
57.5%
Cody Schrader run for 4 yds to the MIZ 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
57.5%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the MIZ 48Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
57.0%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-6
56.6%
Brady Cook sacked by Jevon Banks for a loss of 6 yards to the MIZ 42Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
54.9%
Riley Williams punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5642% → 41%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
57.7%
Will Howard sacked by Johnny Walker Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the KSU 16Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+5
58.2%
Will Howard pass complete to RJ Garcia II for 5 yds to the KSU 21Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+4
58.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the KSU 25Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
59.5%
Jack Blumer punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0856% → 56%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
56.3%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
56.2%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the MIZ 33Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+3
55.0%
Cody Schrader run for 3 yds to the MIZ 36Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
55.5%
Riley Williams punt for 53 yds, downed at the KSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
58.6%
[NH] Kneel down by KSU at KSU10 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:1056% → 55%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
55.8%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIZ 20Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 20
-7
55.6%
Brady Cook sacked by Daniel Green for a loss of 7 yards to the MIZ 13Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 18
OWN 13
-5
54.1%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Tre'Vez Johnson) to the MIZ 8Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 23
OWN 8
+8
53.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 8 yds to the MIZ 16Similar
Q3 12:44
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
55.1%
Riley Williams punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 15FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:3747% → 52%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
52.9%
DJ Giddens run for no gain to the MIZ 44Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
53.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 10 yds to the MIZ 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
51.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
51.2%
DJ Giddens run for 4 yds to the MIZ 30Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+2
52.6%
DJ Giddens run for 2 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
47.7%
Chris Tennant 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:3652% → 51%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
52.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Nathaniel Peat for a loss of 2 yards to the MIZ 23Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
51.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 15 yds to the MIZ 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
54.2%
Nathaniel Peat run for 4 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
55.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 1 yd to the MIZ 43Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-4
54.1%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIZ 39Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
51.2%
Riley Williams punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 5:5251% → 76%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
49.3%
Will Howard run for 7 yds to the KSU 33Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+1
47.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 1 yd to the KSU 34Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+2
48.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Keagan Johnson for 2 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
47.9%
Keagan Johnson run for 4 yds to the KSU 40Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+33
46.3%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 33 yds to the MIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
43.2%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
43.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 8 yds to the MIZ 19Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+15
44.8%
Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 15 yds to the MIZ 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-6
42.5%
Will Howard run for 4 yds Kansas State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Will Swanson) to the MIZ 12Similar
Q3 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
43.0%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 5 yds to the MIZ 7Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
42.4%
HOWARD, Will pass up the middle complete for 7 yards to JACKSON, Jadon caught at the MIZ15 and advanced to the MIZ0, TOUCHDOWN KSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 02:27 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on BROOKS, Phillip enforced 15 yards to the MIZ22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+19
44.1%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 19 yds to the MIZ 3Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.4%
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 18FG
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:5132% → 41%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
31.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 26 yds to the KSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+42
36.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 42 yds to the KSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
35.7%
Cody Schrader run for no gain to the KSU 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
35.7%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
33.6%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
40.6%
Harrison Mevis 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:0166% → 67%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
33.9%
Avery Johnson run for 11 yds to the KSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
32.2%
Avery Johnson run for 3 yds to the KSU 39Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
31.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the KSU 42Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
31.2%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
33.4%
Jack Blumer punt for 47 yds, downed at the MIZ 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:0138% → 34%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
37.8%
Cody Schrader run for 5 yds to the MIZ 16Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 5
OWN 16
0
37.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 5
OWN 16
-5
36.1%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Luther Burden III) to the MIZ 11Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+14
35.8%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 14 yds to the MIZ 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.3%
Brady Cook run for 1 yd to the MIZ 26Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
37.9%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
36.1%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
34.3%
Riley Williams punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5371% → 71%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
29.0%
DJ Giddens run for 3 yds to the KSU 38Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+5
27.4%
DJ Giddens run for 5 yds to the KSU 43Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
27.7%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:53
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
29.4%
Jack Blumer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22TD
2 plays · 77 yds · 0:2937% → 75%
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
37.1%
Kansas State Penalty, Personal Foul (VJ Payne) to the KSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
75.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 26 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 23FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:5935% → 53%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.9%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
65.5%
WARD, Treshaun rush to the left for a loss of 4 yards to the KSU21 (HOPPER, Ty'Ron). PENALTY MIZ Personal Foul on GADDY, Nyles enforced 15 yards from the KSU25 to the KSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+33
61.6%
Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 33 yds to the MIZ 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
55.9%
Will Howard pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 4 yds to the MIZ 23Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+14
55.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 14 yds to the MIZ 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
55.9%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
55.9%
Avery Johnson run for 6 yds to the MIZ 3Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
58.5%
WARD, Treshaun rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the MIZ0, TOUCHDOWN KSU, score nullified by penalty, clock 05:54 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY Before the snap, KSU Delay Of Game on HOWARD, Will enforced 5 yards from the MIZ3 to the MIZ8. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
58.5%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
46.8%
Chris Tennant 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:3356% → 51%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
56.4%
Missouri Penalty, Delay Of Game (Brady Cook) to the MIZ 21Similar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+8
55.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 8 yds to the MIZ 29Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-3
56.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for a loss of 3 yards to the MIZ 26Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-5
53.2%
Missouri Penalty, False Start (Javon Foster) to the MIZ 21Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 15
OWN 21
0
52.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 15
OWN 21
0
51.2%
Riley Williams punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Phillip Brooks at the KSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KSUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:2155% → 48%
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
45.5%
Will Howard run for 5 yds to the KSU 44Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
44.0%
Avery Johnson run for 4 yds to the KSU 48Similar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
43.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:46
1ST & 10
50
0
42.8%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 10
50
-5
44.0%
Kansas State Penalty, False Start (Treshaun Ward) to the KSU 45Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 15
OWN 45
0
47.9%
Will Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+1
49.2%
Will Howard pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 1 yd to the KSU 46Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
52.3%
Jack Blumer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Luther Burden III at the MIZ 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 26FG
14 plays · 38 yds · 1:2557% → 96%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
56.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 5 yds to the MIZ 23Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+7
57.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for 7 yds to the MIZ 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
57.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Tyler Stephens for 5 yds to the MIZ 35Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+9
59.2%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 9 yds to the MIZ 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
61.5%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
59.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 8 yds to the KSU 48Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+9
62.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 9 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
63.6%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-5
63.7%
Missouri Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the KSU 44Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 15
OPP 44
0
62.8%
Brady Cook pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+61
96.1%
Harrison Mevis 61 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:24
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 26 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
+38.2
FG · Q4 0:00
Harrison Mevis 61 yd FG GOOD
+33.3
TD · Q3 1:39
Will Howard pass complete to Ben Sinnott for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Tennant KICK)
-19.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com